PUBLIC OPINION AND GOVERNMENT POLICY

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PUBLIC OPINION AND GOVERNMENT POLICY
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3 Possible Relationships

• Public opinion as restraint on policy makers
• Public opinion as a source of strong pressure on
  policy makers
• Public opinion ignored by policy makers

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FACTORS ENHANCING INFLUENCE OF PUBLIC OPINION

• Salience of issue the more salient the issue,
  the greater the influence of public opinion, as a
  constraint or as a positive influence
• The relationship between public opinion, proposed
  policies and constitutionally protected rights
  also affects the likely role of public opinion

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Expecting public opinion to be influential

• Publicly elected officials have strong motivation
  to anticipate public opinion in order to get
  elected or reelected (BUT do they take the
  public into account when in office?)
• People tend to vote for politicians that seem to
  be like them (BUT politicians are NOT like
  ordinary people)
• Politicians may feel morally obliged to comply
  with publics wishes (BUT some politicians
  believe they are elected so as to exercise their
  own independent judgment)
• Over time, we would expect linkage between
  interests of groups and government policy (but
  some interests do not have a powerful voice
  against the power elite)

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What happens in practice?

• 2/3rds of the time, govt policies have been
  consonant with majority public opinion
• 2/3rds of the time govt policy follows changes in
  direction of public opinion
• Large public opinion changes, esp. on highly
  salient issues, more likely followed by changes
  in government policy
• Modest correlations between public opinion in
  given congressional districts and roll call
  voting by district representatives in Congress
  (esp. for salient issues less for foreign policy
  issues
• Modest correlations between public opinion and
  policy on particular issues, at state levels

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How do Politicians assess Public Opinion?

• Issue by Issue or
• By using general changes in public ideology as a
  guide to how the public feels?
• Some research finds connections between general
  shifts in public self identification in terms of
  liberal / conservative and policy-making

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Does opinion shape policy?

• (1) Is it opinion that shapes policy or (2) does
  policy shape opinion, or (3) does something else
  determine both opinion AND policy?
• Political parties, seeking to win elections and
  responsive to public mood, adopt policies that
  then shape opinion, and two thirds of the time
  parties enact campaign pledges that are
  consistent with majority opinion when they get
  into office.
• Other research notes the considerable influence
  of polls on office holders
• Yet other research sees a significant role for
  the MEDIA in influencing the relationship between
  opinion and policy-making

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If policy does respond to opinion, is this good?

• On the face of it, policy responsiveness to
  public opinion supports democratic, BUT
• Slavish concern for the support of majority of
  public opinion may not serve the NATION, or the
  WORLD, with the best, longer-term policies
• Concern for the longer term good of the whole may
  be more rather than less democratic.