Campaigns and Elections

1
Campaigns and Elections
2
The Structure of American Elections

• Structured to limit popular control and minimize
  chances of factions controlling government
• Schedule
• Terms
• Geography

3
Political Geography of House districts

• Apportionment
• Gerrymandering

4
Electoral College

• Created to provide a check on popular will
• Allocation of Electoral Votes based on size of
  states congressional delegation
• Thwarting the Popular Vote
• 1876Hayes over Tilden (controversial)
• 1888Harrison over Cleveland
• 2000Bush over Gore (controversial)

5
Elections in the U.S. Occur in Two Stages

• Nomination (Primaries)
• The General Election Campaign

6
Functions of campaigns

• Inform
• Persuade
• Mobilize

7
Impact of campaigns

• Conventions
• Usually the most important campaign events
• Frequently produce large swings in public opinion
• Large swings are not always decisive
• Debates
• More modest effects
• Generally informative, especially for
  low-information voters
• Minimal effects?
• Leader on Labor Day almost always wins

8
Perspectives on Voting Behavior

• Social-psychological model
• Party Identification
• Social groups
• Retrospective Voting
• Reward-punishment
• Valence issues
• Prospective Voting
• Issue proximity
• Positional issues

9
(No Transcript)
10
Factors Influencing Voters in 2000
11
Predicting Election Outcomes

• Economy
• Presidential Approval
• Terms in Office

12
Why Isnt Al Gore President?

• Economy and Presidential Approval?
• Clinton Fatigue?
• Campaign?
• Information Environment?

13
Political Participation

• Activities we undertake to choose leaders, give
  information to government, take part in politics.
• Many modes of participation
• Conventional
• Unconventional

14
Who Votes?

• Demographic groups
• Socioeconomic Status
• Age
• Race
• Religion
• Gender
• Resources

15
Who Votes (cont.)?

• Political Attitudes
• Partisanship
• Efficacy
• Civic Duty
• Political Knowledge
• Interest

16
Who Votes?
17
(De)Mobilization Activities

• Party and group activities
• Campaign spending
• Competition, information, GOTV
• Type of election
• Information, interest
• Registration Requirements

18
Trends in Voter Turnout

• Declining turnout since 1960
• Explanations
• Does low turnout matter?
• Cross-national Comparisons Why is turnout so low
  in the U.S.?
• Underlying Civic Attitudes?
• Differences in political systems?