Climate 101

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Climate 101

• University of Washington
• Program on Climate Change

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What have you heard?
Global warming causing new evolutionary patterns
EXAGGERATED SCIENCEHow Global Warming Research
is Creating a Climate of Fear
Global warming could burn insurersActivists call
on industry to act
In a Shift, White House Cites Global Warming as a
Problem
Is Global Warming Fueling Katrina?
Research Links Global Warming to Wildfires
Rise in wild fires a result of climate change

Jellyfish creature the answer to global warming?
www.Scienceblog.com
Global warming increasing rockfalls in
Switzerland geologist
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Climate is what you expect Weather is what you
get

• Weather Different phenomenon that occur in the
  atmosphere of the planet over a short period of
  time, usually no more than a few days.
• Examples Current Temperature, Rainfall,
  Humidity, Solar radiation
• Climate The statistics (eg. average) of weather
  over a long period of time.
• Examples Average Temperature, Rainfall,
  Humidity, Solar radiation

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Our Questions Today

• What are Greenhouse Gases?
• How do they cause warming?
• How are humans affecting temperatures?
• How do we know?
• How might the Earths climate change?
• How might people mitigate and/or adapt to these
  changes?

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Greenhouse Gases
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Greenhouse Gases

• Every object emits radiation according to its
  temperature

• The sun is hot (7000 C)
• and emits radiation in the visible spectrum

• The Earth is cooler (20 C) and emits radiation
  mostly in the infrared

• Greenhouse gases are
• transparent to visible radiation
• Greenhouse Gases absorb IR radiation

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The Greenhouse Effect

• Key concept The energy entering the Earth must
  equal the energy coming out

NO GHGs
WITH GHGs
Reflected solar radiation
Balance between Incoming solar
Outgoing IR
Less IR makes it to space The Earth must emit
more IR- warm
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Most Important Greenhouse Gases

• GHGs Source Examples
• Water H2O Oceans, Rivers, Plants, Soil
• Carbon Dioxide CO2 Combustion, Respiration,
  Oceans,Volcanoes
• Methane CH4 Mining operations, Combustion,
  Animals, Wetlands, Oceans
• Other GHGs Nitrous oxide (N2O), Ozone (near
  surface), Halocarbons

http//www.for.gov.bc.ca
Source U.S. EPA 2005
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Human sources of Greenhouse Gases

• Fossil Fuel burning represents 81 of human
  sources of GHGs
• Fossil Fuels include coal, oil, and natural gas.

Source U.S. EPA 2005
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Total CO2 emissions since 1950 in billions of
tons
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Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change
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CO2 1958 to present
CO2 (ppm)
Year

• CO2 concentrations have increased since 1958
• Estimated increase of about 30 since 1850
• (280 ppm to 370 ppm)

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Instrumental Temperature Record
? Temperature ( C )
? Temperature ( F )
Source NOAA
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More Evidence Ice Cores

• Ice layers preserve information about each year

Sources NOAA, GISP2 websites
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Ice Core EvidenceCO2 and temperature, 420,000 BP
to present
2050
2100??
Today
Source various, (1) Vostok assembled by Davies
2000, (2) GISP2
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State of the Science

• Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change
  (IPCC) Fourth Assesment Report (2007)
• Global atmospheric concentration of carbon
  dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides greenhouse
  gases have increased markedly as a result of
  human activities since 1750 and now far exceed
  pre-industrial records... spanning many thousands
  of years.
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as
  is now evident from observations of
• Increases in global average air and ocean
  temperatures
• Widespread melting of snow and ice
• Rising global mean sea level
• Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperature ... is very likely due to
  the observed increases in anthropogenic
  greenhouse gas concentrations
• www.IPCC.ch

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Future Climate Changes
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What is a Climate Model ?
Geography Physics Forcing On a computer
gridded domain
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Using Computer Models to Understand Climate
All Climate Influences
Natural Climate Influence
Human Climate Influence
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Future climate change
Unregulated global economic development (status
quo)
global environmental regulation
Source IPCC 2001
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Future local climate change
Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100
Source Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005
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Impacts of Global Warming
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Worldwide Retreat of Mountain Glaciers
1981
1928
2000
Source USGS ca. 2005
South Cascades Glacier, OR
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Sea Level Rise
7-8 meters in Florida
1-5 meters in Bangladesh

• How far can it go? The last time the world was
  three degrees warmer than today which is what
  we expect later this century sea levels were
  25m higher. So that is what we can look forward
  to if we don't act soonI think sea-level rise is
  going to be the big issue soon, more even than
  warming itself
• Dr. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard
  Institute for Space Studies.
• The Independent 2/ 17/2006

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Loss of Sea Ice
Source Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
(2004)
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Carbon dioxide acidifies seawater
CO2
CO2
Atmosphere
Ocean
shelled-critters

• CO2 and carbonate (which plankton use to make
  shells) combine in the ocean.
• The ocean is already more acidic than it was 50
  years ago.

Source Alfred-Wegener-Institut
SEM photograph of E. hux
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Hurricanes and Climate Change

• Hurricanes are heat engines that get their energy
  from warm ocean waters

Sea surface temp. Hurricane Power

• Recent studies have shown an increase of average
  hurricane intensity associated with warming seas

SourcesEOS news Oct 2005, http//wind.mit.edu/
emanuel
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The Northwest is losing its mountain snow
Observed
Source Mote 2005, BAMS
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Climate and Ecosystems the Mountain Pine Beetle

• A massive outbreak of the mountain pine beetle in
  BC has killed 100 billion board feet (approx. 9
  years of harvest)
• Low temperatures (lt -10F) limit beetle activity
• A recent lack of extreme cold temperatures has
  allowed the beetle to thrive in epidemic numbers

Sources http//www.cses.washington.edu/cig,
http//www.for.gov.bc.cal
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Our Future Depends on Our Choices
www.ipcc.ch
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Our Future Depends on Our Choices
The technology needed to decrease emissions while
still powering our world exists today
The problem becomes more tractable if we attack
it in wedges.
Possible wedges

• Wind power
• (50 times current capacity)

• Carbon capture and storage
• (3,500 Sleipners)

• Efficient Vehicles
• (Change 2billion cars from 30mpg to 60mpg)

Other wedges Nuclear power, Reduced vehicle
usage, More effiecient buildings, Biomass fuels,
wind hydrogen cars, More efficient power plants,
Reduced deforestation, Conservation tillage, More
efficient power plants
Source Pacala and Socalo 2004
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Towards Mitigation and Adaptation
Reducing Greenhouse Gases and Planning for
Warming

• Government actions
• International agreements to reduce
  emissions (ie. Kyoto)
• National and regional agreements and laws
  (ie. US Mayors Climate Protection Agreement)
• Support and incentives for alternative energy

• Personal actions
• Reduce energy use
• at home
• drive less, drive efficiently
• As a consumer
• support businesses that are energy conscious
• Get political
• vote

Choices are difficult because they require value
judgments and long-term planning
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US Mayors Climate Protection Agreement
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Summary

• Human activities are increasing heat trapping
  greenhouse gases (like CO2) all over the world.
• As a result, the average temperature of the world
  is increasing 0.74?C since 1900
• Future warming of 1.8-4?C by 2100
• Climate change can/does/will have major effects
  on humans lives
• Future climate changes and impacts depend on our
  choices

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The End.

• University of Washington
• Program on Climate Change

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State of the Science

• Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change
  (IPCC)
• Human activities are modifying the
  concentration of atmospheric constituents that
  absorb or scatter energy Most of the observed
  warming over the last 50 years is likely to have
  been due to the increase in greenhouse gas
  concentrations
• National Academy of Sciences Greenhouse gases
  are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as result
  of human activities, causing surface air
  temperature and subsurface ocean temperatures to
  rise

• Similar Statements by
• American Meteorological Society
• American Geophysical Union

• Quantifying Consensus
• Searched scientific journals from 1993-2003 and
  randomly collected 928 publications
• None of the papers directly addressing global
  climate change disagreed with the basic consensus
  of IPCC quoted above

SourceOreskas, Science 2004
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Impacts of Global Warming

• Societal
• Water resources (droughts, snowpack,)
• Industries (ski industry, )
• Air quality
• Health (spread of disease carriers, heat waves,)
• Forestry
• Conflicts over resources
• Agriculture
• Refugees
• New usable land
• New Arctic shipping routes

• Physical
• Sea level rise
• Ecosystem disruption
• Changes in extreme events
• Rainfall
• Hurricanes (intensity)
• Droughts
• Loss of winter snowpack
• Loss of Sea ice
• Permafrost
• Changing climate zones
• Coral Death (ocean acidification)

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Our Future Depends on Our Choices
Also Important Preparing to deal with future
climate changes

• Preparing for water shortages
• Preparing for sea level change
• Preparing for ecosystem impacts
• Prepare for surprises

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Predicting Future Climate Change
Animation
Schematic of a GCM
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Effects on salmonid life-cycle
winter flooding
low summer streamflow higher temp.
possible effects still unknown
changing estuary conditions (prey, predators,
competitors)
Source Mote ca. 2005
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Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990
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Worldwide Retreat of Mountain Glaciers
1938
1981
1928
Grinell Glacier, Glacier National Park, MT
2000
Source USGS ca. 2005
South Cascades Glacier, OR
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Extras
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Extras Measured Arctic Summer Sea Ice Extent
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Sea level rise
IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)
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What have you heard?
Climate
Global Warming
Greenhouse Gases
Fossil Fuels
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Ice Core Records
Climate Change
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Vegetation carbon in 2070-2100
Modeled Change in Vegetation
Current vegetation as seen from satellite
Source Nielson ca. 2005 NASA Landsat Geocover
2000
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As the West warms, winter flows rise and summer
flows drop Figure by Iris Stewart, Scripps Inst.
of Oceanog. (UC San Diego)
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Greenhouse gases and Earths energy balance
H2O, O3, CO2, CH4, N2O, halocarbons
Source Murray ca. 2005
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United States CO2 emissions for 1999
US EPA
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Potential impacts of Climate change
Source United Nations Environment Program,
http//www.grida.no/climate/vital/20.htm
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Carbon Cycle
Deep ocean 38100
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Number of Hurricanes
Source Webster et al., Science Vol 309, 16 Sept
2005, pp 1844-1846
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• Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier
  Records
• Johannes Hans Oerlemans

Submitted on November 2, 2004Accepted on
February 18, 2005
Accepted on February 18, 2005

• Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier
  Records
• Johannes Hans Oerlemans

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Future global climate change

• Model predictions of global average temperature
  increases by 2100 range from 2 to 4.5C (4-8
  F)

Source IPCC 2001
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Sea Level Trends
Source US EPA, http//yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/global
warming.nsf/content/ClimateTrendsSeaLevel.html
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Source http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear
ch/2006/apr/global.html
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Who we are
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Observations of CO2

• CO2 concentrations have increased since 1958
• Estimated increase of about 30 since 1850
• (280 ppm to 370 ppm)

Source Murray ca. 2005
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Sea Ice vs Glaciers
Sea Ice
Glacier (Ice Sheet)
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State of the Science

• Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change
  (IPCC)
• Human activities are modifying the
  concentration of atmospheric constituents that
  absorb or scatter energy Most of the observed
  warming over the last 50 years is likely to have
  been due to the increase in greenhouse gas
  concentrations
• National Academy of Sciences Greenhouse gases
  are accumulating in Earths atmosphere as result
  of human activities, causing surface air
  temperature and subsurface ocean temperatures to
  rise

• Similar Statements by
• American Meteorological Society
• American Geophysical Union

• Quantifying Consensus
• Searched scientific journals from 1993-2003 and
  randomly collected 928 publications
• None of the papers directly addressing global
  climate change disagreed with the basic consensus
  of IPCC quoted above

SourceOreskas, Science 2004