Discussion, VISTAS Comments, Next Steps

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Discussion, VISTAS Comments, Next Steps

• April 6, 2005
• Joint Planning and Technical Analysis Work Group
  Meeting

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Next Steps

• Analysis of current Runs
• Emission Inventory Updates
• IPM Run
• Schedule for Annual Runs
• Possible Sensitivity Runs
• Natural Background Analysis
• What else?

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2018 OTWc Annual Reasonable Progress
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Preliminary Results
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Yes No Maybe Undetermined
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Next Steps 2018 OTWc

• Complete 12 km 2018 OTWc
• Update results for all Class I Areas
• Share results with other RPOs
• Post results on web
• Begin analysis of results

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2018 OTWc Analysis of Results

• Day to day model performance and impact on model
  response
• 2002 Actual needs to be rerun with SOA mods
• Review back trajectories on 20 percent worst days
  to understand model response
• Review emissions changes in source regions to
  evaluate model response at IMPROVE site
• Prioritize work by starting with inconclusive
  and likely below target sites, but analysis
  should be done for all sites
• Explore issues like sulfate increase in winter at
  some sites

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2018 OTWc Alternative Procedures for RRFs

• Continue work to evaluate Method 4 (weighted RRF
  approach) and Method 5 (average quarterly RRF
  using all data)
• Continue work on when and how to exclude poor
  model performance days
• How to address days with fire
• Establish procedures for addressing missing data
  at Shining Rock and Breton Island

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2018 OTWc Alternative Procedures for RRFs

• Circulate white paper to TAWG and Planning Work
  Groups
• Review and discuss white paper and full suite of
  alternatives before June 8-10 National RPO
  meeting
• Present analysis of alternative procedures at
  national meeting share white paper with other
  RPOs

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Emission Inventory Issues

• Correction of area source NOx in NC for 2002,
  2018, KY point
• Inclusion of other RPOs EI for 2002, 2018
• Evaluate NH3 and PM2.5 emissions from utilities
  in 2002 and 2018 EI
• Create new temporal profiles for EGUs outside
  VISTAS?
• IPM Review final CAIR to VISTAS1
• Evaluate Primary OC EI can it be improved?
• USFS forecast for prescribed burn
• Separate soil and other in EI
• Hg output from IPM
• MACT for coke ovens

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New IPM Run Schedule

• April 11, 2005 Stakeholders provide comments to
  States
• April 18, 2005 States provide comments to IPM
  coordinators in each RPO
• April 21, 2005 IPM coordinators discuss
  feedback
• April 26, 2005 Data delivered to ICF

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New IPM Run Schedule

• May 3, 2005 ICF call with IPM coordinators
• May 5, 2005 Call with RPOs to discuss issues
• May 11, 2005 Final decision on IPM run
• 2018 OTW will be delivered 5 weeks later
• 3 weeks to convert to SMOKE ready inputs
• CMAQ results available at August 16-18 Mtg

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Questions

• When to rerun 2002 Base?
• When to incorporate other RPO EIs?
• When to rerun 2002 Typical?
• When to rerun 2018 OTB?
• Suggest that we redo these runs to coincide with
  the new 2018 OTW with updated IPM run comments?

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Suggested sensitivity runs

• 36 km annual run evaluating additional 30 percent
  elevated SO2 reductions beyond 2018 OTW by RPO
• VISTAS
• MANE-VU
• MRPO
• CENRAP
• To evaluate impact of additional SO2 reductions
  in each RPO on those Class I areas not making
  progress, or inconclusive

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Natural Background

• Participate in national meeting in June
• Schedule call after June meeting to discuss next
  steps
• Provide input to STAD at August meeting on impact
  of possible changes

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What is missing?