Data Driven Safety

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Data Driven Safety
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X-15 Simulator
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X-15 Simulator Use

• Time honored criteria to predict aircraft
  behavior failed to uncover serious threats
• Pilot controlled flight-simulation device
  developed to aid research
• Researchers could now simulate and analyze
  hazardous conditions at a lower risk
• Unknown hazards of controlling X-15 flight
  explored before flight
• 10 hours simulation for 1 hour of flight
• The application of X-15 simulation techniques to
  other aerospace applications was an unforeseen
  data-information-knowledge safety benefit of that
  program

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Flight Data Recorders
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Commercial Aviation Safety Analysis Of Data

• Evolved from research programs in the 1950s
• Metal strip scribed with basic parameters
• Heading / Time / Airspeed / Altitude
• In 1958 the Civil Aeronautics Administration
  mandated use in commercial aircraft
• By 1980s second generation digital recorders
  were mandated which captured 11 parameters for up
  to 25 hours of recording time
• Pitch / Roll / Vert Long Accels / Thrust /
  Controls / Radio transmission

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The 1960s Marked the Beginning of Significant
Improvements in Aviation Safety
05/16/2002 FT-004Wc
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Data Collection Analysis

• Digital Flight Data Recorders
• DFDR (Black Box)
• Modern equipment has several hundred recorded
  discrete parameters
• Post accident investigations able to more
  accurately identify cause
• Challenged to maintain hazard identification
  focus versus establishing blame
• Aviation safety recorded remarkably improved

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Flight Operations Quality Assurance

• Systematic analysis of routine data
• Thousands of hours of recorded data reduced to
  distribution graphs
• Safety departments can focus on most critical
  information that exceeds some predetermined value
  

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Digital Flight Data Recorder
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Routine Download and AnalysisData Information
- Knowledge

• European community has employed this for over 30
  years
• U.S. just now implementing
• Litigious society turns safety information into a
  liability
• Non-punitive policy is imperative to success
• Objective is to identify trends not individuals
• Cooperative efforts of 3 main parties necessary
• Industry / Company
• Regulators
• Labor
• Positive results already realized

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Computer Technology Enhances Safety

• Digital Flight Data Acquisition Units DFDAU
• Thousands of information sources can report to a
  central recording unit
• Quick Access Recorders QAR
• Ease of access to data stream
• Purpose of Program is to
• Detect latent patterns of behavior in human
  performance
• Weaknesses in the aviation system supporting
  infrastructure
• Anomalies in aircraft performance

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New Focus on the Hazard

• Thousands of hours of data reduced to
  distribution charts (Information)
• Adverse systemic trends now addressed as root
  cause versus human failings (Knowledge)
• Leading Indicators in trend data are point of
  focus versus accident investigation (Data Mining)
• Safety departments can identify trends and lead
  decision makers to address highest threat
  (Proactive vs. Reactive)

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Worldwide and U. S. Airline FatalitiesClassified
by Accident Type 1992 through 2001
Total Worldwide Fatalities - 6,926
Worldwide U. S. Operators CFIT and Loss of
Control Fatalities Worldwide 4,523 or
65
1382 CA
Number of Fatalities
989 CC
In- flight fire
CFIT
Loss of control in flight
Mid- air collision
Fuel tank explosion
Takeoff config.
Wind- shear
Fuel exhaus- tion
Landing
Un- known
Ice/ snow
Turbu- lence
Runway Incursion
RTO
Misc. fatality
WW number of fatal accidents (112 total) U.S.
Operators (22 total)
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31
2
2
2
3
2
2
8
17
8
3
2
1
2
1
7
1
0
1
1
1
1
4
3
0
1
1
0
0
Note

• Accidents involving multiple, non-onboard
  fatalities are included.
• Accidents involving single, non-onboard
  fatalities are excluded.
• Western-built commercial transports gt 60,000 lbs.
• Hijack and Sabotage events are excluded

CFIT Controlled Flight Into Terrain RTO
Refused Takeoff Loss of Control CA Control
Available CC Control Compromised
6/10/02 AT-002
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Data Driven Safety Summary

• Safety departments generally seen by accountants
  as not contributing to profitability
• Safety as a Cost Center
• Powerful new tools allow safety departments to
  statistically predict where the next high cost
  accident will happen
• Limited resources are focused on the most
  significant hazards
• Reductions in maintenance, operating, and
  training costs realized
• Safety as a Profit Center