P1251328615JdMZu

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Presentation at Kista 010530 Bakelit Forecast
Analysis
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The project
The object of the project is to increase
Europolitans knowledge about the strategies of
terminal suppliers and to suggest strategies for
Europolitan that could secure the companys need
for 3G terminals to complete its own market
offering.
Constraints The time scope has been set to the
early 3G market ending in 2003-2004. Terminals
that are being studied are volume products
marketed to broad customer segments, not
terminals for special professions etc.
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Agenda
Bakelit

• Overview of 3G services and applications
• What services are customers interested in?
• How can the operator supply the services?
• What components comprises a terminal?
• How much will the 3G terminal cost?
• What types of 3G terminals will there be?
• Who will supply the terminals?
• What strategies are the suppliers following?
• What should the 3G terminal look like Bakelit
  dreams!

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Service Preferences
Bakelit
Source BCG proprietary consumer database.
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Conclusions
Services and applications must correspond to
their promises Success is depending on a
numerous of factors, e.g. Geographical market and
the nature of the terminals
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Service Ranking
Bakelit
SMS Bank account E-mail Electronic
calendar Guidance News weather Surfing Download/
send pictures Music Stock trading Friends
position Phtographing Pay-in-store M-shopping Elec
tronic visiting card Text editing File
download/upload Ringing tunes Sport Chat Advertisi
ng Video Computer games Network gaming Gambling
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2
3
4
5
Average
Source Bakelit
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Service Characteristics
Bakelit
Connection time
No requirements
Short time required
Stocks Bank account Positioning
High requirements
Security
Download/send pictures
Unified Messaging
Low requirements
Guidance News/weather/sport Ringing tuned
Listen to music
Surfing the Internet
Källa Bakelit
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Service Characteristic
Bakelit
Source Bakelit
Most popular Least popular
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Limited demands on the technical performance of
the terminals.Secure the supply of terminals
with focus on users interface.The services can
be launched early.
Bakelit
Conclusions of Market Research
The most popular services require good
input/output solutions. The least popular
services demands more memory and processor
capacity
!
!
The most popular services have relative low
demands on bandwidth
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Customer Segments
3. Price discrimination

• Segment customers after their ability and
  willingness to pay
• Business Class
• Economy Class
• Some age segmentation

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Service Development
Developer
Way of cooperation
Service UM News/weather/sport Bank
account Guidance Stock trading Surfing YachtPosi
tion Pollenrapporten
Guaranteed services Internet
connectivity Specialized services
Europolitan Europolitan-TT Europolitan-banks Europ
olitan-Gula sidorna Europolitan-Reuters Europolit
an-ISP mobilePosition Palynologiska lab.
Inhouse development Needs content provider Must
work with Swedish banks Needs content
provider Needs content provider Agreement Certif
icate, no mass market Certificate, no mass market
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Accept Categories
Bakelit
Early majority
Late majority
Target market Excisting segment of mobile
service users
Late comers
Early acceptors
Inventors
Scepticals
Guaranteed services

• All demographic groups are interested of these
  services

Internet connectivity

• Surfing in ages 21-30
• Sending pictures in ages 51-60
• Music and ringing tunes in ages 15-20

Specialized services

• Friends position in ages 15-20
• Guidance in ages 51-

Source Bakelit (2001)
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Behavioural Patterns must be Changed
-create a need the user wasnt aware of

• SMS lunched quietly, but grew to a huge need
• Alcatel step-by-step development to accustom
  users to new services
• Case study

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Components
Bakelit

• Processor
• Risc CPU
• DSP
• Memory
• SRAM
• DRAM
• Flash
• Battery

• Radio interface
• WCDMA
• CDMA2000
• Bluetooth
• GSM
• WLAN
• Operating system
• Pocket PC
• Epoc
• Palm OS

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Components continued
Bakelit

• Display
• TFT LCD
• Microdisplays
• I/O interface
• Serial
• Irda
• Pc card
• Docking stations

• User interface
• Touch screen
• Voice commands, text to speech
• Keyboard
• Writing recognition
• Audio in/out
• Video, static pictures

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Conclusions Technology Inside the Terminals
Bakelit

• Technical capabilities not a bottleneck!
• Problems
• - user experience
• - mass production
• - software

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Assumption for Price Estimate
Mid-segment with app. 32MB RAM, 32MB ROM, color
display 240x320. Lowest prices 6000 kr.
Smartphones with small memory. Lowest prices
just below 6000 kr.
Small overlap price slightly below sum of both
products
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Price Estimate
- Suppliers price for small volumes excl.VAT -
Estimates 1, Lars Lundberg, TietoEnator 2, Ovum
(Maj 1999) here Smartphone telephone with
microbrowser. 3, Trium Mondo 4, Sagem WA3050 5,
Motorola Accompli08 (Price information in Connect
magazine)
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Motorola Need Segments
Fashion
Simplicity
Save time
Entertainment
Sources Finanstidningen 20010327 www.motorola.c
om Vision 20010222 Bakelit article search.
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Nokia - Function Segments

• Communicator
• Business segment
• Office applications

Media phone - Mobile Internet - Third party
applications
Imaging phone - Person-to-person - Inspiring user
interface
Sources. Calling the Next Generation, White
Paper from Nokia www.nokia.com Bakelit article
search
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Siemens - Person Segments
Professional
Aware
Active
Sources. www.siemens.be/umts/press1.htm www.siem
ens.com/umts Bakelit article search Interviews
at CeBit, Hannover 2001
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Suppliers Segments
Alcatel Ericsson Kyocera Matsushita Mitsubishi
Motorola NEC Nokia Philips Sagem Samsung Sharp Si
emens Sony Toshiba
Focus Interest shown through prototypes or
existing terminals
1 Office 2 Image 3 Fun 4 Compact 5 Fashion 6
Internet 7 Simplicity 8 Robustness 9 Entertainment
Sources Official home pages, Bakelit article
search, Interviews at CeBit, Hannover 2001
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Market Launch
Market launch
2001
2002
2004
2003
Samsung Mitsubishi Matsushita NEC Toshiba Motorol
a Ericsson Siemens Alcatel Sagem Nokia Philips Sha
rp Kyocera Sony Fujitsu
3G GPRS
Sources Official home pages, Bakelit article
search, Interviews at CeBit, Hannover 2001
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Bakelit Ranking
M Microsoft, P Palm, S Symbian
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Bakelit Top 5
Källa Bakelit (2001)
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Suppliers Alliances
Bakelit
Manufacturing
Hardware
Marketing
Terminal suppliers
Content services
Operators
Software applications
Source Bakelit (2001)
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Bakelit
Manufacturing
Marketing
Hardware
Content services
Operators
Terminal suppliers
Software applications
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Strategies a Few Conclusions

• Asian and European suppliers cooperating
• Established suppliers are most important in early
  3G market
• Established suppliers create alliances mostly
  within software applications
• Waiting for working infrastructure

Sources Bakelit (2001)
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Europolitan Opportunities to Cooperate with
Terminal Suppliers

• Bakelit ideas
• Act early and tell suppliers what types of
  terminals will be subsidized
• Support open platforms and traffic drivers, for
  example cameras
• Avoid the risk of being locked to certain
  suppliers. Dont order specified terminals.

• Supplier
• Early supply
• Volumes
• Open platforms
• Traffic drivers
• Support for services

• Operator
• Customer information
• Guaranteed subsidizing
• Network orders
• Support for functionality

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Vision Terminal - Mainopolitan
Suppliers
Description
Software

• Motorola
• Mitsubishi
• Ericsson
• Nokia

• B/W display
• Touch-screen
• Pen-input
• Turn display
• Bluetooth
• Dual band

• Open platform
• E-mail
• Microbrowser
• Calendar
• Writing recognition

Services service suppliers
Prices and subscriptions

• Voice Europolitan
• UM Europolitan
• Bank services Europ/banks
• Surfing Europolitan ISP
• News Europ/TT
• Guidance Europ/Gula Sidorna
• Office extension Independent

Business Dont subsidize the price but offer
office extension services. Economy Prize
subsidize and long subscription lock-in.
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Vision Terminal- Pictopolitan
Suppliers
Description
Software

• Motorola
• Samsung

• Color display
• Touch-screen
• Pen-input
• Camera
• Memory card
• MP3
• Turn display
• Bluetooth
• Dual band

• Open platform
• E-mail
• Microbrowser
• Calendar
• Writing recognition
• MP3-player
• Image editing

Services service suppliers
Prices and subscription

• Voice Europolitan
• UM Europolitan
• Bank services Europ/banks
• Internet Europolitan ISP
• News Europ/TT
• Guidance Europ/Gula Sidorna
• Photoloft Europolitan
• Office extension Independent

Extensive price subsidizes to make users use
electronic postcard services and other imaging
services. Drives traffic with camera and color
display.
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Vision Terminal- Connectopolitan
Suppliers
Description
Software

• Ericsson
• Motorola

• B/W display
• Bluetooth
• Digit buttons

• Accessories handling
• E-mail
• Telephone book
• Voice commands

Services service suppliers
Prices and subscription

• Voice Europolitan
• UM Europolitan

Could be interesting to subsidize since
accessories will drive traffic.
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Vision Terminal- Trendopolitan
Suppliers
Description
Software

• Nokia
• Mitsubishi
• Samsung

• B/W display
• Digit buttons
• FM-radio
• MP3

• E-mail
• Telephone book
• Voice commands
• MP3-player

Services service suppliers
Prices and subscriptions

• Voice Europolitan
• UM Europolitan

Not a traffic driver no subsidizing.