TSA Presentation

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TSA Presentation
31st October 2008

• Australian Telco Market moving into 2009

Paul Budde, Industry Analyst and Consultant Paul
Budde Communication Pty Ltd
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Paul Budde Communication
Global telecommunications research company
operating from Australia

• Consultancy - (strategic planning workshops,
  IPOs, business plans).
• Executive and Competitive Briefings.
• Annual Strategic Briefings (Australia, New
  Zealand, Asia,
• - Market updates Infrastructure, Wireless,
  Broadband, e-commerce).
• Board , Sales and Customer Presentations.
• Telecommunications Research (45 researchers in 25
  countries).
• Research Databases, 2,000 Web Report largest on
  the net.
• Ongoing support.

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Australian Annual Publications

• Mobile Communications - Statistics, Trends and
  Forecasts
• Telco Company Profiles - Telstra and Optus
• Telco Company Profiles - 2nd Tier
• Next Generation Telecoms FttH
• Broadband Market - Overview and Statistics
• Mobile Data and Content - The Wireless Broadband
  Explosion
• Utilities - Environmental Focus for Smart Grids
• Broadcasting and Pay TV
• Entertainment and Media Markets
• Government, E-Health, Energy and Tele-education
• Markets E-Commerce, Marketing and Advertising
• Entertainment and Media Markets
• Mobile and Wireless Broadband

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Global Trends and Strategies
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The Financial Crisis

• Will affect every industry including ours.
• More in developed than emerging markets.
• Capital will flow to more sustainable assets
  (i.e. infrastructure).
• Global mobile boom continues money to be made.
• Less ideology regarding national interest.

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From broadband to Next Generation Telecoms (NGT)

• In the 00s we began to talk about benefits of
  broadband
• infrastructure.
• To encompass more broader concepts, we now move
  to NGT
• new IT systems processes to facilitate new
  applications
• cost-effective efficient distribution of
  applications
• structures facilitating ubiquitous coverage,
  competition innovation
• effective use of infrastructure that operate in
  national interest.

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Global FttH boom is underway

• FttH trend started five yrs ago, in SE Asia
  (Japan Korea).
• Expanded to countries like Hong Kong, Malaysia
  Singapore.
• US also making good progress Europe now is now
  on its way.

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Communications revolution

• Internet is driving new social and economic
  developments.
• Users are starting to participate -
  interactive/personal.
• Increasingly video based.
• Wireless and Fixed in Developed Markets.
• Wireless to drive Fixed in emerging markets.
• From speculative to deployment investments.

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Energy/Comms Revolution

• Driven by climate change and the environment.
• Elite fossil fuels are peaking expensive.
• Alternative energy essential.
• User Generated Energy (UGE).
• Energy Exchanges (EX).

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Health/Comms Revolution

• Still a few years away health telco
  industries not ready.
• Will piggy back on NBN.
• Will account for 25 of comms activities.
• Health quality and affordability depend on NBN.

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Telecoms Transformation Essential

• Telecoms need to facilitate these revolutions.
• Dirt cheap broadband is the new fuel for the
  digital economy.
• Separation of infrastructure and services is
  essential for this to happen.

Outcome better infrastructure, competition,
innovation, national benefits
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Structural Separation

• Singapore is leading the way also facilitates
  M2M.
• Good results from Britain both for BT and
  competition.
• KPNs eyes have been opened to wholesale
  opportunities.
• Others are following.

Needed end-to-end open utilities based
infrastructure.
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National Broadband Plan
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Australia struggles with the concept of FttN

• Lack of decision-making/ongoing delays impede NGN
  rollout before 2009.
• Current infrastructure policies discussed in
  Australia already outdated.
• Overseas they are looking at FttH 20 to 50Mb/s
  for 2010-15.
• Australia talking about 12Mb/s over that same
  period.

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National Broadband Network

• NBN cant be built without Telstra.
• With open network policy, Telstra will encounter
  more competition.
• Will be forced to accept a lower ROI on
  infrastructure investments.
• Smaller slice of pie for Telstra, but pie size is
  increasing.
• Telstras attitude towards wholesale should
  change.
• In its interest to fill its NGN with as much
  traffic as possible.

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Open Access

• Industry price, price, price and price
• Government social and economic benefits
• Government/Industry competition, and innovation
• Key regulatory framework

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October 2008

• Process start to unravel
• No national discussion (shouting match)
• Flawed tendering process without a regulatory
  framework
• Government is forced into strong action
• Room for technology solutions?
• No firm decisions before 2009 rollout 2010

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NBN Outcomes

• NBN worse case 1 Telstra monopoly
• NBN worse case 2 ongoing battles 2010-2011
• NBN best case structural separation (delayed
  since 2004)
• Telstra runs the infrastructure
• Equal access to Telstra Retail, Optus and other
  Terria partners

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Special Offer to Delegates

• 2008 Australia - Telecoms Industry
• Statistics and Forecasts
• Special offer 820 (ex GST)
• Single-User PDF Licence
• Normal Price 1095 (ex GST)
• 2008 Australia Telecoms Analyses and Forecasts
• Special offer 746
• Single-User PDF Licence
• Normal Price 995 (ex GST)

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