Near and Long Term Technology Outlook

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Near and Long Term Technology Outlook

• Within three years
• Ten years or longer
• Wildcards

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Communication Layers

• Physical Network
• Includes fiber, wire, cable, switches,
  routers,modems,antennas, processors, memory,
  DSPs, system software, operations maintenance
  software, ISP hosts, user PCs, terminal devices,
  etc
• Logical Network
• Includes switching software, routing software,
  protocol software IPv4, IPv6, multicast,
• Applications
• Email, VOIP, VOD, web browsing, blogging,
  webcams, digital broadcasting, remote
  maintenance, security monitoring, media download,
  ecommerce,etc

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Technology Environment (next 3 years)

• Continued deployment of 3G wireless systems and
  multimedia applications even greater
  heterogeneous, web of networks (wired and
  wireless). Fiber mainly a last mile story. WDM
  provides limitless backbone capacity.
• Convergence of entertainment (programming,
  movies, music) on TVs, PCs, iPODs, mobile
  devices Tivo/DVR become primary source of TV
  viewing. Digital broadcasting rules
  entertainment devices networked
• Wireless-enabled 100 PC widespread in Asia,
  Africa, South America windup radios, TVs,
  cellphones
• Initial deployment of IPv6 continued VOIP growth
• 10 Gbyte iPODs, 5Mbyte cellphones w/o video, 160
  Gbyte laptops, DSC video-enabled. MPEG4 Jpeg
  2000 widespread
• New recruits are cellphone, instant messaging,
  blogging savvy

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Next three years (continued)

• RF tags common in retail environment
• Initial use of wireless sensor/activator networks
• Greater integration of smart cards/wireless
  devices ATM, shopping, medical records, secure
  transactions
• Biometrics for on-line secure access
  (fingerprint, voiceprint, retina scan, etc)
• More micropayment services like iTunes
• More peer-to-peer applications put demand on
  upstream bandwidth (eg digital picture uploads)

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Next three years (continued)

• always on and connected moves to mobile devices
• On line digital image albuming and sharing
  becomes major internet application
• Speech synthesis becomes more natural sounding
• Speech recognition better performance for dialing
• Early introduction of media communication agents
  (software that finds cheapest/best route
  supplier)
• Digital rights management issues resolved
• Linux challenges XP (driven by 100 PC)
• Image based search engines part of Google
• Integrated web-browsing and webcam for point of
  sale

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Emerging applications

• IM-style photo sharing sharing personal digital
  pictures and videos while simultaneously
  teleconferencing (Kodak Skype)
• Video browsing making a video/audio call during
  the on-line catalog shopping experience
• Mobile ESPN/iMode bringing video and audio
  entertainment to mobile devices
• Mobile personal databases your life on an iPOD -
  medical, financial, and personal records
  including videos of personal assets

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Long Term (10 years)

• IPv6 penetration at 90 VOIP replaces TDM every
  item sold has an internet address and a radio (RF
  tag or better)
• G3 replaces most G2 and G2.5 deployments
  worldwide
• Broadband to the home full duplex 10Mbps
• No analog TV broadcasting bandwidth re-assigned
  to G3 and unlicensed bands
• 1Terabyte iPOD the norm (enough storage to record
  your entire life in video)
• Speech recognition finally works becomes
  predominant access to information

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Long term (continued)

• Personal TV agent established customized schedule
  each day (the mass audience as we know it is
  dead)
• Creation and distribution of compelling
  multimedia content as prevalent as email today
• Wireless sensor network technologies replace WiFi
  and ethernet LANs
• Multiplayer network gaming exceeds TV viewing
  hours.
• 95 of all bills paid electronically

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Wireless Ad-hoc Home Networks

• Drivers
• Sharing resources, shared control, interaction
• Convenience, mobility, privacy, no wires, no
  planning
• Easy install, self configuring,ubiquity
• Multimedia streaming, open, scalable, multiple
  access
• Emerging Standards
• EIB,European Home Systems,CEBus,Smart
  House,HBS,HomePNA, In-homeDigital
  Networks,Firewire
• Jini, LonWorks, HAVi,Universal plugplay, Home
  plugplay
• Bluetooth 802.11 (2.4Ghz), 802.11a 802.15.3
  (5Ghz) ISL
• ETSI BRAN in Europe and ARIB MMAC in Japan

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Summary

• Next three years more of the same better,
  faster, cheaper, more widespread
• Long term IPv6 and G3 enables more mobility,
  bandwidth, IP addressable devices,security. Home
  networks become ad-hoc, self configuring. Moores
  Laws allows speech recognition to work right and
  basically unlimited portable storage.
• Wildcards ultraband wireless, quantum computing,
  nanomachines,bioinformatics