June 12, 2006

1

Global Warming A Boost to Nuclear Power The Boot
to Nuclear Hydrogen

• June 12, 2006
• JOSEPH ROMM
• jromm_at_cap-e.com

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CLIMATE BOTTOM LINE

• Most warming goes into oceans poles
• Super-hurricanes are now the norm
• 10 more years of inaction 4 to 6 F warming
• Greenland goes (20 feet of sea level rise)
• 20 years 6 to 10 F warming
• Serious Antarctic ice loss (80 feet)
• Sea level rise 6 to 12 inches per decade possible

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TUNDRA FEEDBACK
At 550 ppm, 60 of top permafrost goes. At 690,
90 (lt. blue) (Lawrence, NCAR, 2005) Tundra C
Atmo C Much of it CH4 Not in IPCC models
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TIME FOR DELAY HAS RUN OUT

• Were at 380 ppm CO2, rising 2 ppm/yr
• If 500 rising in 2050, plan on 700 in 2100
• Global emissions must peak 2025
• We must cut CO2 emissions gt50 by 2050.
• We must stop building traditional coal plants
• We must have average new car 60 mpg in 2040

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New Coal Build by Decade
670
500
221
gt1 trillion in misallocated capital
Source IEA, WEO 2004
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Unconventional Oil is Climate Disaster

• Tar Sands Use CH4 to make C-intensive fuel
• Coal-to-Oil Double the CO2 emissions
• Still a bad idea with carbon capture
• Enhanced Oil Recovery diverts captured CO2
• Should NOT be valued as geologic storage
• Shale 1.2 GW for 100,000 barrels a day

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The 7 Barriers to AFVs

• 1) High first cost for vehicle
• 2) Storage (i.e. limited range)
• 3) Safety and liability
• 4) High fueling cost (compared to gasoline)
• 5) Limited fuel stations Chicken egg problem
• 6) Not a cost-effective pollution-reducer
• 7) Tough competition Hybrids

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The Hype About Hydrogen

• Total time to noticeable impact is likely to
  be more than 50 years. Heywood, MIT, 7/05
• If I told you never, would you be upset?
• Toyotas Bill Reinert on when H2 replaces gas,
  1/05
• Forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen, forget
  hydrogen. James Woolsey, 1/06
• After CO2 emissions from electricity generation
  are virtually eliminated. Science, 7/03

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Car of the Future Plug in Hybrids

• 20-mile electric range, then reverts to hybrid
• Could displace half of gasoline
• Works best with carbon cap
• Blend in cellulosic ethanol
• Why use future clean electricity for H2?
• Plug in uses electricity 3 to 4 times more
  efficiently
• Make use of existing infrastructure/vehicles

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Nuclear Hydrogen Fuel Costs Three Times More Than
Nuclear Electricity(Idaho National Lab Analysis,
12/05)
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David Barber, Nuclear Programs, INL, 3/05

• Not even nuclear energy can turn hydrogen into a
  winner.
• There certainly will not be an overabundance of
  clean energy to squander on an inefficient
  hydrogen loop, particularly when the same tasks
  can be accomplished directly with the original
  electricity. Not this century, anyway.

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2020 Vision

• Oil Prices at Current or Higher Levels
• Global desperation about global warming
• Nuclear electricity resurgence very possible
• Hybrids the dominant vehicle platform
• Plug-in hybrids the rapidly emerging platform
• H2 fuel cell vehicles probably a dead end
• No future for nuclear hydrogen
• jromm_at_cap-e.com