Climate Change:

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Climate Change its a matter of degrees...
Energy and Climate Change Symposium American
Academy of Arts and Sciences Stated
Meeting, Rosina Bierbaum, Dean and Professor,
University of Michigan October 7, 2007
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Take Home Messages

• Degrees of warming matter
• Mitigation makes a difference
• Committed to further climate changes
• Achieving the Millennium Development Goals
  becomes harder
• Its not just the averages that matter
• Regional vulnerabilities
• Multiple stresses
• Extremes
• Portfolio Approach
• Adaptation and Mitigation---integrate and need
  MORE OF BOTH

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Projected Impacts of Climate Change
IPCC, 2007
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(No Transcript)
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A world vulnerable to Climate Change

• ? Most impacts are will be negative, especially
  for the poorest, most vulnerable nations.
  Achieving the MDGs will be much more difficult.
• ? Water resources, coastal infrastructure,
  health, agriculture, and ecosystems will be
  challenged in virtually every region of the
  globe.
• ? International, regional, and national
  institutions are ill-prepared to manage climate
  change impacts. Enhanced preparedness/response
  strategies are a global priority.
• ? Both Mitigation and Adaptation are needed.
• A mitigation only strategy wont work because
  its already too late to avoid substantial
  climate change.
• An adaptation only strategy wont work because
  most adaptation measures become more costly and
  less effective as the magnitude of the changes to
  which one is trying to adapt gets larger.

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The Millennium Development Goals

• Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve,
  between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people
  living on less than 1/day and the proportion of
  people suffering from hunger.
• Achieve Universal Primary Education
• Promote Gender Equality Empower Women
• Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between
  1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate.
• Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between
  1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate
• Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By
  2015 have halted and begun to reverse the spread
  of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and
  other major diseases.
• Ensure Environmental Sustainability
• Develop a global partnership for Development

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The Millennium Development Goals

• Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve,
  between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people
  living on less than 1/day and the proportion of
  people suffering from hunger.
• Achieve Universal Primary Education
• Promote Gender Equality Empower Women
• Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between
  1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate.
• Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between
  1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate
• Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By
  2015 have halted and begun to reverse the spread
  of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and
  other major diseases.
• Ensure Environmental Sustainability
• Develop a global partnership for Development

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The Millennium Development Goals

• Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve,
  between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people
  living on less than 1/day and the proportion of
  people suffering from hunger.
• Achieve Universal Primary Education
• Promote Gender Equality Empower Women
• Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between
  1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate.
• Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between
  1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate
• Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases--By
  2015 have halted and begun to reverse the spread
  of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and
  other major diseases.
• Ensure Environmental Sustainability
• Develop a global partnership for Development

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1 hour ozone (ppb)
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Projected changes in extremes
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Adaptation Research is LaggingNRC Report on
CCSP (9/12/07)

• Understanding and predicting physical climate
  change is progressing well
• Declining observing capability
• Inadequate human dimensions funding
• 30 million lack of collaboration
• Inadequate progress
• in assessing impacts on human well being and
  vulnerabilities
• in providing knowledge to support decision making
  and risk analyses
• in communicating results and engaging
  stakeholders in a two-way dialogue

Evaluating Progress of the US CCSP Program
Methods Preliminary Results
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Adaptation options include management,
technology, institutions, monitoring, RD

• Prioritize lands to preserve
• Design of migration corridors
• Infrastructure to withstand new extremes
• Linking of reservoirs to enhance supply
• Seed banks, mass propagation techniques
• Emergency response plans
• Early warning alert systems / surveillance
• Incentives / Disincentives / insurance

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Assessments should be policy-relevant,
provide near-term guidance. AND identify missing
information most important to future decisions.
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Meanwhile, climate-change science is actually
being cut! Budget authority in
constant FY2007
Kei Kozumi, AAAS, 2-07
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But, there is hope..
Among the Presidents FY 09 Priorities.
So as to better inform policy, agencies should
continue to make investments to improve our
ability to observe, model, assess, and adapt to
impacts of climate change, particularly on a
regional scale, and to assure the availability of
critical long-term climate data.
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US federal investment in energy-technology
research, development, and demonstration
US DOE energy RDD spending, FY1978-2008
Courtesy Kelly Gallagher, Kennedy School of
Govt, 2-13-07
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U.S. emissions trajectories to 2050
ASES, January 2007
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There are intersections between mitigation and
adaptation
and water is a linchpin.
Electric Power Research Institute, 2007
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Wise integrated mitigation-adaptation strategies
needed!

• Sustainable land and water use policies are vital
  for agriculture, forestry, energy production and
  biodiversity preservation
• Advanced building designs can maximize energy
  efficiency improve indoor air quality
• Renewable energy sources can be a new income
  source (biomass/wind)
• infrastructure can be constructed to withstand
  increasing floods and storm surges and with more
  efficient resource use

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Conclusions

• Past is not prologue
• Infrastructure, energy and natural resource
  management and planning based on the last 100
  years of climate will be wrong
• Adaptive Management will be needed
• In all sectors and regions to cope with changing
  averages, extremes, and composite stresses
• Investment is not commensurate with the urgency
  of the problem
• Need integrative science assessments and serious
  RDD in mitigation and adaptation

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Some key references

• Confronting Climate Change Avoiding the
  Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable, United
  Nations Foundation, February 2007
  http//www.unfoundation.org/SEG/
• Climate Change 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on
  Climate Change,2000 http//www.ipcc.ch/
• Climate Change Impacts on the United States The
  Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and
  Change http//www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nation
  alassessment/overview.htm
• Preparing for an Uncertain Climate, OTA, 1993,
  Vols. 12 http//www.gcrio.org/library/1993/otarep
  ort/index.htm

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The Challenge Sustainable Management of an
Ever-Changing Planet