Integrated Visions for a Sustainable Europe

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Integrated Visions for a Sustainable Europe
Open Meeting of the Global Environmental Change
Research CommunityRio de Janeiro, October 6-8,
2001
Co-ordinating Team Jan Rotmans Chris
Anastasi Marjolein van Asselt Caroline van
Bers Dale Rothman Sandra Greeuw Joanne
Mellors Jasper Grosskurth
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THE VISIONS PROJECT

• European Commission Directorate-General Research
  and Development
• Nine partner institutes across Europe
• Co-ordinator ICIS
• Duration 1998 - 2001

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GOAL

• To develop challenging futures for
• Europe in an innovative, scientifically sound way
  
• on behalf of the social debate and strategic
  planning

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RESEARCH PARADIGM
Integrated Assessment (IA) is an
interdisciplinary process of structuring
knowledge elements from various scientific
disciplines in such a manner that all relevant
aspects of a societal problem are considered in
their mutual coherence for the benefit of
decision-making
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INTEGRATING SCALES
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INTEGRATING SECTORS, FACTORS AND ACTORS

• Sectors
• energy
• water
• transport
• infrastructure

• Factors
• equity
• employment
• consumption behaviour
• environmental degradation

• Actors
• governmental organisations
• NGOs
• businesses
• scientists

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INTEGRATING METHODS

• Participatory methods (workshops, focus groups,
  interviews, expert panels)
• Models (QUEST, Green Heart model, PHOENIX,
  Worldscan)

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PARTICIPANTS

• Both European and regional stakeholder groups
• Representatives from - government (regional,
  national, international) - science - business
  community - NGOs - media - free thinkers
  (artists esp.) - citizens

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FORMS OF PARTICIPATION

• Storyline Workshopsfree format / predefined
  inputlarger groupheterogeneous / homogeneous
• Focus Groups predefined inputsmaller
  grouphomogeneous
• In-depth Interviewspredefined inputindividualsr
  ange of backgrounds

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INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK
Participatory element
Analytical tools
Data collection Trend analyses
WORLD
Expert group
Story-lines Expert groups Envisioning workshops
Data-based and Model- supported
EUROPE
Transitions, Cultural Theory Models
Tensions group
REGIONS
Story-lines Expert groups Envisioning workshops
Model-supported
Green Heart
Interviews Participatory modelling
Model-supported
Northwest-UK
Narrative ICT tools
Focus groups Interviews
Venice
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EUROPE - APPROACH

• Storyline workshop with stakeholders
• In depth-work sessions
• Expert panel
• Use of existing models to illustrate trends with
  indicators

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EUROPE Research Process
PARTICIPATION
DESK WORK
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EUROPE

• Knowledge is King What if the nature of
  technological development encourages local
  capacity building while it facilitates
  globalisation?
• Convulsive Change What if climate change and
  other environmental problems are highly
  detrimental, outpacing societys ability to
  adapt?
• Big is Beautiful? What if the merger principle
  not only affects major industries, but also
  deeply affects social, cultural, institutional
  and ecological patterns?

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INTEGRATION PROCEDURE
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SELECTION PROCEDURE

• Similarities and tensions in terms of dynamics,
  management style, outlooks, driving forces.
• Combinations with the most emergent patterns from
  Europe - region interaction
• Every European scenario should appear at least
  once

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INTEGRATED VISION

• Living on the edge
• Europe in transition
• Shadows of Europe Ltd.

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• Dynamics
• Transition to high-tech society with a human face
  
• Coupled transitions economy, technology,
  lifestyle, work, governance and demography
• European and regional developments strengthen
  each other
• Transition with the necessary problems

Underlying scenarios Europe knowledge is
king North-West UK sustainable communities
Green Heart technology rules Venice
cyberia
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• Characteristics
• Societal divide connected and unconnected
• Mass migration from East Europe
• Societal battlefield revolution of the
  unconnected
• Network-governance
• Large participation on all levels
• Co-existence of two groups

Underlying scenarios Europe knowledge is
king North-West UK sustainable communities
Green Heart technology rules Venice
cyberia
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UNIQUE FEATURES OF VISIONS

• Bottom-up and participatory
• Surprises
• Complexity
• Integrated (multi-scale and multi-domain)

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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

• The process of envisioning is at least as
  important as the the ultimate visions themselves

Communicating the messages resulting from the
envisioning process is difficult.
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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

• Difficulties with engaging stakeholders
• availability
• interests
• recognisability
• credibility

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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

• Structure and composition of stakeholder group
  should determine the kind of participatory method
  to use

Future scenario exercises should be more
stakeholder-oriented than purely
stakeholder-driven
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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

• There is a big gap between the increasing
  complexity of our society and the analytical
  tools (IAmodels) that try to address this
  complexity
• IAModels only cover a small part
• of the required complexity

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WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?

• There is definitely a need for integrated visions
  (multi-scale, multi-domain, multi-perspective),
• but there are still hurdles to overcome

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RESEARCH AGENDA

• Participation and Modelling
• Transitions
• Uncertainty

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Interested?

• Check out the ICIS website www.icis.unimaas.nl
• Contact us icis_at_icis.unimaas.nl