Changing Energy Production Structures and CO2 Emissions in the ASEAN Countries: Decomposition Analys

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Changing Energy Production Structures and CO2
Emissions in the ASEAN Countries Decomposition
Analysis of Drivers Behind the Changes

• Authors Vehmas, Jarmo, Luukkanen, Jyrki,
  Kaivo-oja, Jari, Snäkin, Juha-Pekka Jusi, Sari
• Note This is extended version of conference
  paper materials.
• Venue International Conference on Energy
  Security and Climate Change Issues, Strategies,
  and Options (ESCC 2008) Sofitel Centara Grand,
  Bangkok, Thailand. 6-8 August 2008
• Presentation by
• Dr, Research Director Jari Kaivo-ojaFinland
  Futures Research CentreTurku School of
  EconomicsRehtorinpellonkatu 320500
  TURKUFinlandEmail jari.kaivo-oja_at_tse.fiTel.
  358-50-50207030

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5 Effects analyzed by decomposition analysis

• The objective of decomposition analysis in this
  article is to divide the observed change in
  carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fuel
  combustion into contributions of different
  factors of interest identified in the master
  equation (Equation 1).

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Effects explained..

• As a result of the complete decomposition
  analysis presented above, five different factors
  (effects) are identified in a way that their sum
  equals to the total change of CO2 emissions from
  fuel combustion.
• The effect of CO2/TPES refers to the contribution
  of the change in the CO2 intensity of the entire
  energy system to CO2 emissions. A positive value
  indicates that decreased CO2 intensity has
  decreased CO2 emissions. In practice, change in
  CO2 intensity is a result of several things.

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Effects explained

• The effect of TPES/FEC refers to the efficiency
  of the energy transformation system, i.e.
  efficiency in transforming primary energy into
  different energy carriers such as electricity or
  heat. This can be influenced by e.g. a switch
  from fuel use to electricity use, or vice versa,
  or technological changes in fuel combustion such
  as a shift from separate heat and electricity
  production to combined heat and power production
  (CHP) or vice versa.
• The effect of FEC/GDP refers to the energy
  intensity of the whole economy. This can be
  influenced by several factors, such as changes in
  the industrial structure from energy intensive to
  less energy intensive industrial branches, a
  shift from industrial production towards services
  in terms of GDP shares, or technological
  development inside energy-consuming fields of the
  economy. This effect is another one which is
  widely studied with decomposition analysis. In
  the most common applications a structural effect
  related to energy intensity changes have been
  identified and analysed. The structure in this
  context deals with the shares of FEC and GDP in
  different economic sectors and industrial
  branches, for example.
• The effect of GDP/POP refers to the amount of
  economic activity per capita which can be
  influenced foremost by economic growth.
• The effect of POP refers to changes in the amount
  of population brought about by changing birth and
  death rates as well as changes n international
  migration.

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CO2 emissions in the ASEAN countries, 1971-2005
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GDP index 1971-2005
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Development of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion
and GDP (PPP)in the ASEAN vcun
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TPES by energy source in Brunei, 1980-2005
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TPES by energy source in Indonesia, 1980-2005
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TPES by energy source in Malaysia, 1980-2005
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TPES by energy source in Myanmar, 1980-2005
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TPES by energy source in Philippines, 1980-2005
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TPES by energy source in Singapore, 1980-2005
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TPES by energy source in Thailand, 1980-2005
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TPES by energy source in Vietnam, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in Indonesia, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in Malaysia, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in Myanmar, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in Philippines, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in Singapore, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in Thailand, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in Vietnam, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in China, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in India, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in U.S.A., 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in Japan, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in the World, 1980-2005
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Decomposition of CO2 emissions from fuel
combustion in OECD Europe, 1980-2005
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Short summary

• In this paper, we have analysed empirically the
  reasons which have caused a change in CO2
  emissions from fuel combustion in the ASEAN
  countries using the data from International
  Energy Agency (IEA). Instead of an ordinary
  three-factor (activity, intensity and structural
  effects) decomposition analysis, a new method
  capable of taking five different factors into
  account has been used.
• The CO2 emissions per capita are considerably low
  in many ASEAN countries (except Singapore), but
  the emissions are increasing fast due to the
  rapid economic growth and increased reliance on
  fossil fuels. The emission intensities in the
  countries have been increasing in the
  industrialization process, but with shift to more
  service sector oriented production and higher
  level of GDP per capita, the intensities can
  decrease. However, the trend of increasing CO2
  emissions is difficult to cut due to the
  increasing population.

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I thank you for attention!
Dr, Research Director Jari Kaivo-ojaFinland
Futures Research Centre (FFRC) Turku School of
Economics (TSE) Rehtorinpellonkatu 320500
TURKUFinlandEmail jari.kaivo-oja_at_tse.fiTel.
358-50-50207030