Title: University of North Texas
1A Falling Dollar, 100 Oil, and the Sub-Prime
Mess Is a Recession Inevitable?
- University of North Texas
- Center for Economic Development and Research
- http//www.unt.edu/cedr
- January 2008
2Real Economic Growth
Gross domestic product
3Q 2007 4.9
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007
Source Commerce Department
3Nonfarm Payrolls
Monthly change, in thousands
Dec. 07 18,000
05 2006
2007
Source Labor Department
4U. S. Jobless Rate
In percent, seasonally adjusted
06
2007
Source U.S. Department of Labor
5Personal Income
Total personal income in trillions of dollars,
before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates
Nov. 2007 11.87 trillion
2006
2007
Source U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of
Economic Analysis
6Retail Sales
Total retail sales in billions of dollars,
seasonally adjusted.
Nov. 2007 385.8 billion
06
2007
Source U.S. Commerce Department
7Construction Spending
In billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
Nov. 2007 1.17 trillion
2006
2007
Source Commerce Department
8Productivity
Nonfarm business productivity, percent change
from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally
adjusted
03 2004
2005 2006
2007
Source U.S. Department of Labor
9Oiloholics
10Twin Concerns
11History Lesson
12Industrial Production
Index, 2002100, seasonally adjusted
Nov. 2007 113.9
Source Federal Reserve Board
13Bigger Role in Economy
14Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
15Falling Dollar, Smaller Deficits
Source U.S. Census Bureau, JPMorgan Chase
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17Housing Starts
New private housing starts during the month, in
millions, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Dec. Starts 1.01
06
2007
Source Dept. of Commerce Dept. of H.U.D.
Census Bureau
18New-Home Sales
Single-family homes (in thousands)
Nov. 2007 647,000
Source Commerce Department
19Existing-Home Sales
Annual rate, in millions of dwelling units.
Nov. 2007 5.0 million
Source The National Association of Realtors
20Source Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007
21Source Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007
22Highest Subprime Exposure
Source Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007
23Subprime Loans in 2006
Source Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2007
24Dip in Household Ownership
25Home Value Decline
26Bankruptcies on the Rise
27Credit Cards Get more Use
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29Construction Lending And Sub Prime Loans
30Producer Prices
Percentage change from previous month, seasonally
adjusted.
05 2006
2007
Source Labor Department
31Consumer Prices
Percentage change, month to month (seasonally
adjusted)
0
2006
2007
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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34Consumer Confidence Index
From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households,
1987 100
Nov. 2007 87.3
2006
2007
Source The Conference Board
35Leading Indicators
Index of 10 indicators designed to lead, or
predict overall economic activity 1996 100.
Nov. 2007 136.3
05 2006
2007
Source The Conference Board
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37Unemployment Rate, U. S., Texas, D/FW
U. S. Texas Seasonally Adjusted D/FW not
Seasonally Adjusted
U. S. Dec. 2007 5.0 Texas Nov. 2007
4.1 D/FW Nov. 2007 4.0
Source Texas Workforce Commission
38Payroll Employment in Dallas-Plano-Irving
Metropolitan Division1999-2006 (annual averages)
Through October 2007 Source Texas Workforce
Commission