The%20Puget%20Sound%20Regional%20Environmental%20Prediction%20System:

1
The Puget Sound Regional Environmental Prediction
System An Update
2
Can we create an integrated regional
environmental modeling system for research and
prediction by coupling preexisting models and
using all operational data assets?
3
(No Transcript)
4
Current MM5 Configuration

• The Penn. State/NCAR mesoscale model V3.5 is
  being run
• twice a day at 36/12/4 km horizontal grid
  spacing. 38 levels forced by the NCEP Global
  Forecast System (GFS) run
• 0 to 72h for 36/12
• 0 to 48 h for 4 km
• Twice a day at 36/12km grid spacing forced by the
  NCEP Eta Model (available sooner)

5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
Some Comments

• A 4-km model does NOT resolve 4-km scale
  featuresmore like 20-25 km.
• There are major issues (problems) in the physical
  parameterizations that we are actively working to
  improve, such as
• Moist physics
• Land surface and boundary-layer physics
• Radiation schemes

10
Tahoma A 30 processor SUN ES 6500 with 4 GB
Memory
11
Ensemble a 20 processor athlon cluster
12
WRF Cluster The Most Powerful Computer
32-Processor Athlon Linux Cluster
13
The Audience for PNW MM5 Products Continues to
Increase
14
Current MM5 System

• Model forecasts are verified against all regional
  observations
• Model graphics are available on the web
• Model grids are shipped to some consortium
  members (e.g., NWS)

15
A Vision of an Integrated Regional Modeling System

• Output from the MM5 is now being fed into a
  number of modeling and diagnostic systems
• Distributed Hydrological Model for Western
  Washington (PRISM Major Support)
• Calgrid Air Quality Model
• Land Surface Model for Surface Temperature
  Prediction
• Smoke, Ventilation, and Fire Guidance
• Transportation Information System
• And hopefully soon will be integrated with others
  (e.g. Puget Sound)

16
(No Transcript)
17

• Terrain - 150 meter aggregated from 30 meter
  resolution DEM
• Land Cover - 19 classes aggregated from over 200
  GAP classes
• Soils - 3 layers aggregated from 13 layers (31
  different classes) variable soil depth from 1-3
  meters
• Stream Network - based on 0.25 km2 source area

18
DHSVM Distributed Hydrological Prediction System
19
Calgrid Air Quality Prediction System
20
(No Transcript)
21
Washington State DOT Traveler Information System
22
(No Transcript)
23
U.S. Forest Service Smoke and Fire Management
System
24
(No Transcript)
25
(No Transcript)
26
Ventilation Index
27
U.S. Forest Service

• MM5 grids are sent to the field for running
  Eulerian and Lagrangian smoke plume/dispersion
  models.
• MM5 output used for fire fighting operations.

28
Military Applications

• The NW MM5 is now the main source of regional
  forecasts for Navy and Air Force operations at
  Whidbey NAS and McChord Air Force Base, as well
  as the Everett Carrier homeport.

29
Ensemble Forecasting

• A major push has been made toward ensemble
  forecasting using the MM5.
• The goal is to provide probabilistic predictions,
  including forecasts of model skill.
• The MM5 is now being run at 36/12 km resolution
  with approximately 15 different initializations
  and lateral boundary conditions

30
Regional Ensemble Configuration

• Makes use of the differing initializations (and
  boundary conditions) from major operational NWP
  centers (e.g., NCEP, Navy, Canadian, UKMET,
  Australian, Taiwanese, etc).
• Early results very encouraging (e.g., using
  ensembles to predict forecast skill)

31
(No Transcript)
32
(No Transcript)
33
(No Transcript)
34
(No Transcript)
35
Relating Forecast Skill and Model Spread
Mean Absolute Error of Wind Direction is Far Less
When Spread is Low
36
Regional Observational Database

• Since the mid-1980s, have collected all
  available data networks in the Pacific NW
• Data collected and quality controlled in
  real-time
• Database used to create regional analyses
  available on the web and shipped to some
  consortium members.
• The database is used for verification of the
  regional MM5 forecasts.

37
(No Transcript)
38
PugetSound
39
Research on Physical Parameterizations

• IMPROVE To improve moist physics in mesoscale
  models using data from the Pacific Northwest.
  Multi-investigator project. Data from a major
  field experiment
• PBL Parameterization Project Evaluation and
  improvement of MM5 PBL schemes. Sponsored by
  the Forest Service

40
Should we go to higher resolution over Puget
Sound?Perhaps 1.3 km?
41
Modeling Winds in the Columbia Gorge
Cascade Locks
Portland
Troutdale

• Strongest winds are at the exit

42
The Future

• Hopefully, 1.3 km grid spacing domains will be
  added over Puget Sound and the Columbia Gorge
• Major physics improvements
• Seven-day runs at 36-12 km resolution
• Maturation of the ensemble system
• .and

43
Mesoscale Climate Forecasting

• Computer power is now available to run at high
  resolution (12km) for 5-10 years
• Driven by GCM climate predictions, could gain
  insights into local implications of global
  warming.