The Riksbank

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The Riksbanks forecasting performance

• Deputy Governor Svante Öberg

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Figure 1. GDP outcomes and forecastsAnnual
percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 2. Employment outcomes and forecasts
Annual percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 3. CPIX outcomes and forecastsAnnual
percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 4. Productivity outcomes and forecasts
Annual percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 5. Forecasting memory, GDPPercentage
points
Kvartal
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 6. Forecasting memory, employment
Percentage points
Kvartal
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 7. Forecasting memory, productivityPercent
age points
Kvartal
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 8. Forecasting memory for the
KPIXPercentage points
Kvartal
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 9. Correlations between forecasts and
outcomes for the different variablesAnnual rates
of change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 10. Mean error for forecasts, an annual
rate Percentage points
Forecast horizon (quarterly)
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 11. Ranking for GDP
following yearPer centNote. The Y-axis shows
how large a percentage of times analysts have
been better than the percentage of analysts as
illustrated in the X-axis. In order to see how
large a proportion of times the Riksbank has been
better than 50 per cent of other analysts, see 50
on the X-axis, then study the red column on the
Y-axis.
Sources Statistics Sweden, the National
Institute of Economic Research, Consensus
Forecasts and the Riksbank
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Figure 12. Ranking for the CPI following yearPer
cent Note. The Y-axis shows how large a
percentage of times analysts have been better
than the percentage of analysts as illustrated in
the X-axis. In order to see how large a
proportion of times the Riksbank has been better
than 50 per cent of other analysts, see 50 on the
X-axis, then study the red column on the Y-axis.
Sources Statistics Sweden, the National
Institute of Economic Research, Consensus
Forecasts and the Riksbank
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Figure 13. The CPIX with uncertainty bandAnnual
percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Figure 14. Repo rate with uncertainty bandPer
cent, quarterly averages
Source The Riksbank