Global Population: Are We Doomed

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Global Population Are We Doomed???
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Global Population Are We Doomed???

• Overview
• Global Population
• Carrying Capacity
• Ecological Footprint
• Ideas..

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Humans are Recent Arrivals
6 Billion

• Earth - 5 Billion Years
• Multi-cell Biota - 600 Million Years
• Human Beings 2 Million Years
• Human Population Growth into Billions - Last
  200 years

A Million Years Of Human Growth
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A Closer Look

• 12,000 years
• 200 Million by 1 A.D.

• 2,000 Years
• 1 Billion in 1800 A.D.

The Industrial Revolution
1 Billion
200 million
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Three Technological Eras

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Two Eras of Growth

• Agriculture and Animal Domestication
• Provided for a few to feed many
• Industrial Revolution
• Growth of Cities and Infrastructure
• Increased Productivity
• Nutrition
• Sanitation
• Medicine

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Whats Behind Population Growth

• Demographic Factors
• Fertility Longevity
• Infant Mortality
• Age Distribution

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Fertility Trends

• Population predictions are very sensitive to
  future fertility assumptions
• At 1990 fertility rates (constant by region)
  population would grow to 110 billion in 2100,
  over 700 billion in 2150
• Fertility rate has been dropping since 1800 in
  developed nations - now at Zero Growth
• Is on its way down in much of the developing
  world

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Population Facts

• World population grows 80-90 million each year
• 1800--First billion,
• 1 billion every 11 years
• 90 occurring in developing nations
• If 6 billion people formed a line, with each
  occupying 1 foot, the line would wrap around the
  Earth 42 times.

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U.S. Population

• Third Most Populous Country in the World
• 295 million current
• Growing by more than 2.4 million a year
• .9 makes the U.S. the fastest growing
  industrialized nation in the world
• 1997-3.9 million births and 2.3 million deaths
• Adding net migration (826,681) 2.5 million
  people
• 2050-390 million people
• 76 per/mile to 111 per/mile

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Population What to do?

• China
• Answers need to be sensitive to
• Morals and Values
• Culture
• Religion
• Need
• What could we do in the US?

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Population May Overshoot
Overshoot the situation when human demand
exceeds natures supply at the local, national,
or global scale. According to William Catton, it
is growth beyond an areas carrying capacity,
leading to crash.
When Population Outpaces Resources
Scenario - current population trend, doubled
resources (5)
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Overshoot?

• 500 million people face water shortages
• By 2025 1/2 will face water shortages
• Lost over 50 of the worlds forested area
• 86 increase in paper consumption 1961-1994
• Estimated 16 million (Ha) lost yearly (size of
  New England)
• 6 million acres of prime farmland (E.G. Vermont)
  lost to urban expansion and erosion in the US
  between 1982-92
• 27,000 species of plant and animal lost every
  year
• 6.3 billion tons of global emissions
• Atmospheric temperature at 14.4 (Highest since
  1866)
• Source (Population Reference Bureau, World
  Resources Institute)

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Carrying capacity

• Number of individuals that can be maintained in
  an area over time without harming the habitat
• Limiting factors for most populations
• Availability of raw materials
• Availability of energy
• Accumulation of waste products
• Interaction among organisms

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Impact Population and Consumption

• Total environmental effect is the product of the
  impact per individual times the total number of
  individuals
• Paul Erlich

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IPAT Demographics and Economics

• Impact PAT
• Population
• Affluence
• Technology
• CO2 Emissions (Pop) (GDP per capita) (CO2
  emissions per unit of GDP)

of global income
84.7
1.4
Poorest 20
Richest 20
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Ecological footprint

• Ecological Footprint assessments compute how much
  biologically productive land and sea area a
  population (an individual, a city, a nation or
  all of humanity) requires for the resources it
  consumes and to absorb its waste using prevailing
  technology.

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Impacts of U.S. Population

• Less than 5 of the worlds population
• Consume 25 of the worlds resources
• 25-35 of the worlds emissions of CO2
• One U.S. citizen
• 2.5 Japanese 6.6 Mexicans 16.5 Chinese 28
  Indians 121 Bangladeshis
• 501 million passenger cars in the world
• U.S. has 125 million or 25 of total

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Impacts in context

• Ecological Footprints
• United States - 5 hectares/person
• Developing nations - 0.5 hectare/person
• For everyone to live at todays US footprint
  would require 4 planet Earths
• Increasing affluence and population is
• damaging Earths essential ecology

• Consumption of Industrialized Nations (22 of
  Pop.)
• 60 of the worlds food
• 70 of its energy
• 75 of its metals
• 85 of its wood products
• U.S. military is the largest domestic oil
  consumer and generates more toxic waste than the
  five largest multi-national chemical companies in
  the world
• Source (Population Reference Bureau, World
  Resources Institute)

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What do we do about consumption?

• High-income countries with a dominant secular
  consumer culture consume a disproportionate
  amount of the world's resources and are
  responsible for emitting a disproportionate share
  of the world's air pollution, toxic wastes, and
  trash.

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What do we do about consumption?

• Our ways of production and consumption are
  embedded in our culture, which means that moving
  onto a path of more sustainable production and
  consumption requires a cultural change.

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Path Dependence
What do we do about consumption?

• Many (not all) firms will generally oppose a
  change to more sustainable production methods
  because they will result in higher costs and
  lower profits.
• Many consumers will also oppose more sustainable
  production methods because some of the higher
  cost will be passed on in the form of higher
  product prices.

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What do we do about consumption?

• To be politically feasible, sustainable
  production technology must create profit
  opportunities for firms and so create a
  supportive economic interest group.
• More sustainable products must provide
  approximately similar service quality as existing
  goods and not be too much more expensive, in
  order to gain consumer support.

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What do we do about consumption?

• Ecolables (consume friendly)
• Ecological Tax Reform/accounting (Internalize the
  externality)
• Conserve (consume less)
• Technology
• Durability
• Cultural change

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Population Consumption

• What are the answers?