Big Sky Regional Partnership: MT, SD, ID

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Big Sky Regional Partnership MT, SD, ID

• Phase I assessment of terrestrial potential
• Modeled using CENTURY, GIS
• Agriculture is currently a net C sink
• MT has greatest land base but
• SD has most cropland
• No-till in SD offers most
• potential

Current
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Climate data

• National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) monthly
  average precip, min/max temperature since 1895 by
  station and climate division.

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Generation of soil texture grids

• SSURGO/STATSGO map unit data extracted into
  sand/silt/clay grids. Bulk density from texture
• ENVI processing to generate soil classes
• Distributed soil classes within counties

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Historical and current agricultural management I

• Historical data from extension survey (SD), NASS
  crop databases, Census of Agriculture, anecdotal
  sources (types of crops, fertilizer use,
  irrigation)
• Conservation tillage and CRP data for 2002 from
  CTIC. No-till ZERO tillage
• For point simulations, represent spatial
  proportions of crops as temporal series
• 6 timeblocks 1900-35, 1936-45, 1946-65, 1966-82,
  1983-89, 1990-
• Assume grassland for baseline period

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Historical and current agricultural management II

• Assume no fertilizer before 1965
• Assume no irrigation unless gt50 of crop was
  irrigated
• Scenarios
• ct2ct continuous conventional tillage since 1900
• ct2nt conventional, change to no-till in 1990
• ct2crp conventional, change to CRP in 1990
• grz2grz continuous grazing since 1990
• grz2crp removal of grazing in 1990

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Historical and current agricultural management III

• No public lands in simulation
• Runs to 2030 (stochastic weather after 2003)
• For each state
• 8-10 climate divisions
• 17-19 soil classes
• 5 scenarios
• up to 900 separate simulations
• Distribute results over county/soil class cells,
  sum for county-level output

m2 applicable per county
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Results Land use distribution
km2 in each land use
Grazing/Pasture
Grazing/Pasture
Cropland - CT
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Carbon stock changes since 1990
Variability in annual ???C, Montana
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State-level C stock trends

25 NT
Default
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Role of Ag Soil C in State GHG Budgets
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Cheyenne River Sioux Reservation Pilot Trade
62,000 MTCE/5yrs
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