American Statistical Association ASA Committee on Energy Statistics

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American Statistical Association (ASA)
Committee on Energy Statistics

• Guy F. Caruso, Administrator
• Energy Information Administration (EIA)
• Washington, DC
• April 6, 2006

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Since the Last Meeting

• EIAs Outlook for 2006
• Eliminating MTBE (Methyl Tertiary-Butyl Ether)
  from Gasoline
• EIA Considers Challenges in Expanding EIA-914
  Data to Include Crude Oil Production
• EIAs Newest Internet Data Collection Systems
• Revised Guidelines on Voluntary Reporting of
  Greenhouse Gases
• EIAs Website Improvements
• EIAs Current Budget Activity
• DOE's Five Year Plan for FY 2007-2011
• External Review Team

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EIA Outlook 2006EIA Reassessed Its Long-term Oil
Price Projection

• The AEO2006 reference case includes much higher
  world oil prices than previous AEOs
• Key change in EIAs expectations about oil prices
• EIA has reexamined the willingness of oil-rich
  countries to expand production capacity
• Cost of doing business increasing

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World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2004 dollars per
barrel)
World oil price is the weighted average price of
imported low sulfur light crude oil.
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Eliminating MTBE from Gasoline

• Petroleum Companies announced intent to remove
  Methyl Tertiary-Butyl Ether (MTBE) from gasoline
  in 2006
• Driven by State bans due to water contamination
  concerns
• Industry intends to transition before 2006 summer
  driving season
• Could cause short-term impact on motor gasoline
  supply/price
• This impacts EIA data collection and modeling

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EIA-914 Expansion of Data

• Monthly survey of natural gas production may be
  expanded to include crude oil production
• There will be a presentation by John Wood
  highlighting the challenges

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EIAs Newest Internet Data Collection Systems
(IDCs)

• Launched several new IDCs
• EIA-6A, Coal Distribution Report (Annual)
• EIA-63A, Annual Solar Thermal Collector
  Manufacturers Survey
• EIA-63B, Annual Photovoltaic Module/Cell
  Manufacturers Survey
• EIA-858, Uranium Marketing Annual Survey
• There will be a session on the development of a
  Functional Requirements Document for the next IDC
  System

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Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program
Revised Guidelines

• Responds To 2002 Presidential Directive
• Reduce U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity By 18 By
  2012
• Improve Accuracy, Reliability Verifiability Of
  Submitted Data
• In Excess of 200 Companies Currently Report
• Registered Reductions Encourage
• Entity-wide Reporting
• High Quality Emissions Inventory
• Revisions
• Cause Major Redesign Of Program
• Become Effective June 1, 2006
• Fully Implemented During 2007

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Website Improvements

• EIAs new site became live in November
• Kids Page currently being evaluated through
  customer survey
• Popular page on website (300,000 users in
  February 2006)
• Goal is to improve content and navigation

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Current Budget Activity

• EIAs FY 2006 Budget
• EIA received an 85.3M appropriation
• Increase of 1.5M from FY 2005
• Funds 370 FTEs
• EIAs FY 2007 Budget Request
• EIA requested 89.8M
• Increase of 4.5M from FY 2006
• Funds 375 FTEs

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DOEs Five Year Plan for FY 2007-2011

• Plan highlights specific long-term goals to
  measure progress
• Timeliness of EIA Products 90 percent meet
  release date targets.
• Quality of EIA Products 90 percent or more of
  customers are satisfied.
• Efficiency Measure Actual survey costs will be
  less than baseline adjusted for inflation.
• EIA looking at strengthening recruitment
  strategies
• May need committees help with ideas, candidates,
  etc.

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External Review Team

• Team members are
• Kathy Cooper
• Denny Ellerman (Chair)
• Jay Hakes
• Paul Joskow
• Phil Sharp
• Met in July and November, 2005
• Expected to report this spring

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EIAs 30th Anniversary Celebration!

• In 2007 EIA will celebrate its 30th Anniversary
• There will be a series of educational programs
  throughout the year
• Wed like to have ideas/input from the committee
• We welcome committee participation as speakers at
  these events

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