Use of IFPS in Winter Weather Forecasting

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Use of IFPS in Winter Weather Forecasting

• Brian Motta
• NOAA/National Weather Service/Training Division
• IFPS Professional Development Series
• Winter Weather Workshop
• July 25, 2003

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Outline

• Current IFPS Training
• IFPS Software Update Update
• IFPS Methodology Workshops 2003
• IFPS Methodology Workshops 2004
• Regional Priorities for FY04
• National Training Plans for FY04

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Current IFPS Teletraining

• Change Grid Methodology Training (Tim Barker)
• -Teletraining this spring.huge response
• -Released in recorded VISITview form soon
• Collaboration Training (Shannon White/P.
  Howerton)
• - introductory, w/NDFD prototype cluster lessons
• - still very high priority with all regions and
  NCEP
• - requirement 7/24/03 winter scenarios/cases
• - recording done, release expected soon
• HPC Role in NDFD-Delta Grids,Collaboration
  (P.Manousos)
• TPC Tropical Cyclone Marine Grid Training
  (R.Knabb)
• - parallels to winter storms, suggests approach
• High-Impact/Profile,NCEP Role,Collaboration
• Multiple CWA/MARs Affected,
• Best-handled with probabilistic and
• categorical graphics

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IFPS Software Updatewhere are we now ?

• IFPS Build 14 Upgrade Near IOC
• GFE Development Shift in Fall
• From GFE Text Formatters
• To Science and ST/SI
• Fewer IFPS Builds Than Recently
• Incremental New Capabilities
• AvnFPS, V2 TWEB/TAF from grids
• Satellite/Radar
• Better Interpolation STs

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IFPS Methodology Workshops 2003

• Mostly IFPS FPs, some SOOs, leads
• Aligned with regions/neighbors
• Featured Focus in Each (Winter,Severe,Marine,Trop
  ical)
• Wide Range of WFO Capabilities
• Contributions from each WFO/RFC
• http//www.nwstc.noaa.gov/nwstrn/ifpsmethodwork.ht
  m

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IFPS Methodology Workshops 2003Winter Highlights

• Change Grid Methodology with SERP
• SmartTool Usage (teletraining/recorded)
• Wx vs. POP, POP vs. Wx Methodology
• Revelation about heavy, continuous use of ISC
  for WR GFE Development Team
• Winter Wx Experiment Lessons Learned-HPC
• WFO/RFC Contributions and Examples

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IFPS Methodology Workshops 2003WFO Contributions

• Use of Realtime MM5 in IFPS/GFE (SEW)
• Tools/Use- Static Climatology Grids (BIL)
• Grid Consistency/Completeness Procedures (SLC)
• Graphical Wind Wording Areas (ABQ)
• Matching Clouds/Fog/Drizzle (LOX)
• Wind Effects and Model Blend S/Ts (BOI)
• Edit Areas for Cold Pockets, Mid-slopes (GEG)
• RFC Use of WFO Grids- temp (NWRFC)

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IFPS Methodology Workshops 2003WFO Contributions

• SnowAmt Smart Tools (FGF,TOP)
• High Resolution QPF Forecasts with WsEta in GFE
  (BTV)
• HgrElev_TaperUp, LwrElev_TaperDown (BTV)
• Elevation_Snow_Vly_Rain (BTV)
• Marine- Freezing Spray (AK)
• Winter Weather Smart Tools (BOX,LOT,RLX)
• Snowlevel SmartTool (PIH)

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IFPS Methodology Workshops 2003WFO Contributions

• Importance of Shift-change Briefs (PIH)
• Smart Initialization of WsEta Winds (SGX)
• UpMtn/UpVly, DownMtn,DownVly STs (BOU)
• Using DFC and Temporal Editor for Timing/Updates
  (NWSTC)
• Displaying D2D Met Fields in GFE (NWSTC)
• Edit Areas
• Diurnal T Smart Tool (OUN)
• Reported Snow Graphics (IND)

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IFPS Methodology Workshops 2004

• Currently an open slate
• NDFD issues important (gateway to customers)
• National structure can help to organize
  capabilities and communicate realities to project
  and other managers
• Science training a recognized need
• Culture of continuous improvement and
• support needs to be effective and
• substantial
• Your feedback and discussion is welcome

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IFPS Regional Priorities for 2004

• ERCollaboration,Conflict management,
• Human Factors Tropical, GFE Formatters
• CR Winter Weather,Conditional QPF,
• GFE Formatters
• AR FireWx, Collaboration, Python,
• GFE Formatters
• WR Smart Tools, Smart Inits, FireWx,
• Python, 5th Methodology Workshop
• PR Marine, Tropical, Focal Point
• SR GFE Formatters, Boundary Layer Symposium,
  Smart Tool Basics Class (use),
• IFPS Operations Course (new staff)

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National Training Plans for FY04

• Science
• COMET COMAP Symposium on Boundary Layer
  Meteorology
• Methodology Workshops
• GFE Formatters
• Collaboration

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So, what should the role of a forecaster be? The
forecaster should

• make basic decisions regarding the forecast
  grids. This would include nudging existing grids
  toward a new run of an operational model, for
  example.
• be free to concentrate on the meteorological
  situation and to serve as a professional source
  for interpretative information regarding the
  basic gridded forecast.
• have time to pursue excellence in the Watch,
  Warning, and Advisory program.
• add a level of value to the gridded forecast
  anyone can provide a gridded forecast, we have
  the best professionals in the world and can do
  better.

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So, what are the most promising areas for the
forecaster to play a role in the gridded forecast
era?
1. The very short range forecast. This should
be of very high spatial and temporal resolution.
Basically the first day at 1-h resolution and on
a less than 5 KM grid. IFPS tools should be
used, in combination with data assimilation
systems, to blend between current weather and the
gridded forecast. This short-range arena is at
its infancy and should prove challenging to the
forecasters for many years. It is critical to
the severe weather program and others.
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2. To communicate directly with the users
uncertainty and value-added information regarding
the basic forecast grid for days 2 through 7.
Last month the Council of the American
Meteorological Society accepted a statement
arguing for a transition to probabilistic
forecasts. The currently proposed process goes
in the opposite direction, by posing one
solution, at very high resolution, through 7
days. We need to develop a suite of products
that forecasters can prepare to complement the
grids that will communicate this uncertainty.
This role for the forecaster also includes the
issuing of statements and warnings regarding
threatening weather.
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New Forecasting Process
National Centers Model Guidance

• Interactive
• Collaborative
• Information Oriented

Grids
Local Digital Forecast Database
Field Offices
National Centers
Collaborate
Data and Science Focus
NWS Automated Products
User-Generated Products
National Digital Forecast Database
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES
ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70.
Digital
Text
Graphic
Voice
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New Forecasting Process
National Centers
Field Offices
Local Digital Forecast Database
Collaborate
Secondary Function of Forecasters
Primary Function of Forecasters
Data and Science Focus
NWS Value-Added Products
User-Generated Products
National Digital Forecast Database
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES
ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70.
Digital
Text
Graphic
Voice