Texas Projection Measure

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Texas Projection Measure
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What is TPM?

• TPM is a method for
• projecting future student scores
• -OR-
• determining whether a student is likely to pass
  TAKS assessments, in the next high-stakes grade
  using students current year scale scores

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What is TPM?

• TPM is a method for
• projecting future student scores
• -OR-
• determining whether a student is likely to pass
  TAKS assessments, in the next high-stakes grade
  using students current year scale scores

Grades 5, 8, or 11 with the exception of writing,
which is projected from grade 4 to grade 7
vertical or horizontal depending on the grade and
subject
TPM provides an indication of how student
performance at the end of a school year positions
a student to meet the standard in future grades.
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Where is TPM in this picture?
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2009 TPM

• TPM will provide projections for all TAKS
  English- and Spanish-version tests (except 8th
  grade science)
• TPM projections are made separately for each
  subject area reading/ELA, mathematics, writing,
  science, and social studies.
• The TPM will be used in 2009 for students taking
  the TAKS, TAKS (Accommodated), and linguistically
  accommodated testing (LAT) versions of TAKS.

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2010 TPM

• TEA proposes to
• expand the TPM for use with students taking the
  TAKSM assessments and
• implement a transition table approach to growth
  for students participating in TAKSAlt.

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Projections from and to
From page 9
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TPM Process
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TPM Calculations
What is included? From page 9
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TPM Requirements

• A student must test all subjects needed for the
  calculation in the same language.
• A student must test all subjects in TAKS (the
  regular form, Accommodated form, or
  linguistically accommodated test form)
• When projections for students in grades 38 are
  calculated, the students reading and mathematics
  scale scores used must be the vertical scale
  scores.

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TPM Requirements

• TPM requires that a student (1) have a valid
  scale score in the current-year predictor
  subjects, (2) have a current-year scale score in
  the projection subject, and (3) have a valid
  scale score in the same language (English or
  Spanish) for all scores used as predictors to
  receive a projection.

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No TPM available forstudents who

• take TAKS in two language versions, such as
  taking TAKS reading in Spanish and TAKS
  mathematics in English,
• do not take all tests that are needed for a
  projection,
• take TAKS for one subject and TAKSM for another
  subject, and
• are in grades 5 and 8 with student ID information
  that does not allow their results on the primary
  reading administration to be matched with records
  in the TAKS history file.

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TPM Calculations

• Page 12 and 13

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TPM Constants and Coefficients

• Page 14

http//www.tea.state.tx.us/index3.aspx?id3688men
u_id3793
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TPM Student Identified Groups
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TPM for TAKS-M
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TPM for TAKS-Alt
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Student - Specific Scenario
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State Accountability Standards
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Accountability Calculations

• State Accountability

• Federal Accountability

• Students Met Standard
• Students Tested
• If the Standard is not met
• Apply Required Improvement
• Recalculate Using TPM
• Use Exceptions
• Note Can use any combination
• of the three provisions, but can only use one
• provisions for a single indicator.

• Students Met Standard
• Students Tested
• If the Standard is not met
• Calculate Performance Improvement/Safe Harbor
• Compare Met Standard Rate for 2009 and 2010
  (without TPM)
• A 10 Reduction of Failures and Meeting the
  Other Measure for the Group or showing any
  improvement.
• Recalculate Using TPM

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State AccountabilityProvisions that May
Increase Rating by One Level

• Required Improvement

• Texas Projection Measure

Exceptions

• Can be used to move from Unacceptable to
  Acceptable or Acceptable to Recognized.
• The gain from 2008 must allow the cell to reach
  the standard if the gain were repeated the next
  year.
• There is no floor when moving to Acceptable.
  The rating must be within 5 points to move to
  Recognized.
• Required Improvement is always reviewed first.
  If it cannot increase the cell rating, TPM is
  applied.

• Identifies if student is projected to pass next
  high stakes test at 5th, 8th or 11th grade.
• Only available for students in grades 3-10 who
• Test on TAKS, TAKS-Acc, TAKS-LAT
• Have scored results this year for both Reading
  and Math
• Test in the same language
• TPM will not be available for
• 7th Grade Writing
• 8th Grade Science
• All 11th Grade Subjects
• TPM can increase the campus rating to Acceptable,
  Recognized or Exemplary.
• If applying TPM does not raise the cell rating,
  Exceptions are reviewed.

• Exceptions are the last choice.
• Exceptions cannot be used for the same cell two
  years in a row.
• Exceptions are limited depending on the number of
  cells measured.
• The initial cell result must be within 5 points
  of the standard.

Acceptable/Recognized Acceptable/Recognized Exemplary
5-8 Cells 1 Exception With 10 Cells evaluation, can use 1Exception
9-11 Cells 2 Exceptions With 10 Cells evaluation, can use 1Exception
12-15 Cells 3 Exceptions With 10 Cells evaluation, can use 1Exception
16 Cells 4 Exceptions With 10 Cells evaluation, can use 1Exception
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2009 Accountability Standards

• State Accountability

• Federal Accountability

Subject Acceptable Recognized Exemplary
Reading/ELA, Social Studies, and Writing 70 75 90
Math 55 75 90
Science 50 75 90

• Test Versions
• TAKS All Subjects/Grades
• TAKS-Accommodated Science, Social Studies and
  all 11th Grade subjects
• Also includes
• Dropout Rate 7-8 (2)
• Completion Rate (75)
• On-time Graduates and Continuers/Class of 2008

• Test Versions (Reading/Math only)
• TAKS
• TAKS-Accommodated
• TAKS-M
• TAKS-Alt
• TAKS-LAT (2 years in US)
• Also includes
• Participation (95) and
• Attendance Rate (90) or
• Graduation Rate (70)
• On-time Graduates/Class of 2008

Subject Meets AYP
Reading/ELA 67
Math 58
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Calculating a State Campus Rating
Initial Campus Rating Acceptable
Scores 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM
Subject All Students All Students All Students African American African American African American Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged
Reading/ELA 74 70 84 75 71 83 74 70 83 72 73 82
Math 65 60 78 66 61 77 64 60 76 65 60 76
Science 70 69 75 71 70 74 70 68 73 68 66 75
Social Studies 93 90 98 94 90 95 93 89 98 92 89 97
Final Campus Rating Recognized
Scores 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM
Subject All Students All Students All Students African American African American African American Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged
Reading/ELA 74 70 84 75 71 83 74 70 83 72 73 82
Math 65 60 78 66 61 77 64 60 76 65 60 76
Science 70 69 75 71 70 74 70 68 73 68 66 75
Social Studies 93 90 98 94 90 95 93 89 98 92 89 97
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Calculating a State Campus Rating
Campus A Initial______ Final______ Scores
2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM
Subject All Students All Students All Students African American African American African American Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged
Reading/ELA 81 78 84 81 76 85 80 73 85 81 79 84
Math 72 70 78 72 68 77 71 76 74 73 72 76
Science 75 69 75 69 76 74 75 76 75 72 66 72
Social Studies 89 90 98 90 87 93 92 92 98 91 85 95
Campus B Initial______ Final______ Scores
2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM
Subject All Students All Students All Students African American African American African American Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged
Reading/ELA 70 65 86 69 64 84 68 66 88 70 67 79
Math 54 50 58 54 58 61 52 57 54 52 53 59
Science 46 41 49 45 44 50 40 30 48 43 45 51
Social Studies 75 87 98 76 88 95 74 89 98 78 86 97
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Calculating a State Campus Rating
Campus C Initial______ Final______ Scores
2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM
Subject All Students All Students All Students African American African American African American Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged
Reading/ELA 85 72 93 90 72 94 86 74 92 85 73 91
Math 78 60 90 80 61 91 76 60 90 79 60 92
Science 88 69 91 86 70 86 90 68 90 85 69 93
Writing 93 90 98 94 90 95 93 89 98 92 89 97
SAISD Research Evaluation
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(No Transcript)
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TPM Summary Statements

• Table Activity
• Create a T chart which outlines the key points
  and cautions related to TPM.

Key Points Cautions