Patents and Growth: Empirical Evidence from the States Glynn S' Lunney, Jr'

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Patents and Growth Empirical Evidence from the
StatesGlynn S. Lunney, Jr.
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Goals

• 1. Explore relationship between patenting and
  growth
• 2. Use results as natural experiment to predict
  likely winners-losers under TRIPs

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Solow or Neoclassical Model
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Solow and Convergence Baumols Empirical Test
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Endogenous Growth Human Capital
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A Search for Contributing Factors The Munnell
Example
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Patenting and Growth A First Look
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Patenting and Growth A First Look
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Patents and Economic Output
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Patents and Economic Output Fixed Effects Models

• Year Effects Year and State
  Effects
• ln Kt-1 0.356 0.196
  
• ln Lt 0.501 0.777
• ln Gt-1 0.0939 -0.1031
• ln Tt-1 0.0720 0.0625
• ln Tus,t-1 -0.8952 0.518
• ln Treg, t-1 -0.01971
  -0.0333
• Adj. R2 0.9949 0.9989

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Patents and Economic Output First Differences
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Patents and Output First Difference Results

• Regressor Both State and
  Year Effects
• ?ln Kt-1 -0.0107
• ?ln Lt 1.028
• ?ln Tt-1 0.0114
• ?ln Tus,t-1 0.1861
• ?ln Treg,t-1 0.1034
• Adj. R2 0.7830

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Patenting and Output By Patenting Quartile
Dependent Variable First Difference Log of Real
Annual State Output
Patenting Quartile Regressor
1st 2nd 3rd
4th ?ln Tt-1 0.0832
0.03005 0.0127 0.00544 (0.0001)
(0.0075) (0.3344)
(0.6883) ?ln Treg,t-1 0.0428
0.01091 0.1140 0.2371
(0.088) (0.6229) (0.0050)
(lt0.0001)