D'O'E' Perspective

1
SOLAR Nakul Munjal Babson Energy and
Environmental Club
D.O.E. Perspective

• U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook
• Excludes potential geopolitical crises
• TR Domestic production rate is lower than
  domestic consumption rate
• BL Maintains bleak outlook on alternative
  sources
• BR Implies that the biggest opportunities are
  not in alternative

2

• Technology Advancement
• Private and Educational funding
• Solar cell is currently in its 3rd Gen.
• New materials being tested
• Nanotechnology research
• Rapid advancement

U.S. Photovoltaic Shipments

• Industry Growth
• Exponential Growth since 2000
• Poly-silicon shortage in 2006
• Primary Limiting factors
• Manufacturing costs
• Processed Silicon availability
• Measurable gains (Peak Kwh)

3
Mono-crystalline Poly-crystalline CIGS -
Amorphous
Polysilicon (SiO2?SOG)
Wafers (SOG casting Ingot
cutting)
Cells (Cell Preparation)
Modules (Encapsulation)
Systems (Installation)

• Polysilicon
• 10 Producers worldwide
• Raw material Quartz (mined)
• Fairly high barriers to entry
• Wafers
• 50 Wafer and Ingot producers WW
• Standard wafer 240 um
• Thin film wafer 8-10 um
• Cells
• Cell preparation/Antireflective coatings
• Chemically intensive process
• 65 cell producers WW
• Modules
• - Encapsulation and solar panel construction
• Systems
• - Installation and Maintenance

4
Polysilicon (SiO2?SOG)
The Major Cost Driver of Solar Today

• Current Technology 100cells?200Wh module
• 50 cells (240 um) per KG of raw P.S.
• 2 KGs to make one 200 pKWh module
• 1 Metric Ton will make 500 modules or 1000 pKwH
• 1250 Metric Tons ? 1.25 Gigawatts of power!
• Poly-silicon Production (MW)

• Raw Polysilicon is 40 of the total cost (150 -
  200/KG Virgin, 50-80/KG Scrap)
• Fears of P.S. shortages due to loose oligopoly
• Polysilicon Industry Trends
• Enormous Solar push in China (full chain)
• Lower Labor costs, SGA, Taxes, RD
• Large P.S. supply contracts start in 2008 with
  the 3 primary China Suppliers
• Produces 20 of the worlds P.S.
• P.S. supply has doubled since 2004
• Largest solar manufacturers are increasing
  capacity as a result of the 2006 shortage
• Many ingot producers are collecting reserves to
  start production in 2007
• Projected Plant Production is 1250 Metric Tons
  (Three China Plants)

5

• Cell Production
• -Receives largest portion of RD funds
• -Nanotechnology testing (Stanford)
• -Many ancillary chemical processes
• - Anti-reflective coatings
• - Surface prep alkalines
• Goal Maximize light absorption with more surface
  area and minimal reflection

Wafers (SOG casting Ingot
cutting)
Cells (Cell Preparation)

• Wafer Production
• Cost per KwH and availability of P.S. are the
  primary drivers
• Energy Conversion Devices (Amorphous Silicon
  Alloy)
• Evergreen Solar (Proprietary Silicon String
  Ribbon technology)
• Wafer thickness/efficiency tradeoff
• Q.C. measure
• Purity of Ingots
• Minimal P.S. wastage

6
Modules (Encapsulation)
Systems (Installation)

• Systems Applications
• Customized process with many different kinds of
  companies
• Current architecture trend Artistic integration
  of solar technology in homes
• Remote residential, village power, standalone
  systems (lights, fans, etc.), and building
  integration
• Reflective Concentrators

• Module Manufacturing
• Mechanical, specialized, low capital requirement
• Hundreds of companies worldwide