Decision-making Systems

1

• Decision-making Systems

2

• Overview

What managers do? Decision-making Many views of
MIS Types of MIS
3

• What managers do?

Regular meetings
Travel
Other meetings
Desk work
Phone calls
4

• Managerial roles and IS support

Role
IS support
interpersonal
e-mail, video/teleconferencing, computer-mediated
meetings
informational
TPS,MIS,EIS,OIS
decisional
DSS,GDSS,EIS, AI/ES
5

• Decision-making

Intelligence
problem definition
Design
alternatives
resolution
Choice
6
Decision Support in Business

• Information Requirements of Decision
  Makers

Decision Structure
Information Characteristics
Ad Hoc Unscheduled Summarized Infrequent Forward
Looking External Wide Scope
Unstructured
Strategic Management Executives Directors
Tactical Management Business Unit Management
Self-Directed Teams
Information
Decisions
Semi-Structured
Prespecified Scheduled Detailed Frequent Historica
l Internal Narrow Focus
Operational Management Operating Management
Self-Directed Teams
Structured
7
Decision Support in Business
Characteristics of Information Products
Time Timliness
Currency Frequency
Time Period
Form Clarity Detail Order
Presentation Media
Content Accuracy
Relevance Completeness
Conciseness Scope Performance

• Time Dimension

• Content Dimension

• Form Dimension

8
Decision Support in Business
Decision Structure

• Structured Decisions
• Semistructured
• Unstructed

9

• Time horizon

10

• Users' view

11
Federative view
P R O D U C T I O N
M A N A G E M E N T
M A R K E T I N G
F I N A N C E
P E R S O N N E L

• Data base management system

DATA BASE
12

• Integrative view

Functional areas
Decision levels
Data base management system
13
(No Transcript)
14

• Types of Information Systems

TPS
transaction processing systems
MIS
management reporting
EIS
executive information systems
DSS
decision support systems
GDSS
group decision support systems
AI/ES
expert systems
15
Management Information Systems
Management Reporting Alternatives

• Components of a Marketing Information System

CLIENTS
INTERNAL DATABASES
SERVER
Customer Data
Sales Data
News Wires
Via the Internet
Inventory Data
The Server Filters Information Based on Users
Custom Requirements
Firewall
16

• Decision type

STRUCTURED
SEMI-STRUCTURED
UNSTRUCTURED
Intelligence
no knowledge
no knowledge
knowledge
Design
of all
of one or two
of any of the
Choice
steps
steps
steps
EIS
DSS
TPS
17

• DSS generators

Specific
DSS
DSS
USERS
tools
technical
DSS
intermediary
Generator
support
DSS Builder
managers, users
manager
toolsmith
18

• Anatomy of a DSS

model base
data base
MBMS
DBMS
DSS generator
DGMS
dialog,user interface
users
19

• Dialog styles

• Basic types
• QA - Question and answer
• Command language
• Menu
• Input Form/Output Form
• Input-in-Context-of-Output
• Pros and cons
• Mixed dialogs

20
Decision Support Systems
Using Decision Support

• What-if Analysis
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Goal-Seeking Analysis
• Optimization Analysis

21
GDSS - Group Decision Support Systems
TIME
PLACE
SAME (synch) ANY (asynch)
SAME FACE-TO-FACE CONFERENCE (WEBTYCHO)
ANY VIDEO/TELECONFERENCING VIRTUAL

• DSS plus
• Groupware
• Facilities

place
LAN decision network
WAN decision network
high
Decision frequency
Decision room
Teleconferencing
low
close
far
22

• Executive Information Systems

• present information for top management
• supports problem/opportunity discovery and
  assessment
• is used for control andstrategic planning
• are multimedia systems
• provide summary and detailed information, with
  the ability to "drill down" into the data
• provide internal and external information
• provide different time and space information

23
Artificial Intelligence

• Overview of AI

24
Artificial Intelligence
The Domains of AI

• Expert Systems
• Learning Systems
• Fuzzy Logic
• Genetic Algorithms
• Neural Networks
• Intelligent Agents

• Visual Perception
• Tactility
• Dexterity
• Locomotion
• Navigation

• Natural Languages
• Speech Recognition
• Multisensory Interfaces
• Virtual Reality

25

• Expert systems

...an intelligent computer program that uses
knowledge and inference procedures to solve
problems that require significant human
expertise for their solution.
The knowledge of an expert systems consists of
facts and heuristics. Facts constitute the body
of information publicly available and agreed upon
by experts in a field. Heuristics are mostly
private rules of good judgement that characterize
expert-level decision making in a field.
E. Feigenbaum, Stanford University
26
Artificial Intelligence
Expert Systems
The Expert System
Expert System Software
User
Workstation
Expert System Development
Expert and/or Knowledge Engineer
Workstation
27
Use and development of ES

• Expert systems products
• Expert systems shells
• Expert systems players
• knowledge user
• knowledge engineer
• domain expert

28
Artificial Intelligence
Virtual Reality (VR)

• Computer Simulated Reality
• Multisensory Input/Output Devices
• Data Glove
• Walker
• Creating Telepresence With Sight, Sound, and Touch

29
Artificial Intelligence
Virtual Reality (VR)
30
GIS

• It is important to appreciate that GIS does not
  always provide exact answers to problems, but by
  identifying trends based on geography, GIS can
  reveal patterns that can help us make informed
  decisions. A GIS can improve decision-making it
  cannot make decisions for us.

31
GIS Example Emergency services

• By using the GIS as a computerized map,
  controllers of police vehicles and ambulances can
  instantly call up a detailed map of the area
  around an incident. By tracking the vehicles in
  real time and using route-finding GIS functions,
  the controller can identify the best vehicle to
  attend and give directions for the fastest way to
  the incident. They can even store historical
  information and look for incident patterns and
  black spots.

32
GIS Example Supermarket locations

• Supermarket chains use GIS to help site new
  stores and to plan their distribution networks.
  By comparing how many people live within
  15-minutes drive time of a particular location
  with the number of supermarkets already trading
  in that area, the GIS can identify suitable
  locations with an optimized catchment area.
  Supermarket chains also use socio-economic data
  to create profiles of the people in their
  catchment areas to help them understand which
  other parts of the country are likely to be
  successful growth areas.

33
Additional Readings

• SDSS
• Virtual Teams
• Commerical GDSS
• An Expert systems Application 
• DSS..Application 
• GIS Applications 
• Neural Networks
• Negotaiation System Example 
• Knowledge management big challenges, big rewards
• New Directions in GDSS     
• RMIS system provides Chubb customers with current
  data and extensive drill-down analysis