WinDS-H2 MODEL Wind Deployment Systems Hydrogen Model

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WinDS-H2 MODELWind Deployment Systems Hydrogen
Model

• Workshop on Electrolysis Production of Hydrogen
  from Wind and Hydropower
• Walter Short
• Nate Blair
• September 9, 2003

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Presentation Contents

• Background
• Representation of wind in WinDS
• Representation of hydrogen in WinDS-H2
• Questions that WinDS-H2 might answer
• System configuration
• Factors considered/Assumptions/Control strategy
• Preliminary results
• Conclusions
• Additional Modeling Required

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Background/Status

• Initial WinDS model did not include H2
• Under development since 2002
• First results for wind electricity only available
  in May 2003
• WinDS-H2 development began in June 2003
• Initial version does not consider sources of H2
  other than wind
• Have a few preliminary results today
• Seeking your input on how to improve our current
  approach

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WinDS Model

• A multi-regional, multi-time-period model of
  capacity expansion in the electric sector of the
  U.S
• Designed to estimate market potential of wind
  energy in the U.S. for the next 20 50 years
  under different technology development and policy
  scenarios

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WinDS is Designed to Address the Principal Market
Issues for Wind

• Access to and cost of transmission
• Class 4 close to the load or class 6 far away?
• How much wind can be transmitted on existing
  lines?
• Will wind penetrate the market if it must cover
  the cost of new transmission lines?
• Intermittency
• How does wind capacity credit change with
  penetration?
• How do ancillary service requirements that
  increase non-linearly with market penetration
  impact wind viability
• How much would dispersal of wind sites help?

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WinDS Addresses These Issues Through

• Many wind supply and demand regions
• Constraints on existing transmission available to
  wind
• Explicit accounting for regulation and operating
  reserves, wind oversupply, and for wind capacity
  value as a function of the amount and dispersion
  of wind installations
• Tracking individual wind installations by
  supply/demand region, wind class and transmission
  line vintage

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General Characteristics of WinDS

• Linear program optimization (cost minimization)
  for each of 25 two-year periods from 2000 to 2050
• Sixteen time slices in each year 4 daily and 4
  seasons
• 4 levels of regions wind supply/demand, power
  control areas, NERC areas, Interconnection areas
• 4 wind classes (3-6), wind on existing AC lines
  and wind on new transmission lines
• Other generation technologies hydro, gas CT,
  gas CC, 4 coal technologies, nuclear, gas/oil
  steam

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WinDS Regions
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Updated Wind Resources with Fewer Land-Use
Exclusions
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Transmission in WinDS
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Wind Intermittency in WinDS

• Constraints
• Capacity credit to reserve margin requirement
• Operating reserve
• Surplus wind
• Probabilistic treatment
• Explicitly accounts for correlation between wind
  sites
• Updated values between periods

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Wind Contribution to Reserve Margin

• Uses LOLP to estimate the additional load (ELCC)
  that can be met by the next increment of wind

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Operating Reserve Constraint

• Ensures adequate spinning reserve, quick-start
  capacity and interruptible load are available to
  meet normal requirements plus those imposed by
  wind

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Surplus Wind
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Wind Costs

• Cost and performance vary by wind class, and over
  time according to user inputs or with learning
• PTC or ITC with start/stop dates, term, rate
• Capital cost can increase with rough terrain
• Price penalty on capital costs for rapid national
  and regional growth
• Financing explicitly accounted for
• Transmission costs
• Existing lines /kWh/mile or postage stamp
• New lines /kW/mile penalties for rough terrain
  and dense population

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Conventional Technology Constraints
Planned Outages
Forced Outages
Reserve Margin
Operating reserve
Load
Imports
Exports
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Hydroelectricity in WinDS

• No capacity expansion allowed
• Retirements both scheduled and unscheduled
• Generation constrained by water availability (set
  to average over last 5 years)
• Dispatched as needed for peaking power
• Not constrained by irrigation, recreation,
  environmental considerations, etc.

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WinDS-H2

• Modified form of the WinDS model that includes
  the on-site use of wind generated electricity to
  produce H2 through electrolysis
• Status
• Initial version under development
• Selected preliminary results available today
• Seeking your comments

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Questions WinDS-H2 Can Help Answer

• What is the market potential for H2 from wind
  nationally? Regionally?
• What improvements are required in electrolyzers,
  storage, fuel cells and H2 transport to make
  wind-H2 competitive?
• Does the possibility of H2 production from wind
  increase the potential of wind power?
• What will be the principal use of H2 from wind -
  H2 fuel or fuel-cell-firming of wind?
• Will local H2-fuel demand spur much wind-H2?

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Wind-H2 System Configuration
Transmission to Grid
Fuel cell
H2 Storage
Electrolyzer
H2-fuel transport
Compressor
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H2 Factors Considered by WinDS-H2

• H2 and fuel cells
• Fuel cells contribute 100 to reserve margin
• Higher transmission line capacity factor
• Fuel cells contribute 100 to operating reserves
• Reduction in surplus wind
• H2 transportation fuel production
• Transportation cost
• Local vs remote transportation fuel demand

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Major Assumptions in WinDS-H2

• Only new wind farms have the option to produce
  H2, because
• Power purchase agreements
• Wind turbine and power controls
• Transmission requirements
• There is a market for H2 fuel at a fixed price
• Market size varies with region
• Fuel cells used only to fill-in behind wind

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Control Strategy Summary

• The fraction of each wind farms capacity
  dedicated to H2 production is the same from one
  year to the next
• The fractions of H2 sent to the fuel cell and
  sold as fuel are the same from one year to the
  next for each wind farm
• Size H2 storage for daily peak load use of H2 in
  fuel cell
• Generate with the fuel cell only during daily
  peak load period to firm up the wind generation
• Use fuel cell generation to provide operating
  reserve as required
• Use electrolyzers to reduce/eliminate surplus
  wind generation

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Base Case H2 Inputs
Component Capital Cost Operating Cost Efficiency
Electrolyzer 600/kW 0.10/Kg 0.75
Storage 100/kg 0.10/kg 1.0
Fuel Cell 600/kW 2/MWh 0.5
Compressor 0 0 1.0
Transport 0.001/Kg/mile
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Base Case Capacity Results
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Base Case H2 Inputs (contd)

• Price of H2 fuel 2.50/kg
• Maximum regional demand for H2 fuel
• 5 million kg

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H2 Fuel Production Sensitivity
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Sensitivity to H2 Component Capital Costs
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Preliminary Conclusions

• H2 can be modeled in the WinDS model
• H2 from wind can be attractive at reasonable
  electrolyzer and fuel cell cost and performance
• Wind market penetration may be increased if the
  cost and performance of the electrolysis-fuel
  cell cycle can be improved

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Additional Modeling Required

• Refine existing WinDS-H2 model
• Implement consensus suggestions from this
  workshop both data and model
• Include competitive sources of H2
• Distributed electrolysis
• Natural gas SMR
• Biomass
• Hydroelectricity