Lyn Firminger

1
An eye on the future

• Lyn Firminger
• Emerging Skills Research Officer
• OTTE Specialist Centre Seminar
• March 2004

2
Overview

• The ANTA CRC Demonstration Project
• Innovations and trends
• Trend tracking
• Trend Analysis

3
Foresight

• Strategic foresight is the ability to create and
  maintain viable forward views and to use these in
  organisationally useful ways.
• For example to detect adverse conditions, guide
  policy, shape strategy explore new markets,
  products and services.
• Richard Slaughter
• Foundation Professor
• Australian Foresight Institute

4
Co-operative Research Centres

• Are funded by Federal Government in seven-year
  blocks
• Are a partnership between universities,
  businesses, other bodies like CSIRO, State
  Government, etc
• The 65 CRCs are in the industry areas of
  manufacturing, agriculture, information
  technology, mining, environment and medicine
• Their aim is to research and develop products and
  processes that will benefit Australia

5
ANTA CRC Project

• Findings from Going Boldly a study into VET CRC
  interaction
• Some innovations lead to the need for new skills
• In some cases this will require a VET response
• The VET sector should be involved in knowledge
  creation and commercialisation in CRCs
• Building and strengthening links between research
  and industry is crucial to Australias innovation
  capacity

6
Swinburne TAFE and CRCs

• A Swinburne intersectoral project in 2002 to
  explore how we might work together
• Linkages between Engineering and CAST to write
  curriculum
• An Industry Release project involving three
  teachers working with Microtechnology
• The ANTA CRC project one year duration with a
  number of sub projects including students working
  with Microtechnology resource sharing

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What I now know about CRCs

• Finding a common language takes time
• The education/communication/technology transfer
  managers may be the best translators from one
  language to another
• CRCs are partnerships between universities and
  industry but very university-centred
• They recruit PhD students who have never been in
  industry

8
And I also know

• Their idea of VET is 20 years out of date we
  have to change that
• We have to find ways to add value to what they do
• We have resources that may be useful to them

9
Why bother?

• CRCs are a window into industry three to five
  years down the track the lone signals on the
  horizon
• CRCs are in the public domain unlike research
  in large companies
• They are under pressure from government to
  commercialise product over time they will
  realise we can help them with that
• Questions?

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Innovations and trend lines

• The real process is continuous if your could
  stop it

Trend lines
Drivers
T R E N D S
Ideas
Innovation
Invention
Research
Crisis
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Some drivers of innovation

• Market competition globalisation or crowded
  markets
• Human needs and wants living longer,
  cocooning
• The urge to invent and improve
• Threats social breakdown, war, ecology

12
Trend Tracking - Database

• First develop an environmental scanning
  database
• Nothing fancy Access
• Code numbers A 16.104
• A is all the stuff in boxes (as opposed to arch
  files)
• 16 is the box for the Centre for New
  Manufacturing
• 104 the one hundred and fourth paper I put in
  here
• Author, title, date, publisher, who it will be
  useful for,
• KEYWORDS the key word is keywords
• Ruthlessly edit once a year and refine the
  keywords
• Use the data in your research analysis

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Trend Tracking - gathering information

• Ask department managers
• What is changing?
• How fast is it changing?
• Where do you get your information from?
• You will probably find they use here and now
  resources
• Industry associations, ITABS, government
  departments, conferences, student feedback,
  regulatory change, and so on.
• You need other resources horizon scanning
  resources

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Trend Analysis

• Developing a search image monkeys and snakes
• Use a variety of resources more than the
  newspaper
• Not the headlines but the paragraph on Page 5
• Trends should cover at least two of the following
• Social, economic, political, scientific,
  geographic
• There needs to be at least two events to form a
  sequence
• Gerald Celente T. Milton

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The problem with trend analysis

• Very few trends have long term stability
• It is difficult to distinguish between trends and
  fads
• Lone signals on the horizon are hard to
  distinguish
• Wild cards and other discontinuities throw trends
  off track

16
Tip

• Always have a file for
• Wild cards
• Lone signals on the horizon
• Potential tipping points

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Trend tracking resources

• THE INTERNET
• Conventional sources are linear silos
  containing information about long-standing
  industry sectors
• The Internet is non-linear you dive in and swim
  through information in a chaotic way
• Radar blips

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Internet Information

• Free newsletters
• Journal articles
• Academic papers
• Webblogs
• Newspapers from around the world
• United Nations
• OECD

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Drowning in paper? Use it!
Drowning in paper? Use it!

• VET research and response to innovation

VET research and response to innovation Quest
ion Analysis Action
Will it affect VET?
What might we do?
What is happening?
Innovation
Conversations Papers
Change Courses, add modules
Scan Literature Search Survey
Change Courses, add modules
Breadth and depth 4Quadrants CLA
Delphi Scenarios
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Three Situations

• The AVIAN Bird Flu
• A potential crisis that might demand instant
  innovations
• The Accelerometer
• An existing product that has a slow growth market
• Population Growth in the middle east
• A long term trend

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Conversations

• What is happening or might happen?
• Will it affect VET?
• What might we do? Do we need new courses or
  modules?

22
Thank You