Climate Change

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Environmental Ethics Policy Conference, Royal
Dublin Society, Tuesday 9 October
Climate Change What does it mean ?
for Ireland
Dr. Rowan Fealy Irish Climate Analysis and
Research UnitS
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We cannot change our lifestyle because of the
possibility of climate change we just need to
fix the biosphere. Sir John Houghton, author of
Global Warming the Complete Briefing (2004)
quoting from a conversation with a senior
administrator in the United States
"And God blessed Adam and Eve and said, Multiply
and fill the earth and subdue it you are the
masters of the fish and the birds and all the
animals" Genesis 228
Much of the debate over global warming is
predicated on fear, rather than science. I called
the threat of catastrophic global warming the
greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American
people. James M. Inhofe, US Senator
Chairman Environment Public Works Committee
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the science behind the myth
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The Greenhouse Effect
enhanced greenhouse effect
natural greenhouse effect
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Long-term variations in climate
Interglacial
Glacial
Ice core data from Lake Vostok, Antarctica
Source http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data
_glacial3.html
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The scientific basis for climate change has a
long and well established tradition..
1827-first recognised the warming effect of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. He used the
analogy of the glass in a greenhouse, which led
to the name greenhouse effect.
1860- John Tyndall, measured the absorption of
infrared radiation by CO2 and water vapour.
1896- calculated the effect of an increase in
concentration of greenhouse gases. He estimated
that 2x CO2 would increase global average
temperatures by 5-6ºC.
Experiment Jean Baptiste Fourier 1760-1830
Experiment John Tyndall 1820-1893
1940-calculated the warming due to increasing
carbon dioxide due to the burning of fossil fuels.
CO2 measurements Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Calculation Svante Arrhenius 1859-1927
Observation Guy Callendar 1897-1964
Climate modelling and prediction
Measurement Charles Keeling 1928-2005
Prediction Syukuro Manabe 1935-
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Composition of the atmosphere
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cold
greenhouse gases
warm
Incoming Short wave Radiation
Outgoing Long wave Radiation
Earths surface
Blanketing effect of greenhouse gases
(Source Houghton, 1997)
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Estimating the Natural Greenhouse Effect
                                               
         
 
Net Incoming Solar Energy
Outgoing Heat Energy

(S0 (1-A) ?R2)
(4?R2kTe4)
where
S0 is the solar constant A is average albedo, or
reflectivity R is the radius of the earth k is
Boltzmanns constant Te is earths apparent
temperature (seen from space)
Te
equals -18?C
?
However, average global surface T is 15?C
Natural greenhouse effect warms the surface by
33?C
?
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The Natural Greenhouse Effect
-57oC
-18oC
-46oC
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Industrial Revolution
Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O)
over the past 1000 years (Source IPCC)
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Long-term variations in climate
Interglacial
Glacial
Ice core data from Lake Vostok, Antarctica
Source http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data
_glacial3.html
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Global Average Temperatures
Global average temperature has increased by
0.74C between 1906-2005. This trend appears to
have accelerated in the past three decades
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Source National Research Council (2006)
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Decline in sea ice extent from 1978-2005 (8 per
decade). (Source NSIDC)
A widespread retreat of mountain glaciers outside
of the polar regions has taken place and sea-ice
thickness in the Arctic has decreased by 40
during the late summer/early autumn. (Larsen B
Ice Shelf Antarctica 2002)
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Upsala Glacier, Argentina
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Fox Glacier, New Zealand
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Source NASA
Sea-level rising by 1-2 mm yr-1.
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So, whats all the concern about?
Surely, warmer temperatures will mean
and barbecues
more sun bathing
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....rising temperatures are also likely to
increase the incidence of droughts and floods.
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European Heat wave 2003
Impacts Death Toll 35,000 Extensive forest fires
in Portugal. Five per cent of the countryside and
ten per cent of the forests were destroyed, an
estimated 4,000 km². In Germany, rivers were at
their lowest this century, and shipping could not
navigate the Elbe or Danube. Melting glaciers
in the Alps caused avalanches and flash floods in
Switzerland
very likely (confidence level gt90) that human
influence has doubled the risk of a heatwave
exceeding this threshold magnitude Stott et al.
(2004) Nature
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Elbe Flood 2002
Dublin 2002
England 2007
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Global and Irish Temperature Anomalies
Source McElwain and Sweeney, 2007
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Source McElwain and Sweeney, 2007
Change in annual and seasonal mean temperatures,
1961-2005.
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Winter 2006/7 temperatures were well above normal
April 2007 warmest on record
Source http//www.met.ie/climate/monthly-summary.
asp
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Changing seasonal and spatial distribution of
precipitation in Ireland
Source Sweeney et al., 2002
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2006 Drought conditions in south east
2007 Wettest Summer in 50 years on east coast
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Winter
Summer
Change in number of days when precipitation is
greater than, or equal to 10mm.
Source McElwain and Sweeney, 2007
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Pollathomas Landslide
3-hour intense precipitation event resulting in
gt80mm of rainfall in the area (19th September
2003)
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Projected global average temperatures 2000-2100
Source IPCC, 2007
Relative to 1980-1999, best estimate for low
scenario (B1) is 1.8C (likely range is 1.1C to
2.9C), and for high scenario (A1F1) is 4.0C
(likely range is 2.4C to 6.4C). Broadly
consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR.
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Observed and Simulated ChangeNatural and
man-made factors


Observations (black), simulations (yellow) and
multi-model ensemble mean (red)
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Projected warming in 21st century expected to
be greatest over land and at most high
northern latitudes and least over the Southern
Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean
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European summer temperatures of 2003 normal by
2040s, cool by 2060s
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Whats in store for Ireland?
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Source Fealy and Sweeney, 2007
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Source Fealy and Sweeney, 2007
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There is an uneven distribution of surface water
resources in Ireland
Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources
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Ryewater
Boyne
Catchment characteristics play a crucial role in
determining impacts on water resources
Source Murphy and Charlton, 2007
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Implications for habitats and ecosystems
Source Sweeney et al., 2003
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Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
Barley yield in Ireland 19611990, 20412070 and
20612090.
Source Sweeney et al., 2003
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Potato yield in Ireland 19611990, 20412070 and
20612090
Source Sweeney et al., 2003
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Trend/Decade in the temperature indices for the
A2 ensemble over the 1961-2099 period. All trends
significant at 0.01 level (Source Fealy and
Sweeney, 2007).
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Trend/Decade in the precipitation indices for the
A2 ensemble over the 1961-2099 period. All trends
significant at 0.05 level or less (Source Fealy
and Sweeney, 2007).
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Source Fealy, 2003
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Relationship between temperature and mortality in
Ireland
Source Cullen, unpublished
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Greenhouse Gas emissions per capita 2003
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Emissions by sector 1990-2004
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UNFCCC Article 2 objective is to stabilise
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate
system. In response, the EU adopted a long term
climate protection target to limit global mean
temperatures to no more than 2oC above
pre-industrial levels. atmospheric greenhouse
gas concentrations would need to be stabilised at
levels close to 450ppm CO2 equivalent to limit
global warming to 2oC Atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations are currently at 425ppm CO2
equivalent.
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Summary of potential impacts and vulnerabilities
for Ireland.
Source McElwain and Sweeney, 2007
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• Global Impacts and Vulnerabilities
• up to 2ºC above pre-industrial levels would
  exacerbate current key impacts, and trigger
  others, such as reduced food security in many
  low-latitude nations. At the same time, some
  systems such as global agricultural productivity
  could benefit
• 2 to 4C above pre-industrial levels would result
  in an increasing number of key impacts at all
  scales, such as widespread loss of biodiversity,
  decreasing global agricultural productivity and
  commitment to widespread deglaciation of
  Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets
• greater than 4ºC above pre-industrial levels
  would lead to major increases in vulnerability,
  exceeding the adaptive capacity of many systems
• Some regions will be especially affected, e.g.
  the Arctic, Africa, esp. the sub-Saharan region,
  small islands and Asian Megadeltas, such as the
  Ganges-Brahmaputra and the Zhujiang are most
  vulnerable

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But if we are to avoid having to make dramatic
and economically destructive decisions in the
future, we must act soon. Lord Browne, CEO BP
(Foreign Affairs, July/August 2004)
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Source Parry et al., 2001 Meinshausen, 2004.
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Warming of the climate system is unequivocalas
is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change
Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations Inter
governmental Panel on Climate Change
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Whats the use of having developed a science
well enough to make predictions , if in the end
all were willing to do is stand around and wait
for them to come true? Professor Rowland, who in
1974 discovered the link between CFCs and
destruction of ozone
"A technological society has two choices first
it can wait until catastrophic failures expose
systemic deficiencies, distortion and
self-deceptions. Secondly, a culture can provide
social checks and balances to correct for
systemic distortion prior to catastrophic
failures Mahatma Gandhi
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References Fealy, R. (2003) The Impacts of
Climate Change on Sea Level and the Irish coast
in Sweeney, J. et al (2003) (ed) Climate Change
Scenarios and Impacts for Ireland. Environmental
Protection Agency, Johnstown Castle, Wexford.
Fealy, R. and Sweeney, J. Statistical
downscaling of precipitation for a selection of
sites in Ireland employing a generalised linear
modelling approach, International Journal of
Climatology, in press. McElwain, L. and Sweeney,
J. (2006) Implications of the EU climate
protection target for Ireland. Environmental
Protection Agency, Ireland. McElwain, L. and
Sweeney, J. (2006) Key Indicators of climate
change for Ireland. Environmental Protection
Agency, Ireland. McElwain, L., Sweeney, J. and
Fealy, R. Key Climate Change Indicators for
Ireland and their Projected Changes for Mid
Century Using Statistical Downscaling Techniques,
Transactions of the Institute of British
Geographers, submitted. Meinshausen, M., 2004.
Working Group I The Climate Challenge. Brussels,
22 November 2004. Parry, M.L., Arnell, N.,
McMichael, T., Nicholls, R., Martens, P., Kovats,
S., Livermore, M., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A.
and Fischer, G. (2001) Millions at risk Defining
critical climate change, Global Environmental
Change 11(3) 181183. Sweeney, J., Brereton, T.,
Byrne, C., Charlton, R., Emblow, C., Fealy, R.,
Holden, N., Jones, M., Donnelly, A., Moore, S.,
Purser, P., Byrne, K., Farrell, E., Mayes, E.,
Minchin, D., Wilson, J. and Wilson, J. (2003)
Climate Change Scenarios and Impacts for
Ireland, Environmental Protection Agency,
Johnstown Castle, Wexford, 229pp. Sweeney, J.,
Donnelly, A., McElwain, L. and Jones,M. (2002)
Climate Change Indicators for Ireland,
Environmental Protection Agency, Johnstown
Castle, Wexford, 71pp.