Campaigns and Elections

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Chapter 8
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Campaigns and Elections

• Universal Suffrage
• Turnout
• Voters Perspective
• Campaigning
• Elections
• Strategies - Finance and Incumbency

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Voting Rights

• Obstacles
• States establish the rules
• White, male, 21 years old, land owner
• Poll tax, literacy tests, white only primaries
• The Constitution (Suffrage Amendments)
• 15th Amendment - eliminated race (almost)
• 19th Amendment - eliminated gender
• 23rd Amendment allowed D.C. in Pres Election
• 24th Amendment - eliminated poll tax
• 26th Amendment - lowers age to 18
• Legislation
• Voting Rights Act of 1965 - eliminated literacy
  test type limitations intent on diluting the vote

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Voter Turnout

• Low voter turnout
• 50 percent in presidential elections
• 40 percent in congressional midterm elections
• 20 percent in state and local elections
• 5 percent in state primaries
• Turnout much higher in many European countries

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Comparative Voter Turnout
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Socioeconomic Status

• Education is the strongest, most important
  predictor
• the higher the education level the more likely to
  vote
• Income - the higher the income the greater the
  participation
• Age - 18 to 24 year olds lowest group to
  participate
• Ethnicity - White 68, African American 66,
  Hispanic 36

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Impact of Social Setting

• Depends on three elements
• Resources - Money and Time
• Civic engagement - how you feel about the
  candidates, issues and process
• Candidates character
• Party affiliation
• Issues of least importance
• Recruitment
• Changing generations

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1.52 2.36 25.40 25.42 16.46
Voter Participation by Age Group
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Presidential Election versus Midterm Elections
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Factors Determining How Voters Decide

• Incumbency
• Partisan Loyalty
• Issues
• Candidate Characteristics

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Incumbency

• Public official running for a seat already
  occupying.
• House 98 incumbents win
• Senate 80 - 90 incumbents win
• Safe seats - House versus Senate
• Term limits

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PAC Contributions to Congressional Candidates,
1974 to 1998
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Partisan Loyalty

• Party loyalty may be the best predictor of how an
  individual will vote.
• Partisan loyalties rarely allow a voter to cast a
  ballot for an opposing candidate.

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Clinton 43, Bush 38, Perot 19
Party Identification and Voting Behavior in the
1996 Presidential Election
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11 0 89
48 1 49
93 0 6
Kerry
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Issues

• Issues, such as the state of the economy, are
  also important.
• But it is often difficult to get voters to
  restate a candidates position on a particular
  issue
• Usually the least important

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Candidate Characteristics

• Race, religion, gender, and physical
  characteristics are also important.
• John F. Kennedy had to overcome a resistance to
  voting for a Catholic.
• Background, honesty, intelligence, experience

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Campaigns and Elections

• Nominating Candidates
• Election Campaigns
• Money and Politics
• Electing the Candidates
• Campaign Finance Reform

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Presidential Elections

• Who wants to be President?
• How is the president elected?
• What factors have the greatest impact on a
  general election campaign?

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Election Campaigns

• Advisers
• Polling
• The Elections

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A Typical Presidential Campaign Organization
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Advisers and Consultants

• Candidates utilize political advisors to manage
  their campaigns.
• Develop campaign strategies, conduct polls and
  coordinate the media events.
• James Carville and Dick Morris are some of the
  best-known campaign strategists.

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Campaigning Techniques

• Polling
• Broadcast Media
• spot ads
• town meetings
• infomercials
• debates
• Phone Banks
• Direct Mail
• Public Relations
• Internet

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Polling

• Conducting political polls is essential for a
  successful campaign.
• Must ascertain the will of the people and tailor
  a message that appeals to the voters
• Benchmark Poll
• Tracking Poll
• Rolling Polls
• Focus Groups

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Money and Politics

• 500,000 for a House seat
• 5,000,000 for a Senate seat
• 50 - 100,000,000 for President

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Sources of Campaign Funds

• The Federal Election Commission monitors campaign
  fundraising.
• Sources of funds include hard money
• individuals - 50
• political action committees (PAC) - 25
• the candidate - 25
• parties and soft money,
• public funding.
• Limits - individual 2300, group 5000
• Increased in 2003 to 2000 inflation factor
  from 1000

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Money and Politics

• Winners out spend losers 2 to 1
• 10 months of face to face equals 2 days of large
  state wide TV coverage
• Its expensive for a one point increase
• 15 - 75 15,000 per percentage point
• 76 - 100 25,000 per point

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PACs Give Postelection Donations to Winners
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Campaign Finance Reform

• Both parties have argued that reforms should be
  made to the campaign finance system.
• Incumbents are reluctant to give up the financial
  advantage.
• Each party fears that reform would benefit the
  other side
• Democrats would not give up PAC contributions
• Republican would give up PAC contributions
• Future soft money and 527s in campaign funding
  and advocacy issues.

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Soft Money Raised by Political Parties, 1992 to
1998
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Electoral Districts

• Drawn by the state legislatures following
  reapportionment
• Political gerrymandering is well accepted.
• Racial gerrymandering was declared to be
  unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.

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Newest Map 2007
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Newest Map 2007
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The Electoral Process

• Historically the party had meeting to negotiate
  candidate positions
• Today Presidential hopefuls must compete in a
  series of primaries and caucuses or conventions
  to win delegates at the national convention.
• The winner of the primary season will receive the
  partys nomination.

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The Primaries

• A direct primary is an election held within a
  party to select a nominee for a general election.
• Must defeat party contenders to win a spot on the
  general election ballot
• Requires winning the approval of the party
  activists

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Types of Primaries

• Primary elections
• Closed
• Open
• Blanket
• Caucus
• Runoff elections

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National Party Conventions

• Selects the partys candidate for president.
• Party used the caucus in early years.
• Has become more democratic since the 1960s.
• Winner know usually well in advance.
• Some feel its now a giant infomercial.
• Established future rules.
• Writes party platform.

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The Criteria for Winning

• Majority
• Southern primaries
• Plurality
• General election
• Proportional Representation
• European elections

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Types of Elections

• General election - regularly scheduled national
  elections held in even numbered years on the
  first Tuesday in November.
• Presidential
• Mid Term
• Special election - state and/or local election
  necessary before next general election.

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The Ballot

• Prior to 1890 - Controlled by party
• Utilizes a neutral ballot that contains the
  candidates for all the eligible parties
• Party-column versus office-block ballot
• Permits split-ticket and straight-ticket voting
• Coattail effect possible with popular candidate

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The Electoral College

• Electors are chosen by each state to meet after
  the popular election to cast ballots for the
  president and vice president.
• Electors equal to the number of House and Senate
  members.
• Need 270 of 538 to win.
• Possible to win popular vote and lose election.

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State Electoral Votes
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The General Election

• The general presidential election contest is
  about winning 270 electoral college votes.
• This forces the candidates to focus on the states
  with large delegations (California, Texas, etc.).
• Organizationally driven
• Media driven

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The 2000 Election

• The 2000 election was mired in controversy,
  including
• media confusion regarding the projected winner
  of key states,
• the mandated recount of the Florida popular
  vote,
• confusion in the Florida courts regarding
  extent of manual recounts,
• U.S. Supreme Court decision rejecting recounts.
• Bush was declared the winner with a 271 to 267
  vote in the electoral college.
• 2004