Title: INTEGRATING THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT TO BUILD CAPACITY FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
1INTEGRATING THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT TO BUILD
CAPACITY FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
Dr. Walter Hays Global Alliance For Disaster
Reduction
2LEST WE FORGET OUR PAST AND SIMILAR EVENTS
RECUR AND FIND US UNPREPARED
3MAIN IDEA
- A lot of the UNCERTAINTY in future emergency
response and recovery phases will be eliminated
if we can make - The VIRTUAL REALITY derived from EARTHQUAKE
SCENARIOS - Look like REALITY.
4YOUR COMMUNITY
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN
UP AFTERSHOCKS
5EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE MADE
EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT
6DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES
- STRATEGY
- PREPARATION
- PROTECTION
- DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS
- EMERGENCY RESPONSE
- RECOVERY
- RECONSTRUCTION
KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY BASES
7California Catastrophic Disaster Planning
Scenario
- Major impact to large metropolitan areas
- Consequences would eclipse Katrina
- Large area of impact - 155,959 Sq. Miles
- Highly populated areas - 36M
- Significant earthquake risk throughout State
7
8California Catastrophic Disaster Planning
Scenario
- Tsunami risk
- Mass Evacuation
- Significant infrastructure impacts
- Response problems due to roadway
collapse/blockage - Estimated loss -- gt 400B
8
9SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA
10SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES FOR CALIFORNIA
- ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE
READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE BIG ONES RECUR - Source US Geological Survey
11ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO
RISK
12HAYWARD FAULT ZONE
13A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
- Because of its location in the densely populated
Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on
the Hayward fault is likely to be one of the
nation's biggest natural disasters. -
14A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
- A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects
5 million people, and damages homes, schools,
senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay
bridge, and UC Berkeley.
15HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
16HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
- A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will
cause an estimated 210 billion dollars in
damage. - The region's transportation infrastructure and
water delivery systems will take a major hit.
17SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA
18QUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO
- The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify
the physical, social and economic consequences of
a major earthquake in southern California , and
in so doing, enable end users to identify what
they can change nowbefore the earthquakein
order to avoid catastrophic impacts after the
inevitable earthquake occurs.
19GROUND SHAKING 60 SECONDS AFTER FAULT RUPTURE
20 THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE
- The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes
about 1800 deaths and 213 billion of economic
losses.
21 THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE
- These numbers are as low as they are because of
aggressive retrofitting programs that have
increased the seismic resistance of buildings,
highways and lifelines, and added economic
resiliency.
22THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE
- The estimates of about 1800 deaths and 213
billion of economic losses are as large as they
are because much more retrofitting and
rehabilitation are still needed.
23NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SCENARIOJUNE 2010 AND
MARCH 2008
- ASSUMPTIONS M7.7
- 200 AM
- http//mae.cee.illinois.edu/news/reportusa2.html
24EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
- A COMPREHENSIVE INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FROM
GEOLOGY, GEOPHYSICS, SEISMOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHY,
ARCHITECTURE, CIVIL ENGINEERING, AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT IN A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL LIKE
HAZUS-MH
25AN EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO FOR THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC
ZONE
- Based on Increased Scientific and Engineering
Knowledge and Regional Demographic Changes, and
- A continuing dialog sampled in a Regional
Workshop, March 17-19, 2008 - Mid-America Earthquake Center, Report 08-02
26NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
27NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
28NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
- The New Madrid Seismic Zone covers parts of eight
states Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Illinois,
Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee. - It was the source of four great earthquakes (M8.0
to 8.8) in 1811-1812.
29NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
30EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
31INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL
32NMSZ ONE OF WORLDS LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS
33 DAMAGE ZONE IS MUCH LARGER IN EASTERN USA THAN
IN CALIF.
34New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk
- Consequences eclipse Katrina
- impact area - 126,575 Sq Miles
- 44M people in eight-State region
- Multiple jurisdictions and Governors
St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
34
35New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk
- Significant loss of infrastructure
- Response problems hindered by long aftershock
sequence - Estimated loss -- 300B
- Severe weather evacuation issues
St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
35
36New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk
- Nearly 86,000 total casualties
- 3,500 fatalities
- Estimated loss -- 300B
St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
36
37 38ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO
- Damage and loss estimates and the planning
assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of
a magnitude 7.7 earthquake at 200 am.
39ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO
- The epicenter is assumed to be located
approximately 33 miles North North-West of
Memphis, TN.
40SCENARIO IMPACTS
- The geography of the multi-state area will
change dramatically as a consequence of
liquefaction and landslides. -
41SCENARIO IMPACTS
- The most notable changes will occur in and around
the Mississippi River and other rivers within
the Mississippi River drainage basin.
42SCENARIO IMPACTS
- 715,000 buildings will sustain heavy damage , and
100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong
ground shaking. -
43SCENARIO IMPACTS
- Damage will occur over a wide area, especially
in locations underlain by soft soil. - Multiple fires will occur throughout the area.
44SCENARIO IMPACTS
- Utilities will be interrupted, leaving 2.5
MILLION without power, and water, gas, and waste
disposal outages will occur over a wide area.
45SOCIETAL IMPACTS
- Critical infrastructure (power plants, dams)
throughout the region will be seriously
compromised
46SCENARIO IMPACTS
- Essential infrastructure (schools, universities,
hospitals) throughout the region will be
seriously compromised
47SCENARIO IMPACTS
- Transportation systems (highways, bridges,
airports, river traffic) throughout the region
will be seriously compromised
48SCENARIO IMPACTS
- Communications throughout the region will be
seriously compromised
49SCENARIO IMPACTS TN
- The State of Tennessee incurs the highest level
of damage and social impacts. - Over 250,000 buildings are moderately or severely
damaged.
50SCENARIO IMPACTS TN
- Over 260,000 people are displaced and over 80,000
casualties (injuries and fatalities) are
expected.
51SCENARIO IMPACTS TN
- Total direct economic losses surpass 56 billion.
52SCENARIO IMPACTS MO
- Well over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving
more than 120,000 people displaced. - Over 15,000 casualties.
53SCENARIO IMPACTS MO
- Total direct economic losses in Missouri reach
nearly 40 billion.
54SCENARIO IMPACTS TN
- Total direct economic losses surpass 56 billion.
55SCENARIO IMPACTS MO
- Well over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving
more than 120,000 people displaced. - Over 15,000 casualties.
56SCENARIO IMPACTS MO
- Total direct economic losses in Missouri reach
nearly 40 billion.