Valence politics

1
Valence politics

• A.k.a. performance or delivery politics
• Agreement about ends
• Competition about whos best to achieve them
• Key issues economy, crime, education, NHS
• Key variables
• Past records
• Perceptions of competence
• Party image
• Leaders

2
Context I ideological convergence
3
Context II volatility between elections
4
Context III disloyalty to party
5
Context IV attributions of responsibility
6
Overall performance evaluations
7
Most important issue
8
Specific issue evaluations
9
Economy and vote
10
Leader evaluations
11
Campaign evaluations
12
Factors significantly predicting choice
13
Factors significant for neither vote

• Gender
• Newspaper readership
• Social class (objective or subjective)
• Religion
• National identity
• Left-right libertarian-authoritarian issue
  stances
• Preferred local taxation
• Attitudes to Trident
• Evaluations of Labour performance at Westminster
• Party best able to handle crime or public
  services
• Evaluations of McConnell and Salmond

14
So why did the SNP win?

• Enough voters unimpressed with Labour Holyrood
  performance
• SNP persuaded enough voters it would do better
  (and not far behind on the economy)
• Party seen as gradualist gt fundamentalist
• (But nowhere else for hardcore pro-independence
  voters to go)
• Campaigned positively and trusted to govern in
  Scotlands interests
• Labours campaign negative, maybe too
  Westminster-flavoured

15
And why was it so close?

• More Labour party identifiers
• SNP still repels hardcore anti-independence
• Plenty positively evaluated Labours Holyrood
  performance
• And plenty doubted whether SNP would do better
  (especially on the economy)
• Labour not severely punished for
• Negative evaluations of Westminster govt
• Council tax
• Leadership disadvantage