Climate Change in Asia:

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Trial lecture
Climate Change in Asia current changes and
expected changes in our century
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Outline

• Climate change on the global scale
• The 4th assessment report of IPCC (2 Feburary
  2007)
• Climate change in Asia
• Some facts about Asia
• -- Physical aspects climate zones and topography
• -- Manmade aspects population, economy, land use
  etc.
• The climate change issues in Asia (region to
  region)
• Current climate changes
• -- Observations
• -- Extreme events
• Expected climate changes
• -- Expected changes
• -- Extreme events

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Key conclusions in the 4th assessment report of
IPCC

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
  is now evident from observations of increases in
  global average air and ocean temperatures,
  widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
  global mean sea level
• It is 'very high confidence' that increases in
  man-made greenhouse gas emissions have caused
  most of the rise in globally averaged
  temperatures since the middle of the 20th
  century. It is 'extremely unlikely' that this
  warming was due to natural climate variability
  alone.
• Contributions to radiative forcing
• Human 1.6 0.6 to 2.4 W m-2
• Natural 0.12 0.06 to 0.30 W m-2

Very high confidence at least a 9 out of 10
chance of being correct
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Key conclusions in the 4th assessment report of
IPCC

• During the last 100 years the Earth has warmed by
  0.76 C on average, and the rate of warming has
  further increased.
• Rates of observed sea level rise almost doubled
  from 18 centimetres per century in 19612003 to
  31 cm per century in 19932003.
• Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since
• the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
  observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
  concentrations.

Very likely assesses likelihoodgt90
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Key conclusions in the 4th assessment report of
IPCC

• Extreme weather events have increased and
  regional climate patterns are changing. Heat
  waves and other weather extremes, as well as
  changes in atmospheric circulation patterns,
  storm tracks and precipitation, can now traced
  back to climate change caused by human activities
  
• Scientists have improved their ability to predict
  future climate change. Confidence in regional
  climate change projections has increased due to
  better models and more powerful computers.

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Asia has warmed by about 1 C over the past 100
years, faster than the global average. In the
Arctic it could be on average 6 C and possibly
as much as 8 C  warmer by the end of this
century than at the end of the 20th.
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Asia -- boundary and topography
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Climate change issues in Asia
Temperature increasing Sea level rising Melting
of permafrost Melting of Mountain
Glaciers Monsoon (strength , locations,
transported water vapour) Precipatation Droughts F
loodings Heat waves/unusually warm
weather Typhoon Spreading disease
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Important facts Population

• By 2005
• Over 60 world population
• (more than 3.9 Billion)
• China (1,316 Million)
• India (1.123 Million)
• Indonesia (227 Million)
• Paskitan (165 Million)
• Bangladesh (149 Million)
• Japan (127 Million

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Important facts Urbanization
Changing of life style, land use etc. Leading to
more emissions
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Important facts rapid economic development and
energy comsumption
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Anthropogenic emissions An example current and
projected CO2 emissions
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Current changes in AsiaTemperature
Observation indicate fast increased trend in last
decades China (Rangwala et al., 2006, JRL)
1950-2000 0.19 ºC /decade 1975-2000 0.38 ºC
/decade India 1901-2003 0.05 ºC /decade
1971-2003 0.22 ºC /decade Tibet and
vicinity (Oku et al., 2006, J.
Clim.) 1996-20002 0.12 ºC /decade
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Current changes in Asiatrends of Temperature
extremes
Trends per decade for the regional indices (cold
day/night warm day/night) of Temperature
Klein Tank et al., JGR, 2006.
Similar resulst are found in southeast Asia
(Manton et at., Ini. J. Climatol., 2001)
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Current changes in AsiaMelting of permafrost

• Permafrost is a large carbon reservoir, and it
  has already begun to thaw, in response to the
  strong climate warming in this region.
  (Romanovsky et al., Tohoku Geophys J., 2001).
• The methane released from the thawing permafrost
  along Siberian thaw lakes were increased by 58
  between 1974 and 2000, because of the warming.
  (Walter et al., Science, 2006)

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Current changes in AsiaMelting of mountain
glaciers

• Shrinkage of glaciers in the Himalayas
• Nepals side
• glacier are shrinking at a rate of 60 meters per
  decades
• Tibetan side
• 50 of the glaciers were retreating during the
  period of 1950-1980--rose to 90 in the 1980s,
  and to 95 in to 95 in 1990s.
• (Nature, 2005)
• Problems mountain lakes, flood, drought, land
  erosion, changes in the strength of monsoon

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Monsoons dominating phenomenon over Asia
Global warming Weakening the monsoon and
tropical large-scale circulation Increasing
the moister convergence ENSO Snow-cover
retreats Aerosols
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Indian Monsoon and precipitataion

• Monsoon
• Weakened monsoon circulations and tropical
  large-scale circulation
• Enhanced moisture convergence in a warmer
  atmosphere
• Northward shift in the lower tropospheric monsoon
  circulation
• Precipitation
• Increased precipitation in most of the year
  except the winter
• Increased trend for extreme events, such as heavy
  rain, and typhoon

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Trend and extreme rain events in India

• The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a
  significant trend in India
• Significant rising trends in the frequency and
  the magnitude of rain extreme events
• Significant decreasing trend in the frenquency of
  moderate events
• 1951- 2000
• Goswami et al., 2006, Science

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East Asia summer monsoon and precipitation

• Monsoon
• Weakened East Asian summer monsoon
• The upperlevel westerly jet stream over East Asia
  shifts southward
• Increased moisture convergence over the Yangtze
  River valley, the East China Sea, Western Japan,
  and over the ocean to the south of the Japan
• Intensification of a subtropical high and extends
  westwards
• Precipitation
• An increase in summertime precipitation in most
  of East Asia
• A delay in early summer rain withdrawal over the
  region extending from Taiwan, Ryukyu Islands to
  the south of Japan
• A tendency toward increased droughts in northern
  China and flood in Yangtze River Valley.
• Increased trend for extreme events, such as heavy
  rain, and typhoon

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Trend and extreme rain events in China
From 1960-2000 Slightly increase of
precipitation in China by 2 Significant of
decreased frequency of precipitation by
10. Increased frequency of heavy precipitation
events and fewer light precipitation
events increased droughts in northern China and
flood in southern China
Liu et al., JGR, 2005
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Extreme events
The impacts of climate change are felt most
strongly through changes in the extreme
events. Typhoons, floods, droughts, heat waves
are very often observed extremes in Asia
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Extreme eventsGrowing Typhoon influence on east
Asia

• a June-Oct. mean frenquency of tropical cyclone
  (per year)
• b. Frenquency of tropical cyclone occurrence

Wu et al., GRL, 2005
Two prevailing typhoon tracks have shifted
westward significantly. Therefore, the
subtropical East Asia has experienced increasing
typhoon influence. Observation show a decreased
frenquency of occurance, but increased intensity.
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Expected change in the future (the 4th
assessment report of IPCC)

• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2C
  per decade is projected for a range of SRES
  emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of
  all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept
  constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming
  of about 0.1C per decade would be expected.
• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above
  current rates would cause further warming and
  induce many changes in the global climate system
  during the 21st century that would very likely be
  larger than those observed during the 20th
  century.
• The temperature over land and at high northern
  latitudes will be higher than the global average.

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Projected temperature in 21th century (the 4th
assessment report of IPCC)
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Expected changes in AsiaTemperature
Projected temperature changes for 2079-98,
relative to 1979-98 (Greene et al., 2005,
J.Climate) Tebaldi et al., 2005 May, 2004
Giorgi and Mearns Douville et al., 2000 Gao et
al., 2002 2003 McGregor et al., 2001 etc..
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Expected changes in AsiaMonsoon and precipitation

• Monsoon (Continue with the similar tendency as
  20th century)
• Weakened Monsoon flows and the tropical
  large-scale circulation
• Enhanced moisture convergence
• Northward expansion of subtropical high pressure
• Delayed withdrawal of Meiyu-baiu rain band
• Resulting precipitation
• the increased annual precipitation in most of
  Asia (about 10)
• Increase winter precipitation in Northern Asia,
  Tibetan Plateau, as well as Central, Southeast,
  and East Asia.
• Increase summer precipitation in North, South,
  Southeast and East Asia,
• but decrease in Central Asia.

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Expected changes in AsiaPrecipitation
Relative change in precipitataion (in precent)
for the period 2080-2099, relative to 1980-1999.
Yukimoto et al., J. Meteor. Soc.
Japan, 2006
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Expected changes in AsiaChnages in precipitation
Time series of simulated JJA precipitation in
Asian (millmeters/day). Ueda et al., GRL,
2006 Results from the monsoon precipitation
computed by eight GCMs for future climate changes
in Asia
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Increasing risk of extratropical floods
The frenquency of great floods increased
substantially during the 20th century and the
trend will continue in the future. (Simulation
with changing greenhouse gases and sulfhates)

• (Milly et al. Nature, 2002)

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What is for the future?

• The Kyoto protocol is far from enough and it is
  dead.
• Maybe the remain hope is the emission cuts by
  regional initiatives.