A1260873930Kglvi

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Colonial El Niño Famines (1876-1900) Mike Davis,
Late Victorian Holocausts El Niño Famines and
the Making of the Third World (2001) argues that
the policies of European landlords, merchants and
bureaucrats during El Niño drought intensified
these famines and thereby caused millions of
deaths.
Estimated death tolls 1876-79 Famine India est.
by Digby 10.3 M est. by Maharatna 8.2 M est. by
Seavoy 6.1 M China Broomhall 20 M Bohr
9.5-13 M Brazil 0.5-1.0 M (Cunniff)
1896-1900 Famine India The Lancet 19.0
M Maharatna 8.4 M Seavoy 8.4 M Cambridge 6.1
M China 10 M (Cohen) Brazil 1.0-1.5 M (Smith)
TOTAL 31,700,000 to 61,300,000 deaths
20th Century Warming--if it aint one thing, its
another Warming began in the 1890s and continues
to this day with interruptions. The period 1900
to 1939 saw a high incidence of westerly winds
and mild winters, characteristic of a positive
North Atlantic Oscillation. WWI weather was an
exception.
Global mean temperatures seem to have risen
between 0.4 and 0.8C since 1860 and about 0.2 to
0.3C since 1900 in some places. Temperatures
appear to be at their highest since 1400AD. The
period between June and September 1998 was the
second warmest period since 1934. 67 of winters
since 1980 have been warmer than the long-term
average. 20th century increases in solar
radiation may account for half of the warming
observed.
Friis-Christensen, E., and K. Lassen, "Length of
the solar cycle An indicator of solar activity
closely associated with climate," Science, 254,
698-700, 1991.
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European Climate Change
Global Warming Models Labeled 'Fairy Tale' By
Team of Scientists 11-21-02 original post date
5-15-02 - Washington - A team of international
scientists Monday said climate models showing
global warming are based on a "fairy tale" of
computer projections. Hartwig Volz, a
geophysicist with the RWE Research Lab in Germany
questioned the merit of the climate projections
coming from the United Nations sponsored
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC.)
The IPCC climate projections have fueled
worldwide support for the Kyoto Protocol, which
aims to restrict the greenhouse gases thought to
cause global warming. Volz noted that the IPCC
does not even call the climate models
"predictions" and instead refers to them as
"projections" or "story lines." Volz said the
projections might be more aptly termed "fairy
tales." S. Fred Singer, an atmospheric physicist
with the University of Virginia and the
Environmental Policy Project, called the IPCC's
global warming projections "completely
unrealistic." "Prediction is a very difficult
business, particularly about the future," he
said. Singer accused the IPCC of "assuming
extreme scenarios of population growth and fossil
fuel consumption" and called on the Bush
administration to "assemble another team using
the IPCC report -- using the same facts" to
"write a different summary." Dr. Ulrich Berner, a
geologist with the Federal Institute for
Geosciences in Germany, said global temperatures
have varied greatly in the earth's history and
are unrelated to human activity. "The climate of
the past has varied under natural conditions
without the influence of humans," Berner said.
Berner also declared that an extensive analysis
of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the ice
core of Greenland showed that elevated CO2 in the
atmosphere does not necessarily lead to
temperature increases. "There are numerous
temperature changes which are not mimicked by the
CO2 concentration," Berner explained. "Carbon
Dioxide doesn't police climatic changes. Climatic
changes have always occurred and will for the
future always occur," Berner added. Singer
agreed, stating, "The balance of evidence
suggests that there has been no appreciable
warming since 1940. This would indicate that the
human effects on climate must be quite small."
Singer pointed to the sun as a major culprit in
climate change. "The sun is responsible for most,
and perhaps all of the short-term climate changes
we observe," he said.
'Mud and rain and wretchedness and blood'. Why
should jolly soldier-boys complain? God made
these before the roofless Flood Mud and
rain. Mangling crumps and bullets through the
brain, Jesus never guessed them when He
died. Jesus had a purpose for His pain, Ay, like
abject beasts we shed our blood, Often asking if
we die in vain. Gloom conceals us in a soaking
sack Mud and rain. (Diaries 102)
Northern and Western Europe experienced more
rainfall, as mud-bound troops on the Western
Front in 1916 experienced. Soldiers said they
experienced "constant rain, gray skies, and mud
everywhere. We sink into it up to our knees,
sloppy dreadful stuff that rots our feet. No one
fights on either side, we just suffer silently in
the wet. The spring of 1916 was abnormally bad.
Rain poured down for several weeks without
ceasing. Mud became a problem after artillery
shells had torn up the French landscape. Some
places it was 4-5 feet deep, and made travel
impossible.
Canadian practice battle, Toronto
Canadian practice trench, Winnipeg
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Dead Man's Trench Looking at the trenches of the
enemy line, They are marching in endless rows of
nine by nine. As I sit in the mud, it makes me
sick. Like slime, the mud just seems to stick.
Looking at my gun, barrel full of mud, So
that's why my last shot seemed to be a dud. I
hear a big bang and everyone starts to run
wildly. Then I notice that half the army is
right behind me. Still sloshing through the mud,
I come to the end of the line.
This additional precipitation continued into the
1920s and 1930s as sub-polar cyclones became
larger and spread their wind circulation further
into the Arctic.
The warming increased the length of the growing
season in Western Europe by as much as two weeks
compared with mid-19th century. After 1925,
Alpine glaciers disappeared from valley floors up
into the mountains. Equivalent stronger
westerlies over the Pacific extended the arid
rain shadow of the Rockies eastward causing the
droughts of the dust bowl in Oklahoma in the
1930s. This came after the North American farmers
made tremendous technological (and financial)
advances for feeding Europe. They farmed areas
that had formerly been unsuitable before the
excess rains of the 1910s and 1920s.
The drought hit first in the eastern part of the
country in 1930. In 1931, it moved toward the
west. By 1934 it had turned the Great Plains into
a desert. "If you would like to have your heart
broken, just come out here," wrote Ernie Pyle, a
roving reporter in Kansas, just north of the
Oklahoma border, in June of 1936. "This is the
dust-storm country. It is the saddest land I have
ever seen."
The Dust Bowl lasted about 10 years and changed
America as well as the rest of the world because
of the side effects that resulted.
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"The land just blew away we had to go
somewhere." -- Kansas preacher, June, 1936
The average American was busy buying automobiles
and household appliances, and speculating in the
stock market, where big money could be made.
Those appliances were bought on credit, however.
Although businesses had made huge gains -- 65
percent -- from the mechanization of
manufacturing, the average worker's wages had
only increased 8 percent. Ultimately this leads
to the Great Depression.
Air temperatures around the world peaked in the
early 1940s. Locations at the edge of the Arctic
like Iceland and Spitzbergen experienced more
warming than Europe. The area covered by pack ice
decreased by 10 to 20. Snow levels moved up
slope. Ships could visit Spitzbergen 7 months of
the year rather than the 3 months before 1920.
The distribution and variability of rainfall
altered over much of the world too.
WWII weather leads to the turning point
The winters of the early 1940s stalled Hitler's
attempt to conquer Russia. Millions died in the
cold near Stalingrad.
The first onslaught of Operation Barbarossa in
1941 had carried the German armies to the
outskirts of Moscow and Leningrad. In summer 1942
Hitler's main target was the oil fields of the
Caucasus - their capture would deprive the
Russians of their fuel supply. An army was to
advance down the Volga to Astrakhan and
ultimately Baku.
Vasily Zaitsev
The change in atmospheric circulation brought
much more reliable monsoon winds to India which
experienced only two partial monsoon failures
between 1925 and 1960, compared to the
catastrophic failures of the late 19th century
when millions of Indian Villagers died in famines.
Simultaneously the German 6th Army was ordered to
take Stalingrad- 'smash the enemy forces
concentrated there, occupy the town and block
land communications between the Don and the
Volga'.
The warmer and wetter weather that followed led
scientists to began talking about the possibility
of occupying and farming land farther to the
north, and other benefits of the warming. Then,
it started to get cold again. In the 1950s a
change in circulation lowered global temperatures
to the level of 1900-20. The winter of 1962-3 was
the coldest in England since 1740. It was cold
again in 1965-6, and in 1968, Iceland was
completely surrounded by sea-ice.
1970s
The 1972-3 El Niño was coupled with a change in
atmospheric circulation. Although the 1972-3 El
Niño generated a lot of basic research, it was
the big one in 1982-3 that surprised everyone and
led to its current mass media coverage.
NYC, 1973
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Global warming leads to more snow?
Burnett, Mullins, Kirby, and Patterson, Journal
of Climate, 2003
Other climate changes in the 20th
century Although there are some regional
anomalies, there is evidence that climate change
has had an impact in the Arctic and the
Antarctic. Many documented changes parallel those
forecast to result from climate change. In the
Arctic, extensive land areas show a 20th-century
warming trend in air temperature of as much as
5C. Over sea ice, there has been slight warming
in the 1961-1990 period and precipitation has
increased. Arctic sea-ice extent has decreased by
2.9 per decade over the 1978-1996 period sea
ice has thinned, and there are now more melt days
per summer. Sea-ice extent in the Nordic seas has
decreased by 30 over the past 130 years.
It is not yet clear whether changes in sea ice of
the past few decades are linked to a natural
cycle in climate variability or have resulted
explicitly from global warming. Atlantic water
flowing into the Arctic Ocean has warmed, and the
surface layer has become thinner. The mixed layer
in the Beaufort Sea has become less saline.
Regions underlain by permafrost have been reduced
in extent, and a general warming of ground
temperatures has been observed in many
areas. There has been a statistically
significant decrease in spring snow extent over
Eurasia since 1915. In summary, many
observations of environmental change in the
Arctic show a trend that is consistent with
warming and similar to that predicted by general
circulation models (GCMs).
In the Antarctic, over the past half-century
there has been a marked warming trend in the
Antarctic Peninsula. Elsewhere there is a
general but not unambiguous warming trend.
Precipitation in the Antarctic has increased.
Satellite observations show no significant change
in Antarctic sea-ice extent over the 1973-1996
period. Analysis of whaling records and
modeling studies indicate that Antarctic sea ice
retreated south by 2.8 degrees of latitude
between the mid-1950s and the early 1970s.
Surface waters of the Southern Ocean have warmed
and become less saline.
Impacts Substantial warming and increases in
precipitation are projected for polar regions
over the 21st century by almost all climate
models. There are eight key concerns related to
the impact of this climate change in the Arctic
and Antarctic. Associated with these concerns
will be changes to the atmosphere and the oceans
that will propagate to other regions of the world
1. Changes in ice sheets and polar glaciers
Increased melting is expected on Arctic glaciers
and the Greenland ice sheet, and they will
retreat and thin close to their margins. Most of
the Antarctic ice sheet is likely to thicken as a
result of increased precipitation. There is a
small risk, however, that the West Antarctic and
Greenland ice sheets will retreat in coming
centuries. Together, these cryospheric changes
may make a significant contribution to sea-level
rise.
2. Changes around the Antarctic Peninsula This
region has experienced spectacular retreat and
collapse of ice shelves, which has been related
to a southerly migration of the January 0C
isotherm resulting from regional warming. The
loss of these ice shelves has few direct impacts.
Projected warming is likely, however, to break up
ice shelves further south on the Antarctic
Peninsula, expose more bare ground, and cause
changes in terrestrial biology, such as
introduction of exotic plants and animals.
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3. Changes in the Southern Ocean and impacts on
its life Climate change is likely to produce
long-termperhaps irreversiblechanges in the
physical oceanography and ecology of the Southern
Ocean.
Projected reductions in sea-ice extent will alter
under-ice biota and spring bloom in the sea-ice
marginal zone and will cause profound impacts at
all levels in the food chain, from algae to krill
to the great whales. Marine mammals and birds,
which have life histories that tie them to
specific breeding sites, will be severely
affected by shifts in their foraging habitats and
migration of prey species. Warmer water will
potentially intensify biological activity and
growth rates of fish. Ultimately, this should
lead to an increase in the catch of marketable
fish, and retreat of sea ice will provide easier
access to southern fisheries.
A 40,000 year record of isotope values from
penguin eggshells tells a story of athropogenic
effects and natural climate variation for the
Antarctic.
Cape Evans Hut, 1911-1917
Krill Surplus Hypothesis Extensive slaughter of
whales and seals in 19th and 20th centuries in
Southern Ocean Reduced whale populations by 90-95
, still in recovery Caused near extinction of
Antarctic and sub-Antarctic Fur Seals
(Arctocephalus gazella and A. tropicalis) Resulted
in gt150 tons excess krill
History of Exploitation (Ellis, 1991) Sealing
began on Falklands in 1766 and on South Georgia
Island in 1786 In 1775, 13,000 fur seal skins
were taken from Falklands by one ship 1793-1807,
est. 3.2 million fur seal skins taken by 1819
operations moved into Antarctic Peninsula 300,000
skins taken from AP in four years, industry
ends Whaling began in earnest by late 1800s
4. Changes in sea ice There will be substantial
loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. Predictions
for summer ice indicate that its extent could
shrink by 60 for a doubling of carbon dioxide
(CO2), opening new sea routes. This will have
major trading and strategic implications. With
more open water, there will be a moderation of
temperatures and an increase in precipitation in
Arctic lands. Antarctic sea-ice volume is
predicted to decrease by 25 or more for a
doubling of CO2, with sea ice retreating about 2
degrees of latitude.
5. Changes in permafrost Thickening of the
seasonally thawed layer above permafrost (active
layer) is expected. Modeling studies indicate
that large areas of permafrost terrain will begin
to thaw, leading to changes in drainage,
increased mass movements, thermal erosion, and
altered landscapes in much of the Arctic and
subarctic.
Warming of permafrost, thawing of ground ice, and
development of thermokarst terrain have been
documented over the past several decades. In
developed areas of the Arctic, continuation of
such changes may lead to costly damage to human
infrastructure.
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6. Changes in Arctic hydrology The hydrology of
the Arctic is particularly susceptible to warming
because small rises in temperature will result in
increased melting of snow and ice, with
consequent impacts on the water cycle. There will
be a shift to a runoff regime that is driven
increasingly by rainfall, with less seasonal
variation in runoff. There will be more ponding
of water in some areas, but peatlands may dry out
because of increased evaporation and
transpiration from plants. In some areas, thawing
of permafrost will improve infiltration. An
expected reduction in ice-jam flooding will have
serious impacts on riverbank ecosystems and
aquatic ecology, particularly in the highly
productive Arctic river deltas.
Changes in Arctic runoff will affect sea-ice
production, deepwater formation in the North
Atlantic, and regional climate. A major impact
would result from a weakening of the global
thermohaline circulation as a result of a net
increase in river flow and the resulting
increased flux of freshwater from the Arctic
Ocean.
7. Changes in Arctic biota Warming should
increase biological production however, the
effects of increased precipitation on biological
production are unclear. As warming occurs, there
will be changes in species compositions on land
and in the sea, with a tendency for poleward
shifts in species assemblages and loss of some
polar species. Changes in sea ice will alter the
seasonal distributions, geographic ranges,
patterns of migration, nutritional status,
reproductive success, and ultimately the
abundance and balance of species. Animals that
are dependent on sea icesuch as seals, walrus,
and polar bearswill be disadvantaged.
High-arctic plants will show a strong growth
response to summer warming. It is unlikely that
elevated CO2 levels will increase carbon
accumulation in plants, but they may be damaged
by higher ultraviolet-B radiation. Biological
production in lakes and ponds will increase.
8. Impacts on human communities Climate change,
in combination with other stresses, will affect
human communities in the Arctic. The impacts may
be particularly disruptive for communities of
indigenous peoples following traditional
lifestyles. Changes in sea ice, seasonality of
snow, and habitat and diversity of food species
will affect hunting and gathering practices and
could threaten longstanding traditions and ways
of life. On the other hand, communities that
practice these lifestyles may be sufficiently
resilient to cope with these changes. Increased
economic costs are expected to affect
infrastructure, in response to thawing of
permafrost and reduced transportation
capabilities across frozen ground and water.
However, there will be economic
benefitsincluding new opportunities for trade
and shipping across the Arctic Ocean, lower
operational costs for the oil and gas industry,
lower heating costs, and easier access for
ship-based tourism.
Drought again
Between 1968 and 1973 prolonged drought in the
Sahel of the Sahara, killed 250,000 people and
many cattle. By 1985, 1.2 million people died.
Then suddenly, the NAO switched to high again and
the heat was on again. Record heat waves toasted
northern Europe in 1975-1976 weather extremes
seemed to be more common, hurricanes, droughts,
etc.
1970-85 Famine Blamed on Pollution Nearly two
decades after one of the world's most devastating
famines in Africa, scientists are pointing a
finger at pollution from industrial nations as
one of the possible causes.
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Desertification The United Nations Convention to
Combat Desertification (UNCCD, 1994) defines
desertification as "land degradation in arid,
semi-arid, and dry subhumid areas resulting from
various factors, including climatic variations
and human activities. Furthermore, UNCCD defines
land degradation as a "reduction or loss, in
arid, semi-arid, and dry subhumid areas, of the
biological or economic productivity and
complexity of rain-fed cropland, irrigated
cropland, or range, pasture, forest, and
woodlands resulting from land uses or from a
process or combination of processes, including
processes arising from human activities and
habitation patterns, such as (i) soil erosion
caused by wind and/or water (ii) deterioration
of the physical, chemical, and biological or
economic properties of soil and (iii) long-term
loss of natural vegetation."
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Arid, semi-arid, and dry subhumid areas include
those lands where the ratio of precipitation to
potential evaporation (PET) ranges from 0.05 to
0.65. In Africa, these conditions cover 13
million km2, or 43 of the continent's land
areaon which 270 million people, or 40 of the
continent's population, live (UNDP, 1997). Areas
particularly at risk include the Sahela 3.5
million km2 band of semi-arid lands stretching
along the southern margin of the Sahara
Desertand some nations that consist entirely of
drylands (e.g., Botswana and Eritrea). The death
of 250,000 people in the Sahel drought of
1968-1973 demonstrated the tragic human toll of
desertification.
Aridity zones for Africa as derived from mean
monthly precipitation and potential
evapotranspiration surfaces. Desertification in
Africa has reduced by 25 the potential
vegetative productivity of more than 7 million
km2, or one-quarter of the continent's land area.
Desertification consists more of degradation of
the productive capacity of patches well outside
open-sand deserts rather than the inexorable
encroachment of open sand onto greenlands. Arid
lands can respond quickly to seasonal
fluctuations. Indeed, analysis of 1980-1990 data
to track the limit of vegetative growth along the
Sahara-Sahel margin revealed wide fluctuations
The 1990 limit of vegetative growth lay 130 km
south of its 1980 position. Unfortunately, the
relative importance of climatic and anthropogenic
factors in causing desertification remains
unresolved. Some scientists have judged that
anthropogenic factors outweigh climatic factors
though others maintain that extended droughts
remain the key factor.
Nonclimatic Driving Forces of Desertification Unsu
stainable agricultural practices, overgrazing,
and deforestation constitute the major
anthropogenic factors among the forces that drive
desertification. Unsustainable agricultural
practices include short rotation of export crops,
undisciplined use of fire, and removal of
protective crop residues. Overgrazing consists of
running livestock at higher densities or shorter
rotations than an ecosystem sustainably can
support.

Finally, deforestation consists of permanent
clearing of closed-canopy forests and cutting of
single trees outside forests. Forest area in
Africa decreased by approximately 37,000 km2 yr-1
from 1990 to 1995. UNEP (1997) attributes
two-thirds of the area already desertified in
Africa to overgrazing and the remaining third to
unsustainable agricultural and forestry
practices. Population growth ultimately can drive
desertification if it intensifies exploitation or
if it increases the land area subjected to
unsustainable agricultural practices,
overgrazing, or deforestation. The total
population of Africa grew from 220 million in
1950 to 750 million in 1998a rate of 2.5 yr-1
(United Nations, 1999). Increasing food, wood,
and forage needs accompanying this growth place
an inordinate burden on the region's natural
resources.
Climatic Factors in Desertification
Precipitation and temperature determine the
potential distribution of terrestrial vegetation
and constitute principal factors in the genesis
and evolution of soil.
Extended droughts in certain arid lands have
initiated or exacerbated desertification. In the
past 25 years, the Sahel has experienced the most
substantial and sustained decline in rainfall
recorded anywhere in the world within the period
of instrumental measurements (Hulme and Kelly,
1997). Since 1971, the average of all stations
fell below the 89-year average and showed a
persistent downward trend since 1951. Because
evapotranspiration constitutes the only local
input to the hydrological cycle in areas without
surface water, reduction in vegetative cover may
lead to reduced precipitation, initiating a
positive feedback cycle.
Ethiopia 1984
Band Aid-- But say a prayer, pray for the other
ones At Christmas time it's hard, but when you're
having fun There's a world outside your window,
and it's a world of dread and fear Where the only
water flowing, is the bitter sting of tears And
the Christmas bells that ring, there are the
clanging chimes of doom Well tonight thank God
it's them instead of you Feed the world, Let them
know it's Christmas time Feed the world, Do they
know it's Christmas time at all?
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Degradation of vegetation cover in moister areas
south of the Sahel may have decreased continental
evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation in
the Sahel. A positive feedback mechanism between
vegetation cover and albedo may help to explain
the Sahel drought. Some research supports an
albedo-precipitation feedback mechanism. Degraded
land also may increase atmospheric dust and
aerosols, which influence precipitation. SST
anomalies, often related to ENSO or NAO, also
contribute to rainfall variability in the Sahel.
Lamb (1978) observed that droughts in West Africa
correlate with warm SST in the tropical south
Atlantic. Examining oceanographic and
meteorological data from the period 1901-1985,
scientists found that persistent wet and dry
periods in the Sahel were related to contrasting
patterns of SST anomalies on a near-global scale.
When northern hemisphere oceans were cold,
rainfall in the Sahel was low.
Injections of freshwater into the north Atlantic
(such as from glacial melt) decrease
salinitystabilizing the water column, inhibiting
deep convection, and reducing northern transport
of heat by the Atlantic thermohaline circulation,
which is driven by a north-south SST gradient.
This decreases evaporation from the ocean
surface, causing drought in the Sahel and Mexico.
From 1982 to 1990 a correlation was found between
ENSO-cycle SST anomalies and vegetative
production in Africa. Warmer eastern equatorial
Pacific waters during ENSO episodes correlated
with rainfall of lt1,000 mm yr-1 over certain
African regions. A combination of
factorsincluding vegetation cover, soil
moisture, and SSTbest explains the reduction in
rainfall in the Sahel. Changes in albedo, soil
moisture, land surface roughness, and SST
anomalies and calculated a rainfall deficit were
modeled over the Sahel similar to observed
patterns.
A coupled surface-atmosphere model indicates
thatwhether anthropogenic factors or changes in
SST initiated the Sahel drought of
1968-1973permanent loss of Sahel savanna
vegetation would permit drought conditions to
persist (Wang and Eltahir, 2000). Zeng et al.
(1999) compared actual rainfall data from the
period 1950-1998 with the output of a coupled
atmosphere-land-vegetation model incorporating
SST, soil moisture, and vegetative cover. Their
results indicate that actual rainfall anomalies
are only weakly correlated to SST by itself. Only
when the model includes variations in vegetative
cover and soil moisture does it come close to
matching actual rainfall data. Modeling the
importance of SST, sea ice, and vegetative cover
to the abrupt desertification of the Sahara
4,000-6,000 years ago, Claussen et al. (1999)
show that changes in vegetative cover best
explain changes in temperature and precipitation.
NORTH KOREA FAMINE COMPARED TO SOVIET UKRAINE
FAMINE IN 1933
North Korea- Korea suffered in 1995 from the
worst floods in a century. Severe floods
revisited Korea in 1996. In 1997, parts of the
country were hit with months of high temperatures
and drought. In August 1997, Typhoon Winnie
smashed coastal areas and devastated coastal rice
paddies.
"Andrew Natsios, administrator of the U.S. Agency
for International Development, has compared the
North Korean food shortage with famines that
killed 7 million people in the Soviet Ukraine in
1933 and 30 million people in China's "Great Leap
Forward" in the late 1950s." "Kim is an upgraded
version of Nazi Germany's Hitler," Dr. Vollertsen
(Doctors without borders) said after emerging
from North Korea. "He's committing genocide."
2000 and beyond
Falls Road Belfast
Afghanistan- drought of 2000
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(No Transcript)