Post Election Poll and Analysis

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Post Election Poll and Analysis

• Prepared By
• Penn, Schoen Berland Associates, Inc.
• January 24, 2001

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Key Findings

• Al Gore lost on the broader meta-themes of the
  election.
• The Vice President failed to build on President
  Clintons winning formula of fiscal
  responsibility and support for a smaller,
  activist government
• This rendered him vulnerable to attacks
  portraying him as an old-style, Dukakis big
  government liberal.
• The old style populist message limited his
  appeal rather than expanding it.
• The message prevented him from reaching the swing
  voters who could push him over the top.
• While Gore did achieve success among upper income
  women, these upper income women voted on the
  issue of choice, rather than populism.

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Key Findings

• While the Vice President realized he had to reach
  the 1996 targets of soccer moms, he missed the
  new target of the 21st century the wired
  workers.
• The last group of voters Al Gore could have
  reached were the voters who went in the last
  month to Bush primarily middle class, white
  suburban males, many of who had voted for Clinton
  in the past.
• Only sporadically did Al Gore talk about
  progress, prosperity, and the Clinton
  Administrations achievements on the economy
• This message should have been his biggest asset
  in the presidential contest
• Both candidates failed to occupy the decisive
  center of the American electorate.

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Issues and Ideology
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Winning the Issue Campaign

• Al Gore ran a campaign on the issues that a
  majority of the voting public supported him on

Issues Gore Won
Issues Bush Won
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George W. Bush Did Not Have Winning Issues, But
He Had a Framework for His Issues

• His framework included smaller, more
  compassionate government, and is the biggest
  reason for voting for Bush

Which of the following is the most important
reason you voted for Bush?
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Bush Defined Gores Ideology

• In the absence of an appealing theme that tied
  Gores laundry list of issues together, Bush
  defined the framework for Gore and turned off
  large swaths of voters to Gore
• Despite Gores strong centrist credentials,
  George W. Bush successfully defined his opponent
  as a big government liberal who supports
  increased spending

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Perceptions of Candidate Ideology

• We asked voters to think about their own
  ideological leanings as well as those of the
  candidates.
• On a scale from one to nine, with one being far
  left, five being absolute center, and nine being
  far right, the mean response for how people see
  their own ideology is a 5.42 - slightly to the
  right of center

Voters see Bush as a point right of themselves,
and slightly more centrist than the Republican
party
Voters see Gore as a point and a half left of
themselves, and slightly left of the Democratic
party
Among those who see Gore as pure centrist, Gore
wins 70/12. Among those who see Bush as pure
centrist, Bush wins 61/20
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Role of Federal Government
Which is closest to your own/Al Gore/ George W.
Bushs view on role of the federal government?
Own View
Bush wins 62 to 28 among those who see Gore as
left on role of government
But Gore wins 65 to 20 among those who see him
as a centrist
Gore View
Bush View
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Role of Federal Government in Economy
Which is closest to your own/Al Gore/ George W.
Bushs view on role of the federal government?
Own View
Bush wins 57 to 32 among those who see Gore as
left on role of government in econ.
Bush View
Gore View
But Gore wins 64 to 23 among those who see him
as a centrist
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Gore Was Viewed As Being For Big Government
Voters were asked a series of attributes and
asked which applied to Gore or Bush.
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Campaign Themes

• Three of the most common threads from each
  candidates speeches were tested, along with some
  other potential centrist themes.
• I want to change the tone in Washington enough
  fighting. Instead of pointing fingers and
  gridlock, I will find ways to work together in a
  bipartisan manner to get things done for America.
• I believe in an America that offers opportunity
  for all, demands responsibility from all, and
  fosters a community of all, with a government
  that equips all Americans with the tools they
  need for economic success.
• I believe very deeply that you have to be willing
  to stand up and fight no matter what powerful
  forces might be on the other side - big oil
  companies, big polluters, big pharmaceutical
  companies, and big tobacco. This election is
  about the people v. the powerful

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Theme Findings

• George W. Bushs message of changing the tone in
  Washington resonated the strongest with the
  electorate.
• Al Gores people versus the powerful populist
  message worked well among his base, but was not
  the best message to appeal to swing voters
• Clintons Credo of opportunity and responsibility
  rang true with both Gore and Bush voters.

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The Populist Message Was Limiting
Who Said Message Makes Them Much More Likely to
Vote for a Candidate
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Voting Trend Analysis

• Where the Vote was Won and Lost

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Voter Analysis Gender and Choice

• Some argue that populism worked, since Gore was
  able to shave five points off of the margin among
  those making over 100K and improved his standing
  among higher income women.
• Polling and exit data shows this boost stemmed
  from women voting on the issue of abortion or
  Supreme Court appointments.

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Voter Analysis White Men

• VNS reports Bush beating Gore by 24 points among
  white men. 60 to 36.
• This is considerably worse than Clinton in 1992
  and 1996. In 1992, Clinton lost white males by
  three, and in 1996 he lost them by eleven.
• DLC polling shows the following

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Voter Analysis Ideology

• Among voters who describe their ideology as
  moderates, Gore won by eight points, a group
  Clinton carried by 24 points.
• Gore did not gain anything on the left, repeating
  Clintons 67 point margin among liberals.
• Among Independents, Gore trailed Clintons
  performance by 10 points.

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Missing the Target Bush Swings
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Bush Picked up the Voters Gore Failed to Attract

• About 30 of the electorate broke in the last
  month
• The last group of voters Al Gore could have won
  were those voters who committed to George W. Bush
  in the last month. We call them Bush swings.
• They were 58 male, predominantly white, 43
  suburban, 56 moderate, 50 independent and
  wired.
• The Bush swing voters react very strongly to
  messages about small government, fiscal
  responsibility, and personal responsibility.
• These are precisely the issues Bush drove when he
  successfully painted Gore as a dishonest, big
  government liberal.
• Gore failed to make the case to these voters that
  Bushs tax cut was fiscally irresponsible -- one
  that would endanger the surplus and not focus on
  our national priorities

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Progress and Prosperity
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Capturing the National Mood and Optimism
Direction of Country
Direction of Economy
Clinton Admin. Credit for Economy

• Gore won among those who said right direction,
  50 to 39.
• Bush swings are 78/15 right direction / wrong
  track

• Gore won among those who said right direction,
  60 to 30.
• In 1996, Clinton won right direction by 69 to
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• Bush swings are 51/35 right direction / wrong
  track

• 19 of Bush voters, and 32 of Bush swing voters
  give Clinton Admin a lot of credit on the economy

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Most Important Reason to Vote for Gore was
Continued Prosperity
Which of the following is the most important
reason you voted for Gore?
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