Ending the Oil Addiction: What will it Take?

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Ending the Oil Addiction What will it Take?

• Dr. Kyle Forinash
• Professor of Physics
• School of Natural Sciences
• Indiana University Southeast
• New Albany, IN,USA

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World energy needs are projected to increase by
more than 55 in the next 20 years.
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Why will we need more energy?
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Fortunately ...
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Developed nations consume the most energy.
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Developed nations have similar uses for energy.
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86 of the worlds energy comes from fossil fuels.
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In 1956 M. King Hubbert predicted that US oil
production would peak in the early 1970s.
Excerpt from Hubbert's original paper
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Oil Production in the US did peak in the early
1970s.
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Originally Hubbert fit approximately bell shaped
curves to the data by hand.
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• Input parameters
• Current consumption, N(t) at year t.
• Cumulative consumption up to year t.
• Total reserves QT.

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Later workers have used the Logistic Equation.
Production rate
or
Cumulative production at time t
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Other methods give different results. US
Geological Survey prediction of peak year for oil
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Proven oil reserves have increased over time
but....
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The size of newly discovered oil fields has been
decreasing with time for 40 years.
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Oil and many other resources appear to fit
Hubbert's model of production.
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Fossil fuel resources are a finite source.
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Sample Hubbert analysis results.
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Transportation accounts for 1/5 of world energy
use.
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New technology of the of the past 20 years has
been used to make cars bigger and faster.
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Gasoline will be hard to replace.

• Fuel Energy per Weight (MJ/kg)
• Hydrogen 114 (10 liquid 5 compressed gas)
• Gasoline 48
• Crude Oil 43
• Plant Oil (Bio-Diesel) 38
• Ethanol 28
• Common Coal 22
• Natural Gas (STP) 20
• Air Dried Wood 15
• Potatoes 4
• Carbon Fiber Flywheel 0.8
• Lithium Batteries (at 400C) 0.2
• Lead Batteries 0.1

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So what kind of car should I buy?
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It takes energy to make energy.(All fuel
conversion processes lose energy.)

• Process Conversion
  Type Efficiency
• Dry Cell Battery Chemical to
  Electrical 85-95
• Natural Gas to Compressed Chemical to
  Chemical 85
• Crude Oil to Gasoline Chemical to Chemical 79
• Natural Gas to H2 Chemical to Chemical 60
• Coal to Gasoline Chemical to Chemical 50
• Grid Electric to H2 Chemical to Chemical 22
• Photo-Voltaic Radiative to Electrical 15-25
• Soybean to Bio-Diesel Chemical to Chemical 30
• Corn to Ethanol Chemical to Chemical 5-10
• Plant Photosynthesis Radiative to
  Chemical 4-5

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Problems with hydrogen as a car fuel.

• H2 is not a fuel (requires energy to make).
• H2 is more difficult to transport and more
  dangerous than diesel, gasoline, propane or
  natural gas.
• H2 will require a new distribution grid (compared
  to existing electric grid).
• 40 energy loss to make H2 from natural gas.
• 30 energy loss to make H2 from electricity
  (hydrolysis).
• 50 energy loss to compress H2.
• 40 energy loss in fuel cell to create
  electricity.

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Problems with plant oil as a car fuel.

• Total possible energy production, all arable land
  (1.6x106 km2)
• In US cultivated with soybeans (bio-diesel) 25.6
  Quad Btu
• US transportation consumption (2004) 27.8 Quad
  Btu

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Not all processes have the same
efficiency.(Thermal engines are less efficient
than electrical engines.)

• Process Conversion
  Type Efficiency
• Large Electric Generator Mechanical to
  Electrical 98-99
• Large Electric Motor Electrical to
  Mechanical 90-97
• Home Gas Furnace Chemical to Thermal
  90-96
• Small Electric Motor Electrical to
  Mechanical 60-75
• Fuel Cell Chemical to Electrical 50-60
• Large Steam Turbine Thermal to
  Mechanical 40-45
• Diesel Engine Thermal to Mechanical 30-35
• Gasoline Engine Thermal to Mechanical 15-25
• Florescent Lights Electrical to
  Radiative 15-25
• Incandescent Lights Electrical to Radiative
  2-5

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The second law of thermodynamics limits the
efficiencies of heat engines.(Thermal to
mechanical processes.)
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Combined efficiency is limited by the least
efficient step.
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So what else can we do? (Change our way of
life?!?)
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(No Transcript)
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Other energy use.

• Industry accounts for 1/4 of world energy use
• Combined heat and power (CHP) systems can be 85
  efficient.
• Buildings (lighting, heating, cooling,
  refrigeration, hot water, appliances) account for
  1/3 of world energy use
• Low emissivity window coatings (5 US total
  energy lost in 1973).
• Buildings exist which are heated entirely from
  internal processes (no furnace).
• Advanced lighting (50 efficiency possible).
• Appliance improvements (new refrigerators use 75
  less energy than in 1974).

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Will conservation hurt our standard of living?
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Will conservation hurt the economy?
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What about renewables?
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Choices for renewable energy.
(food crops, grassy and woody plants, residues
from agriculture or forestry, organic component
of municipal and industrial wastes, fumes from
landfills)
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Land area needed to supply all energy used, 2005,
with solar. (20 efficiency solar cell, 50
storage and transmission loss.)

• Country Annual Energy Use (Quad Btu) Land
  Needed
• Argentina 2.7 0.2
• China 46.6 4.7
• Denmark 0.88 3.7
• Egypt 2.8 0.4
• France 11.2 3.7
• Ghana 0.1 0.1
• Japan 22.4 10.8
• Russia 17.1 0.3
• UK 9.8 7.8
• US 98.8 1.9

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Nuclear choices.

• Death and cancer rates much lower for nuclear
  than coal, oil or natural gas use.
• France gets 75 of electricity from nuclear
  (19.6 for the US, 17 for world in 2003).
• 'Inherently safe' reactors (pebble bed, modular
  design, few moving parts, smaller).
• The radioactive waste problem (vitrification,
  fuel recycling).
• Fusion First reactor by 2050?

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Conclusion There is no silver bullet.

• Use of oil is going to decline coal shale oil
  will last a while longer (but CO2 is a problem).
• Hydrogen, plant fuel are probably not good ideas.
• Conservation should play a big role.
• Use of renewables should be increased wind,
  biomass, hydroelectric, and especially solar.
• Use of electric power should be increased where
  possible because of higher efficiency.
• Nuclear power may be a necessary evil.
• New sources? Methane hydrates?

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