International Relations Theory

1
??????International Relations Theory

• SUN, KUO-SHYANG(???)
• Assistant Professor of Institute of Asia-Pacific
  Studies, Nanhua University
• (?????????????)

2
power transition theory

• Overview
• I. Key components of Power Transition
  Theory/Fundamentals of International Politics
• II. Cooperation and Conflict
• III.Historical Examples/Empirical Tests
• IV.Diplomacy/Policy Prescriptions

3
power transition theory

• Introduction
• End of Cold War
• How should the United States attempt to manage
  world politics (China)?
• How will critical alliances (NATO) evolve?
• How can regional conflicts be managed?
• How will nuclear deterrence affect the stability
  of deterrence?

4
power transition theory

• I. Key components of Power Transition Theory.
• PT theory has four central components
• A.     Structure of the international system
• B.     Power
• C.     Satisfaction
• D.     Alliances

5
power transition theory

• A. The Structure of PT Theory
• According to PT theory, the international system
  is hierarchically organized.
•        There is a dominant state, but the state
  is not a hegemon.
•        After the dominant state, there are great
  powers, middle powers, and small powers.
•        The dominant state sets the rules for the
  world.
•        Occasionally, some great powers are not
  fully integrated into the dominant states
  regime. They are potential challengers.
  Specifically, challengers must have 80 or more
  of the dominant countrys power.
•        There are also regional hierarchies.

6
power transition theory

• B. Power the ability to impose on or persuade
  an opponent to comply with demands. Power is a
  function of three key elements.
•  Size of population. Population and great power
  status.
•  Economic productivity. Endogenous growth
  theory.
•  (Relative) political capacity the
  effectiveness of the political system in
  extracting and pooling individual contributions
  to advance national goals.
• Countries with low economic development have
  difficulty extracting resources from their
  economy. Why?

7
power transition theory

• C. Dissatisfaction
•       The dominant power establishes the status
  quo (SQ).
•       Some great powers are satisfied with the
  SQ, others are dissatisfied.
•       Dissatisfaction can be based on
  historical, ideological, religious, territorial,
  personal, or cultural factors
•       Dissatisfied states want to change the SQ,
  or the rules of the game.

8
power transition theory

• D. Alliances
• Nations that share common preferences will form
  stable alliances (NATO).
• Alliances between satisfied-dissatisfied states
  will not last long.

9
power transition theory

• II. Cooperation and Conflict
• A. Why does conflict occur?
• Opportunity and Willingness.

10
power transition theory

• B. In terms of opportunity, two conditions are of
  the most importance power parity and power
  overtaking.
• 1.      Power parity.
• 2. An overtaking is the result of either
  increased productivity or political capacity.

11
power transition theory

• C. Ultimately, however, conflict is about
  different preferences and policy differences, and
  these stem from a countrys satisfaction with the
  status quo. i.e. Willingness
•  
• 1.      What is satisfaction? It is about
  similarity of governments foreign policy
  goals
• 2. States with similar economic and political
  institutions are likely to be satisfied.

12
power transition theory

• D. In general, you ensure stability in two ways
  deterrence, i.e. ensuring power preponderance,
  and satisfaction-building.

13
power transition theory

• E. PT theory on the initiation, timing, severity
  and consequences of war. 
• 1. Who is more likely to initiate a conflict?
• a.       Why doesnt a dominant power take
  advantage of its enormous power advantage prior
  to parity, to initiate war against its real or
  potential enemies? 
• 2. Timing of War.
• 3. Severity of War.
• 4. Duration of War
• 5. Consequences of War the Phoenix factor.
  Defeated great powers will quickly regain power
  and return to their position in the international
  system within one generation. Why? Policy
  implications?
• 6. Nuclear Weapons.

14
power transition theory

• III. Historical Examples/Empirical Tests
  Britain and Germany Iran and Iraq.
• Empirical Tests of PT Theory
• Power transition theory predicts that war (global
  or regional) will be most likely when
• 1) There is parity between the dominant power and
  challenger, and
• 2) The challenger surpasses the dominant power
  (overtaking), and
• 3) The challenger is dissatisfied

15
power transition theory

• IV. Diplomacy/Policy Prescriptions Potential
  Future Transitions
•         China overtaking the US
•         India overtaking either China or the US
  in the last half of the 21st century
•         Expand NATO to include Russia and
  perhaps China
•         Change the permanent UN Security Council
  members
•         Manage satisfaction through
  democratization and trade
•         Settle territorial disputes, such as
  Taiwan
•         Prevent nuclear proliferation
•         Manage local crises, but the US should
  not be a policeman for the world

16
power transition theory

• Created by F. K. Organski and originally
  published in his textbook, World Politics (1958),
  power transition theory today describes
  international politics as a hierarchy.

17
power transition theory

• Created by F. K. Organski and originally
  published in his textbook, World Politics (1958),
  power transition theory today describes
  international politics as a hierarchy.

18
power transition theory

• (1) a "dominant" state, the one with the largest
  proportion of power resources (population,
  productivity, and political capacity meaning
  coherence and stability)

19
power transition theory

• (2) "great powers," a collection of potential
  rivals to the dominant state and who share in the
  tasks of maintaining the system and controlling
  the allocation of power resources

20
power transition theory

• (3) "middle powers" of regional significance
  similar to the dominant state, but unable to
  challenge the dominant state or the system
  structure, and

21
power transition theory

• (4) "small powers," the rest.

22
power transition theory

• The principle predictive power of the
  theory is in the likelihood of war and the
  stability of alliances. War is most likely, of
  longest duration, and greatest magnitude, when a
  challenger to the dominant power enters into
  approximate parity with the dominant state and is
  dissatisfied with the existing system.

23
power transition theory

• Alliances are most stable when the parties
  to the alliance are satisfied with the system
  structure. There are further nuances to the
  theory for instance, the sources of power
  transition vary in their volitility, population
  change being the least volatile and political
  capacity (defined as the ability of the
  government to control resources internal to the
  country) the most volatile.

24
power transition theory

• Developed by Kenneth Organski in the 1950
• Rejects Realism
• A. Realists Assume System Is Characterized
• By Anarchy Equality
• B. Realists Predict Equality in the Power Of
• States or Coalitions Leads to Peace
• Explains Hegemonic Wars
• Change Triggered by Uneven Growth Rates Across
  Units

25
power transition theory
26
power transition theory

• 1. Important Caveat Dissatisfaction
• 2. Is Organski Correct?
• A) Explains Distribution of Power in System
• B) Satisfaction Caveat Is Dangerous
• C) Hard to Test

27
power transition theory

• Quiz
• Power transition theorists argue that three
  conditions make war more likely parity,
  overtaking, and ______________.
• Arms races
• Dissatisfaction with the status quo
• Risk-acceptance
• Alliances
• None of the above

28
power transition theory

• Quiz 2. Power transition theorists make each of
  the following policy recommendations except
• NATO should be expanded to include Russia.
• The permanent members of the United Nations
  Security Council should be altered to reflect the
  current distribution of power among great powers.
  
• The U.S. should encourage the proliferation of
  nuclear weapons to other countries.
• The U.S. should not become a policeman of the
  world, but rather focus its efforts on the
  preservation of its alliances that maintain power
  preponderance.
• The U.S. and other countries need to resolve
  outstanding territorial disagreements.

29
power transition theory

• Quiz 3.Power transition theorists see two
  possible great power transitions for the future.
  These transitions are predicted to occur between
  
• China and the U.S., or India and China/U.S.
• Germany and United States, or Germany and China
• China and the U.S., or Russia and the U.S.
• India and China/U.S., or Germany and United
  States
• Canada and the U.S., or Canada and Mexico

30
power transition theory

• Quiz 4. Power transition theory postulates that a
  countrys power is a function of population,
  economic productivity, and _______________.
• Military personnel
• Military spending
• Number of colonies
• Nuclear weapons
• Relative political capacity

31
power transition theory

• Quiz 5. According to power transition theorists,
  the ability for losers of great power wars to
  recover relatively quickly from the consequences
  of war (after one generation) is called the
  _______________.
• Long Cycle Theory
• Democratic Peace
• Phoenix Factor
• Rapid Recovery
• Luck of the Draw