?????????????????????????? ???? 1929 ?????????????? ??? Keynes

1
???????????????????????????????????????????????

• ????? ?????????
• 29 ?????? 2551
• ?????? ???? ???????

2
?????????????????????????? ???? 1929
?????????????? ??? Keynes

• The Wealth of Nations ??? Adam Smith ???? 1776
  ??????????? Classics ????????????????????????????
  ???? ????????? Microeconomics supply-demand
  ?????????????????
• 1900s ????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????
• ????????????????????????????????????????? ????
  ???? ???????????????????????????????? 1929
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????30 ??
• The General Theory of Employment, Interest and
  Money ??? John Maynard Keynes ????1936
  ?????????Macroeconomics
• ????????????????????? ????????????????????????????
  ????????????????? ????????????????????????
• ??????? Breton Woods Institutions ???? IMF ???
  World Bank ???????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????? ????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????? ???? 1945

3
New Theories

• Supply creates Demand ???? 1936
• Demand Management ??? Inflation ????????????? 2
• Supply side economics ???? Reagan ?? 1980s
• Neo Classics vs Neo Keynesian
• Development Economics and Productivity
• Asian Miracle in 1990s and Paul Krugman
• that the growth of economies in East Asia was not
  the result of new and original economic models,
  but rather increased capital and labor inputs,
  which did not result in an increase in total
  factor productivity

4
????????????????

• ???????????????????????????????????????? Flows
• Decreasing rate of return and the traditional
  agriculture and industrial goods
• Budget constraints and marginal utilities
• ???????????? ?????? ??????????????????????????????
  ????????????????
• Financial risk and financial innovation
• ???????????????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????? 1900
  ?????????????????????
• ???????????????? ??? ?????????????????????????
  (Contagion)
• ?????????????????????????? ???? 2008 ???
  ?????????????? ????

5
Complexity of Wealth management

• Investment behavior of funds managers
• Liquidity in Global Financial system
• Hedge Funds and leverage
• Inadequate Government regulations
• Free market and tax heavens

6
New crisis 1990-2008

• Financial Wealth, hedge Fund, International
  capital flows and efficient market mechanism
• Bubble economy and asset inflation
• Asset price bubble burst Japan (1989),
  Asia(1997/8), USAUK(2007/8)
• IMF rescue package, US 700 billion
• Modern technology perfect information flows
• Crisis of confidence among investors
• Valuation of asset prices future value/present
  value /Downward spiral adjustment of asset price
• ???????????????????????????? ?????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????
• Too big to fail AIG, Bank of America, etc.

7
????? ????????? Asset valuation(A new general
equilibrium theory)

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???
• Areas of psychology and public administration
• Economy of scale and increasing rate of return
  for service sector ???????????????????????????????
  ?????
• Stocks ??? equilibrium financial and real asset
  prices
• Global policy coordination Plaza Agreement in
  1985 ??????????????????????????????????????
• ??????????? ????????????????? ????????????????????
  ????? ?????????????????????????????????????

8
???????????

• ???????? ?????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????? ???? 1.3
  ????????????????????
• ????????????????? investment banking
• ??????????????? ?????????????????????? (Rating
  Agency) ???? Moodys ??? Standard and Poor
• ?????????????????????????????????? ???? AMBAC ???
  MBIA
• ?????????????? AIG ??? ??????? ?????????
  (derivatives) ??? ????????????????????????????????
  (credit swap swap)

9
???????????????????????????????????????????????

• ???????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????? ???????????????????
  (nationalization)
• ????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????

10
?????????????????????????????????????????

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????? ??????????????????????????????
  ????????? Risk Management Committee ??? Basel2
  ??????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????? ??????????????????????????
  (Deposit taking institutions)
• ????????????????????????????????????????? Macro
  ???????????????????????????? ???? Macro Risk
  Management
• ???????????????????????????? (Mark to Market) ???
  multiplier effect ??? mark to market
• ???????????????? Transparency
• ???????????????????? off balance sheet ?????

11
????????????????????????????????????????????

• ?????????????? ???????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????? ???????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????? ??????????????? ????? herd
  instinct ???internet/free flows of information
  ????????????????????????? ???????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????????????????
  Anti cyclical policy
• ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????????

12
Thailand Back to basics

• Supply side economics Total Factor Productivity
• Land
• Capital
• Labor Education
• ??????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????
• ???????????????????? process
  improvement
• invention vs Innovation
• Good Governance

13
Pisit_at_Leeahtam.com

• 29 October 2008