Swedish GAINS activities

1
Swedish GAINS activities Status report March
2009

• John Munthe
• IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd
• Stefan ÅströmMohammed BelhajJenny ArnellMaria
  Lindblad

2
IAM activities at IVL

• GAINS Sweden
• Potential control strategies in the transport
  sector
• Energy saving potential in the housing sector
• Cooperation with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine
• Nordic Low Emission Scenarios

3
GAINS Sweden

• On-going work to to adapt/modify GAINS to
  national users and national needs
• Hardware, software, database access on-going
  development in cooperation with IIASA
• Planned activities- Translation-comparison of
  emission inventories and projections with
  national data- Demand side control strategies in
  the transport sector- Evaluation of national
  scenarios for bioenergy- Evaluation of new
  health and ecosystem impact endpoints
• NIAM Web site running but low level maintenance
  and updating

4
Demand side control strategies in the transport
sector

• Continued evaluation of effects of- increased
  use of biofuels- smaller cars- longer trucks-
  road taxes, fuel taxes, congestion charges
• Potential cooperation with Chalmers Univ of
  Technology using energy system model MARKAL
  (including transport sector).

5
Current activities - Demand side control
options - the Household Service sector

• The household sector is one of the largest energy
  consumers in Europe and Sweden
• Currently, the household sector use 40 of its
  energy to heat buildings
• Reduced demand of energy needed for heating
  appliances will save energy and reduce emissions
  of air pollutants as well as greenhouse gases
• Data collection and evaluation
• GAINS modelling by IIASA

6
Example of results energy demand in housing
sector in Sweden
Reduction potential if the current building
refurbishing rate is doubled
7
Cooperation with Russia, Belarus, Ukraine

• Bilateral cooperation with these countries (and
  IIASA) to support the implementation of air
  pollution policies following CLRTAP standards
• First stage Russia
• Economic activity inventory,
• Emission inventory Leningrad Oblast,
• Implementation in the online GAINS model,

8
SCARP The Swedish Clean Air Research Programme

• Research Programme Funded by Swedish
  Environmental Protection Agency
• Programme Director Peringe Grennfelt
• 4 sub projects- Particles Lead partner Hans
  Christen Hansson, ITM- Health Lead Partner
  Göran Pershagen, KI- Ecosystems Lead Partner
  IVL- Integrated Assessment Modelling Lead
  Partner IVL
• Phase 1 ends in 2009
• New proposal for Phase 2 2010-2012

9
SCARP Ecosystems

• Focussed on nitrogen dynamics and impacts
• Experimental N- additions to forest soils,
  investigation of impact on ground vegetation
  species composition, n-accumulation and
  n-leaching.
• Model development and application (MAGIC,
  ForSAFE, Simple Mass Balance Model).
• Main results from Phase 1-Experimental data for
  process understanding and model
  development-Model applications e.g. ForSAFE Veg
  applied to species composition in nitrogen
  fertilised forest soils new concepts for
  clriticalloads of N SMBM for national upscaling
  of risks for N-leaching

10
SCARP Health impacts

• Main focus to assess health effects related to
  short- and long term exposure to ambient air
  pollution relevant for the Nordic countries.
  Particular emphasis is put on effects associated
  with exposure to particles from sources such as
  road traffic, local wood burning and long range
  transport
• Main results in Phase 1 Transport emissions
  impacts on lung function, focussed on children
  Road dust and wood smoke particles, short term
  impacts, mechanisms Cardio-vascular effects of
  air pollution cohorts, panels, individuals.

11
SCARP Particles

• Main focus is to give significant contributions
  to the understanding of the behaviour of
  particles in the atmosphere and the
  quantification of source-receptor relationships
  through measurements, data evaluation and
  modelling.
• Main results in phase 1- Improved
  understanding of mechanisms for secondary PM
  formation and parameterisation for modelling.
  Implementation in EMEP and MATCH models
  on-going.- Emission inventories for particles.

12
SCARP phase 2 IAM plans

• Integrate results from particle, health and
  ecosystem research new end-points for health
  and ecosystem impacts
• Evaluation of Swedish (and European) scenarios
  for renewable energy
• Evaluation of Swedish (and European) scenarios
  for transport sector including new control
  strategies, taxes, fees etc.

13
Contacts IVL IAM teamJohn Munthe,
john.munthe_at_ivl.seStefan Åström,
stefan.astrom_at_ivl.seMohammed Belhaj,
mohammed.belhaj_at_ivl.seJenny Arnell,
jenny.arnell_at_ivl.seMaria Lindblad,
maria.lindblad_at_ivl.se