Economics of Voting: A Matter of Choice

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Economics of VotingA Matter of Choice

• Robert Eyler, Ph.D.
• Chair, Department of Economics
• Sonoma State University
• eyler_at_sonoma.edu

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Introduction

• The economics of voting is best seen in a
  rational model.
• Individuals vote based on preferences.
• Each party/candidate provides the voter with some
  satisfaction if elected.
• Individual votes to maximize benefit of choice,
  assuming choice wins.
• In democratic elections, influence over voter
  choice the fundamental economics of voting.

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Candidate Selection

• Voting is tertiary in the democratic process
  economically
• Primary is candidate selection.
• Secondary is campaign (think marketing).
• Tertiary is the vote itself.
• However, political parties must always keep the
  second and third steps in mind when picking a
  candidate.

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Candidate (cont.)

• Candidate selection should also be a rational
  choice of the respective parties.
• What are the chances the candidate will win?
• How well can we campaign for this person?
• How well will constituency agree with choice?
• Will this choice influence moderate or
  non-partisan voters toward our partys ticket?
• Will this candidate credibly fill the position?
• Future and current elections may be influenced.

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Campaigns

• Campaigns are basically marketing
• Money is spent to provide the partys candidate
  with votes through voter preference influence.
• Median Voter Theory suggests that staunch party
  members will not change their votes en masse.
• Campaigns thus concentrate on moderate or
  non-partisan voters, or swing states (check it
  out)
• Obviously, some bumps along the way.

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Campaigns (cont.)

• Spinning new info
• The art of spin is the art and essence of
  marketing.
• The economics of spin are the economics of
  preserving voter preferences or changing them if
  new info concerns other parties.
• Debates provide candidates with a way to directly
  market themselves.
• Nervousness in parties, however, depending on
  polls.

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The Role of Polls

• Polls provide statistical estimates of voter
  choice at any time, and act as a forecast.
• Polls can shape campaigns.
• Adjustments made as polls change.
• Polls can also help to influence voters as
  election nears.
• Voters may respond to tightening or widening
  differences.
• Rational Voter Theory at work.

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Voting

• In democracies, voting provides choice
• Use it, as it shapes your own world.
• Economically, voters choose candidates that they
  feel enhance their lives.
• Socially, someone with which they connect.
• Economically, can I eat more or less if this
  person is elected?
• How many campaigns have higher taxes as a slogan?
• Walter Mondale in 1984 (landslide loss).

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Conclusion

• The economics of voting is the influence over the
  marginal voter, or the undecided.
• Can the party influence this person, and then the
  mass of these people?
• Pick the right person, campaign correctly, all
  economic choices.
• Huge gains for parties in other elections from
  large wins.
• Think with both your head and heart, but vote for
  sure.