CLIMATE CHANGE and OIL DEPLETION

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CLIMATE CHANGE and OIL DEPLETION
International Workshop on Oil DepletionUppsala,
22-25 May 2002

• RUI NAMORADO ROSA 
• rrosa_at_uevora.pt
• Évora Geophysics Centre, University of Évora,
• Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000 671 Évora, Portugal

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KEY ISSUES

• Primary Energy Sources Past and Present
• Climate Climate Change and Climate variability
• Climate Modelling IPCC and beyond
• Anthropogenic climate forcing UNFCCC, Kyoto
  Protocol, EPCC
• Energy Efficiency primary energy saving
• Carbon Sequestration land and ocean
• Alternative Energy Carriers Hydrogen, Synthetic
  carbonaceous fuels
• Research and Development

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PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES PAST AND PRESENT
Consumption of primary energy has worlwide
increased at a rate of 2 per annum for the past
century. Primary energy sources
life-cycles Coal Crude oil Natural
gas One faces a constraint on oil availability
right now and a more severe constraint on gas in
about twenty five years time. Notice the
Decarbonization of the past energy mix
Hydrogen appears as a historically determined
energy carrier but there other options
Synthetic carbonaceous fuels
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Primary Energy historical displacement
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Decarbonization of the fuel mix
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Evolution from 1971 to 1998 of World Total
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel (Mtoe) IEA
                                               
                                                  
                                                  
       
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Evolution from 1971 to 1998 of World CO2
Emissions by Fuel (Mt of CO2) IEA
                                               
                                                  
                                                  
       
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EARTH CLIMATIC SYSTEM

• The Earth Climatic System
• Climate subsystems Atmosphere, Ocean, Solid
  Crust, Polar and Glacier Ice sheets
• Subsystems different reponse/relaxation times
• Subsystems interactions (Energy and Mass fluxes)
• Solar irradiation
• Climate variability and Climate Change

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Climate System how it works

• Composition of the Atmosphere gases, aerosols
  and clouds
• Energy input/output Solar and terrestrial
  radiation fluxes
• Water and Carbon cycles
• Energy balance the GreenHouse Gas effect and
  the Planetary Albedo
• Modelling Weather evolution and Climate
  variability and change forecasts and scenarios

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Climate Variability and Change

• Astronomical forcing (Milankovich cycles)
• Space weather Solar irradiation and Cosmic rays
  variabilities
• Volcanic activity aerossol emissions
• Anthropogenic forcing
• atmospheric emissions of gases and aerosols
• land use change, deforestation, urbanization

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THE CARBON CYCLE

• Natural Carbon Fluxes
• Sources Sinks and Fluxes
• Natural Carbon Reservoirs
• Biosphere Photosynthesis and respiration
• Atmosphere CO2 and CH4
• Oceans Organic/inorganic, dissolved
  /particulate
• Lithosphere Sedimentation and weathering,
  carbonate and organic carbon

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RESERVOIR COMPOSITION Quantity GtonC
Atmosphere Carbon dioxide 720
Oceans (mixed layer and deep water) Inorganig Organic (DOC) 39 000 700
Lithosphere Carbonates Carbonaceous 60 000 000 15 000 000
Terrestrial Biosphere Biomass Soil 600 1 600
Aquatic Biosphere Marine organisms 3
Fossil fuels solid Coal Peat 3 500 250
Fossil fuels fluid Oil Gas 230 140
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• Absortion of CO2 in rock weathering and
  sedimentation
• The dissolution of carbonates
• CO3Ca CO2(aq) H2O   2HCO3- Ca2
• The dissolution of silicates
• SiO3Ca 2CO2 H2O SiO2 2HCO3- Ca2
• Carbonate sedimentation
• CO2(aq) 2 H2O H3O HCO3-
• HCO3- H2O H3O CO32-
• Ca2 CO32- CaCO3(s)
• Carbon dioxide release (high temperature and
  pressure)
• CO3Ca SiO2 SiO3Ca CO2(g)

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Dissolution of carbonates and release of carbon
dioxide in fresh and oceanic waters MgCO3(s)
Mg2 CO32-            CaCO3(s) Ca2
CO32- H3O CO32- HCO3- H2O
                                             H3O
HCO3- CO2(aq) 2 H2O    CO2(aq)
CO2(g)             where CO2(aq) denotes both
aqueous carbon dioxide and the carbonic acid
H2CO3 . 2H2O H3O OH- The first two
reactions are slow, all the others are fast. The
chemicl equilibrium and the direction of the
prevailing reactions depend upon pH and redox
potential.
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Carbon Dioxide and Climate

• Historical variations of CO2 and surface
  temperature
• The Carbon fluxes and CO2 redistribution among
  the Atmosphere, Oceans, the Crust and the
  Biosphere
• Anthropogenic CO2 emissions uptake by the oceans
  and the terrestrial biosphere the missing sink
• Our knowledge of the Climate system is still
  rather limited and the time span of space
  observation still short

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Anthropogenic Climate Forcing

• Chemical perturbation of the Atmosphere gas and
  aerosol emissions due to Energy, Transportation
  and Industrial activities
• Thermal pollution due to Energy activities
  (power plants)
• Changes in land use affecting the surface albedo
  or the Carbon or the Water cycles
• The emission of CO2 due to burning fossil fuel
  is considered the most important anthropogenic
  forcing
• However, the growth of the atmosferic
  concentration of CO2 lags behind the emitted
  rate (due to natural sinks)

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CLIMATE CHANGE MODELLING
Climate models are still imperfect and
incomplete, on account of the complexity of the
climate system, the level of our understanding of
how it works and the still limited data
available. There are not yet definite
conclusions about the actual climate trends, the
underlying causes and their future developments.
Therefore, climate modelling carries a large
uncertainty in the obtained climate projection.
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GHG Emission Scenarios

• Socio-economic and technological scenarios
• Population
• Standard of living (GDP/Pupulation)
• Energy Intensity (Energy/GDP)
• Carbon intensity (Emissions/Energy)

Emissions (Population) (GDP/Population)
(Energy/GDP) (Emissions/Energy)
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Emissions (Population) (GDP/Population)
(Energy/GDP) (Emissions/Energy) 1980vs1999
Region Population Standard of Living Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity Carbon Emissions
Africa 2.54 -0.58 0.82 -0.01 2.77
Brazil 1.61 0.76 1.83 -0.80 3.43
China 1.37 8.54 -5.22 -0.26 4.00
Japan 0.41 2.62 -0.57 -0.96 1.47
Europe 0.53 1.74 -1.00 -1.06 0.18
USA 0.96 2.15 -1.64 -0.21 1.23
World 1.60 1.28 -1.12 -0.45 1.30
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change
was established in 1988 under the initiative of
the UNEP and WMO. Scenarios produced by the
IPCC are supported on energy consumption and GHG
emission scenarios produced by the International
Energy Agency. These assume that the natural
resources and the carrying capacity of the
environment are both unlimited. The resource
basis of oil and gas does nor support the most
extreme emission scenarios formulated. Climate
modelling introduces further uncertainty. The
necessity of taking measures to curb the growth
of GHG emissions is not universally accepted.
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UN Framework ConventionKyoto Protocol
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
adopted at the Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro, June
1992, and the Kyoto Protocol, adopted at the
third Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC,
December 1997, are the key processes for
negotiating international climate policies and
the reduction in GHG emmissions (namely CO2, CH4,
N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6). The developed countries
thereby accepted binding targets to limit GHG
emissions by at least 5 below the 1990, level in
the period 2008-12, that is, up to 30 below
estimates of the business as usual scenario.
The Kyoto Protocol will help curb the demand for
fossil energy sources and keep energy price under
control.
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The Convention and the Protocol establish
financial devices, the flexibility mechanisms,
that are intended to facilitate the
cost-effective implementation of the Protocol,
namely Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM), Joint
Implementation (JI) and Emission certificate
trading (ET). CDM and JI are project based
mechanisms crediting investing developed
countries for projects implemented in developing
(CDM) and in transition economy (JI) countries.
Emission trading is a scheme whereby governments
allocate emissions allowances to emitting
entities, which those entities can subsequently
trade with each other. Emissions trading converts
scarcity (of fossil fuels) into a new business
oportunity, to which the energy sector
entreprises are particularly disposed.
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European Climate Change Programme
The European Union was a leading negotiator in
achieving the Marrakech agreement, November 2001,
whereas the USA withdrew from the process on
March 28, 2001. The EU committed itself to the
Kyoto Protocol target of colectivelly cutting its
GHG emissions to 8 below the 1990 level by
2008-12. A Kyoto package was adopted comprising
three policy tools the ratification of the Kyoto
Protocol, an European Climate Change Programme
and a framework directive on GHG emissions
trading. Other EU instruments to support this
programme are the EUMETSAT, the European Space
Agency (namely through the recently approved GMES
Programme) and the VI Framework Programme and VI
Environment Action Plan
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• Identified research needs to be supported by the
  VI Framework Programme and VI Environment Action
  Plan
•  Impact of GHG emissions on climate and carbon
  sinks
•   Water cycle
• Biodiversity, protection of genetic resources,
  ecosystems
• Mechanisms of desertification and natural
  disater connected with climate change
• Socio-economic and integrated research for
  mitigation, adaptation and sustained development
•  RTD technological and social innovation
• Renewable energy sources Intelligent transport,
  interoperability and intermodality
• Fuel cells Hydrogen New concepts in PV
  technology

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Fiscal measures, a carbon-energy tax and tax
reduction on energy efficiency are planned. Ten
measures wrere identified whose cost efficiency
will be better than 20 Euro/tonCO2 and may attain
a reduction of 180 Mton CO2 COM(2001)580. Furthe
r policies and measures are being identified,
aiming at cutting GHG emissions and implementing
an emissions trading scheme. A framework for
emissions trading COM(2001)581, due to come
into effect by 2005, relates to the energy sector
and large industrial plants electricity and heat
production, iron and steel, refining, chemicals,
glass, pottery, cement and building materials and
paper pulping and printing. A critical issue is
the initial allocation of allowances. Optional
typologies are auction (allowances provided by
the state through auctioning), grandfathering
(allocation on the basis of historical data) and
update (allocation to sources on information
updated over time).
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CARBON SEQUESTRATION
Carbon management is a concept expressing the use
of fossil primary energy sources with the
implementation of sequestering technologies.
Electrical power plants are the most obvious
target. Capture of CO2 in the flue gases although
requiring expensive investment is feasible. The
required technologies - recovery, concentration,
compression or liquefaction and disposal - are
available from the experience of the petroleum
and petrochemical industries. Carbon management
might comprise CO2 capture from the atmosphere
plus sequestration in large natural reservoirs by
specialized sequestration plants.
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CO2 could be stored by deep ocean injection below
the thermocline, taking advantage of sinking
oceanic currents. Liquid CO2 is stable at the
pressure and temperature found at high depths and
denser than sea water. In the lithosphere, the
most obvious opportunity for sequestration is in
impermeable geological reservoirs. In natural gas
fields, CO2 is being reinjected and, in oil
fields, used to enhance oil recovery. The
biosphere might be instrumental in sequestering
CO2 , but forestation is not a solution unless
soil accumulation of organic matter really takes
place. Enhanced aquatic photosynthesis - ocean
fertilization - followed by biomass sinking below
the mixing layer, would lead to permanent
sedimentation of the captured CO2 .
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ENERGY EffICIENCY
First and Second Principles Efficiencies Thermal
efficiency in energy conversion Combustion
technology Combined cycle power plants (CCGT),
Combined heat and power plants (CHP) Heat pumps
low temperature applications and heat
recovery Combined Heating and Cooling Process
integration and Integrated Energy
systems Material recycling. Direct energy
conversion
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Thermal efficiency of thermal engines
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ALTERNATIVE ENERGY CARRIERS
Prospective energy system scenarios consider a
mix of energy carriers of wich Hydrogen and
Synthetic carbonaceous fuels deserve further
attention. Synthetic carbonaceous fuels (SCF)
have been proposed. Coal is the most available
source of carbon. Coal conversion could provide
all fluid carbonaceous fuels and feedstocks.
Efficiente sequestration of CO2 would be
required. Synthetic carbonaceous fuels could have
zero carbon emission in their lifecycles, by
carrying out the synthesis with Hydrogen obtained
by splitting water and Carbon extracted from the
atmosphere or from the ocean. CO2 incorporated in
a SCF would be reemitted when burnt, maintaining
a zero net balance of CO2 in a cycle akin to
photosynthesis.
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Hydrogen has been proposed as ideal energy
carrier. Its obvious advantage is the zero CO2
emission at the end point and its high heat of
combustion. However, an hydrogen energy economy
raises problems storage, safety and global
energy efficiency of the primary energy source.
Hydrogen is generated and used in certain
chemical industries. It can be obtained from
natural gas, petrochemical feedstocks, coal and
biomass. Efficient Water splitting can be
attained with the supply of high temperature
heat, either directly, or in thermally assisted
electrolysis of steam or in thermocatalytic
cycles. Advanced high-temperature nuclear
reactors and solar furnaces were proposed as the
high-temperature heat source.
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HYDROGEN PRODUCTION by METHANE STEAM REFORMING
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CATALYTIC WATER SPLITTING
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The energy cost of synthetic fuels is mainly due
to the H2 extraction. Once hydrogen production
becomes energetically and economically
interesting, it can be used as feedstock to the
SCF economy. The existing transportation,
distribution, storage and end-use systems can go
on being used, while investments required by the
hydrogen economy might be set up. SCF might
provide a gradual transition from todays range
of fuels towards a single hydrogen rich fuel for
the whole transport sector. Further RD is
required on alternative energy sources, energy
carriers, energy storage and energy conversion
concepts and technologies.