Cambio Climtico y eventos extremos: un enfoque dinmico

1
Cambio Climático y eventos extremos un enfoque
dinámico
Grupo de Física del Clima E.Sánchez Gómez, A.
Ruiz de Elvira, W. Cabos Narváez, F.J. Alvarez
García y M.J. Ortiz Beviá Universidad de Alcalá
2
Scheme of the talk
General view Current researching activities of
the group -Climatic Variability -Empirical
Predictability -Climatic Change
We focus on
Climate Change and climate extreme events
3
Main topics of GFSC
Climate variability

• Development of a regional version of a GCM
  (OPYC) for the Atlantic Ocean.
• Analysis of the interannual variability of the
  Tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic and
  Mediterranean Sea.
• Scale interactions and physical mechanisms of the
  interannual variability analysis of a coupled
  ocean-atmosphere GCM simulations with statistical
  tools

4
Main topics of GFSC
Empirical Predictability

• Real retroactive empirical forecasts issued for
  the Tropical Oceans (Nino3 index, GG index, NTA
  index).
• Empirical forecast of the North Atlantic air
  temperature anomalies (also Iberian Peninsula)
  and of the NAO index.

5
Empirical predictability in the North Atlantic
The empirical forecasts are able to detect
climatic changes we observe an evident decrease
of predictability in the 80s, caused by
significant changes occurred at the end of the
70s NAO index and the GSA (SanchezGomez et al.
2001).
First EOF of sea ice field in the North Atlantic
(66)
6
Main Topics of GFSC
Climatic Change

• Colaboration with the Departamento de Puertos
  del Estado (WASA group). Detection the swell
  changes in the north coast of Spain, with he help
  of the swell simulations from the WAM model.
• Characterization of climatic changes in the
  Spain (Meseta Sur).
• Climate extreme events! (indices proposed
  by WMO-CCI/CLIVAR)

7
Climate change and extreme climate events
Weather regimes approach
1.
- Four classical weather regimes in the North
Atlantic basin in winter and in summer (Vautard
1990). - They have been identified by a cluster
technique (k-means, Michelangeli et al. 1991)
from 500 mb field (ERA40).
2.
We can find the links between the weather regimes
and some extreme climate events over a region
(Spain).
3.
The simulations from ARPEGE-Climat model (control
and scenario) allow us for determining the
possible changes in the percentage of occurrence
of a weather regime. Then we can somehow
predict the changes in frequency of an extreme
climate event.
8
Climate change and extreme climate events
Weather regimes in ERA40 (winter)
9
Climate change and extreme climate events
Weather regimes in ERA40 (summer)
10
Climate change and extreme climate events
Extreme climate events
- Extreme events are identified by a threshold
value (5, 95 quantiles). - Variables Tmax,
Tmin, Precipitation, Storm Tracks
Change of probability C (Px/5)-1) 100
Px10 C100 Px15 C200 Px0 C-100 !!
11
Climate change and extreme climate events
Extreme climate events
Some applications already carried out in France
(SQR data)
Winter precipitation
Winter Tmin
Summer Tmax
Zonal
Blocking
Blocking
SánchezGómez E., Gosetlogon G de, L. Terray and
A. Joly (2005) Weather regimes links with
Temperature and precipitation extremes, Climate
Dynamics, (submitted).
Next 53 meteorological stations Tmin, Tmax and
precipitation in Spain (Meseta Sur) provided by
the INM.
12
Climate change and extreme climate events
Extreme climate events Storms
Atlantic Ridge
Greenland Anticyclone
Blocking
Zonal
(With the help of storm tracking carried out by
A. Joly and F. Ayrault)
13
Climate change and extreme climate events
Weather regimes in ARPEGE-Climat
Stretched grid, Variable Resolution 60 Km over
France and Spain 600 Km over the Southern
Pacific (Déqué et al. 1998)
Data -3 simulations of control (1960-1999) -3
simulations of scenario A2 from IPCC (2070-2099)
14
Climate change and extreme climate events
Weather regimes in ARPEGE-Climat (winter)
15
Climate change and extreme climate events
Weather regimes in ARPEGE-Climat (winter)
16
Climate change and extreme climate events
Weather regimes in ARPEGE-Climat (summer)
17
Climate change and extreme climate events
Weather regimes in ARPEGE-Climat (summer)
18
Conclusions Main topics of GFSC Climatic
Variability (Atlantic Ocean, ENSO)
Empirical Predictability Climatic Change