Modeling European Emissions of Black Carbon

1
Modeling European Emissions of Black Carbon

• Zbigniew Klimont1) and Kaarle Kupiainen2)
• 1) International Institute for Applied Systems
  Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria2) Nordic Envicon
  Oy, Helsinki, Finland

UN/ECE Task Force on Integrated Assessment
ModellingWorkshop on Linkages and Synergies of
Regional and Global Emission ControlsIIASA,
Laxenburg, AustriaJanuary 27-29, 2003
2
Global distribution of BC emissions in 1996
(Bond and Streets, work in progress)
3
Method

• Current RAINS-PM module (Klimont et al., 2002)
  developed further to include BC, OC, and PM1
• Emissions of sub-micron BC calculated for
  anthropogenic sources (gt300 activity/sector
  combinations abatement options)
• Activity data originate from the RAINS model
  database
• Emission factors and removal efficiencies based
  on literature review (Kupiainen and Klimont,
  2003 under preparation) and checked for
  consistency with the RAINS-PM database
• Emissions from biomass burning, industrial
  processes, cigarette smoking, grilling, etc.,
  not included in the presented results

4
Black Carbon emissions in Europe (by
region)Current Legislation Scenario kt
1990 1995 2000 2010
Western Europe 229 226 199 109
EU-15 223 220 194 106
Norway and Switzerland 6 6 5 3
Central and Eastern Europe 174 119 121 120
Accession countries 54 44 44 31
Russia 74 49 51 61
Other 45 26 27 28
Sea Regions 47 47 47 47
TOTAL 450 393 368 276
5
Black Carbon emissions in Europe (by
sector)Current Legislation Scenario
Thousand tons
Western Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
6
Black Carbon emissions in Europe (by
fuel)Current Legislation Scenario
Thousand tons
Western Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
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Can it get worse and why?

• Attempts to meet GHG reduction targets might lead
  to
• Accelerated biomass use in residential sector,
• More diesel vehicles,
• More gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines.
• But also delayed
• replacement of inefficient stoves,
• introduction of legislation for off-road
  machinery (especially 2-stroke gasoline engines
  and shipping)
• would have a similar impact.

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Are emissions of black carbon controlled?
- 6
- 11
- 25
- 48
Thousand tons
PM2.5 abatement in the same scenarios is between
80 and 90 !
-73
9
Comparison of 2010 CLE and MFR scenarios
Thousand tons
Central and Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Shipping
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Uncertainty (1) Re-assessment of BC emission
factors (Streets et al., Atmospheric
Environment, 35, 4281, 2001)
Previously used
New estimates
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Uncertainty (2) Important contributors

• Apart from emission factors
• Activity data for off-road transport (especially
  2-stroke engines)
• Detailed split of coal and biomass consumption in
  residential sector, i.e., fireplaces, stoves,
  boilers, etc.
• Poor information on how efficient are currently
  applied PM control technologies in removing
  black carbon.

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Summary of preliminary results

• Combustion of diesel fuel (transport) and coal
  and biomass (residential sector) dominate BC
  emissions.
• In 1990 and 2000, Western Europe contributed more
  than 50 of BC in Europe, (excluding shipping).
• European BC emissions are calculated to decline
  until 2010 by 25 (from 2000 levels), only due
  to measures in Western Europe.
• Additional climate measures could lead to higher
  BC emissions.
• Shipping emissions are important and could
  increase further.
• BC does not follow PM emissions, because source
  structures are different.
• Hypothetically, further 73 reduction of BC
  emissions through technical measures feasible.

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Conclusions

• Methodology for assessment of BC emissions in
  Europe developed, but a thorough verification of
  assumptions used in calculations needed.
• In spite of advanced controls for PM, only small
  reduction of BC between 1990 and 2000.
• Emissions from transport and residential
  combustion dominate emissions.
• Large uncertainties of estimates.
• More work needed on the assessment of efficiency
  of current and foreseen control options.