Overview of costs of publication

1
Overview of costs of publication

• National Academy of Sciences
• Symposium on Electronic STM Publishing and Its
  Implications
• 19 May 2003
• Michael A. Keller
• HighWire Press, Stanford University

2
Overview of the Institutional Marketplace

• ? The STM journal market has been the fastest
  growing segment of the media industry for the
  past 15 years
• ? 10 percent annual growth over the last 18 years
• ? Predicted 5-6 percent annual growth over the
  next 5 years
• (Morgan Stanley Industry Report, 2002)

3
Overview of the Institutional Marketplace

• ? Consolidation of STM journals into a small
  number of giant publishers
• ? Over 50 percent of STM journals are published
  by the 20 largest publishers
• (Morgan Stanley Industry Report, 2002)

4
Overview of the Institutional Marketplace

• ? Until recently, the number of scientific
  journals doubled every 15 months. Growth of new
  titles has substantially slowed over the last 5
  years
• ? Journal size has grown in order to compensate
  for the lack of new titles
• ?? Cost of subscriptions has escalated due to
  size of issues and investments in online
  technologies
• ? Library budgets budgets under increasing
  presure
• (Ingenta Institute, The Consortium Site License
  Is It a Sustainable Model, 2002)

5
Overview of the Institutional Marketplace

• ? Over the past 25 years individual subscriptions
  to STM journals have declined dramatically
• ? In 1977
• the average scientist had 5.8 personal
  subscriptions
• 68 of article readings came from personal
  subscriptions, 15 percent from library
  subscriptions
• ? Today
• the average scientist has 2.2 personal
  subscriptions
• 27 of readings come from personal subscriptions,
  55 percent from library subscriptions
• (King and Tennopir, Towards Electronic
  Journals,2000)

6
Overview of the Institutional Marketplace

• ? There has been proliferation of library
  consortia over the last 25 years
• ? These consortia are playing an increased role
  in electronic journal purchasing decisions and
  negotiations
• (Ingenta Institute, The Consortium Site License
  Is It a Sustainable Model, 2002)

7
Overview of the Institutional Marketplace

• The Big Deal
• Began in 1997
• Guarantees publishers steady income
• Provides libraries with steady prices and
  increased access to titles
• The majority of Big Deals have been signed in
  the last 3 yearsand the first large wave of
  contracts will be expiring in 2003
• Ingenta Institute, The Consortium Site License
  Is It a Sustainable Model, 2002

8
Predictions for the Institutional Marketplace

• ? Decline of library materials budgets
• ? Decline of the Big Deal
• ? Move towards smaller collections
• ? Selection of titles returns to importance
• ? Animosity towards for-profit publishers

9
Content Processing Costs

• Ms submission, tracking, refereeing
• Increasingly supported by networked applications
• Editing and proofing articles
• Composing pages
• Processing graphics and color
• Call this Editing

10
Other Publishing Expenses

• Paper, printing, binding disappearing?
• Mailing disappearing?
• Internet editions and features
• Publishing support
• Reserves
• Net revenue for other society functions OR
• Profit for shareholders

11
Traditional Publishing Costs

• Editing
• Printing
• Mailing
• Support
• Reserves
• Net Revenue for Society programs OR
• Profit for shareholders

12
Range of Costs of Publication Publishers n 5

• 1992 or 1993
• Edit 28.4 -- 53.3
• Print 25.9 -- 50.0
• Mail 4.3 -- 16.9
• Internet na
• Support 10.0 -- 29.4
• Reserve 0.0 -- 12.2
• for Soc 0.0 -- 1.9

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Range of Costs of Publication Publishers n 5

• 1992 or 1993 2002 or 2003
• Edit 28.4 -- 53.3 32.4 -- 56.0
• Print 25.9 -- 50.0 21.8 -- 27.0
• Mail 4.3 -- 16.9 4.3 -- 10.0
• Internet na 4.3 -- 9.1
• Support 10.0 -- 29.4 3.0 -- 33.2
• Reserve 0.0 -- 12.2 0.0 -- 7.2
• for Soc 0.0 -- 1.9 0.0 -- 2.9

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Rates of Increases of Costs of Publication

• Since 1992/93, expense budgets have nearly
  doubled
• Since 1992/93, expense budgets up /- 6 annually
• Since 1992/93, ms submissions up 30
• Since 1993, no. of articles published up 18
• Since 1993, no. of pages published up 30
• Since 1993, no. of individual subscriptions down
  50
• Since 1993, no. of issues printed and mailed down

15
Electronic Publishing Costs

• Editing
• Internet features
• Support
• Reserves
• Net Revenue for society programs OR
• Profit for shareholders

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Coming soon to a budget near you Digital
Repositories

• Operations standards must be
• Transparent to research community
• Auditable
• Unknown costs time will tell
• Redundancy counts
• Publishers, Libraries, or 3rd Parties or mix
• See LOCKSS http//lockss.stanford.edu
• See NDIIPP htto//www.digitalpreservation.gov/ndi
  ipp

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Backset conversion costs

• Scanning
• Converting TIFFs to PDFs and OCRing
• Loading and hosting PDFs etc
• Keying headers
• Keying references
• Linking references
• ALL cost money and drive continuing costs

18
Stanford E-journal Study

• 10,000 respondents
• 2 surveys over 2000-2002
• Numerous focus groups
• Web log mining
• Supported by Mellon Foundation
• Report, surveys, questionnaires, etc. at
• http//ejust.stanford.edu

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Stanford E-Journal Study showsthat scientists

• Value advanced features, esp.
• Searching alerting,
• Linking
• High resolution images
• Search and scan on-line, but read PDFs printed on
  paper
• Are willing to pay for content, but expect
  features as come-alongs

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Thanks to

• Michael Clarke, AAP
• Lenne Miller, The Endocrine Society
• Linda Illig, ASM
• Kathy Cullins Chuck Hancock, ASBMB
• John Inglis Bill Keen, CSHL Press
• Rich Dodenhoff, ASPET
• Michael Held, Rockefeller University Press
• Marty Frank Margaret Reich, THE APS