INTEGRATING THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT TO BUILD CAPACITY FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

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INTEGRATING THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT TO BUILD
CAPACITY FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
Dr. Walter Hays Global Alliance For Disaster
Reduction
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LEST WE FORGET OUR PAST AND SIMILAR EVENTS
RECUR AND FIND US UNPREPARED
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MAIN IDEA

• A lot of the UNCERTAINTY in future emergency
  response and recovery phases will be eliminated
  if we can make
• The VIRTUAL REALITY derived from EARTHQUAKE
  SCENARIOS
• Look like REALITY.

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YOUR COMMUNITY
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN
UP AFTERSHOCKS
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EVERY ELEMENT IN A COMMUNITY CAN BE MADE
EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT
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DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES

• STRATEGY
• PREPARATION
• PROTECTION
• DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE
• RECOVERY
• RECONSTRUCTION

KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY BASES
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California Catastrophic Disaster Planning
Scenario

• Major impact to large metropolitan areas
• Consequences would eclipse Katrina
• Large area of impact - 155,959 Sq. Miles
• Highly populated areas - 36M
• Significant earthquake risk throughout State

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California Catastrophic Disaster Planning
Scenario

• Tsunami risk
• Mass Evacuation
• Significant infrastructure impacts
• Response problems due to roadway
  collapse/blockage
• Estimated loss -- gt 400B

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SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA
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SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES FOR CALIFORNIA

• ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE
  READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE BIG ONES RECUR
• Source US Geological Survey

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ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO
RISK
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HAYWARD FAULT ZONE
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A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO

• Because of its location in the densely populated
  Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on
  the Hayward fault is likely to be one of the
  nation's biggest natural disasters.

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A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO

• A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects
  5 million people, and damages homes, schools,
  senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay
  bridge, and UC Berkeley.

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HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
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HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

• A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will
  cause an estimated 210 billion dollars in
  damage.
• The region's transportation infrastructure and
  water delivery systems will take a major hit.

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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA
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QUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO

• The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify
  the physical, social and economic consequences of
  a major earthquake in southern California , and
  in so doing, enable end users to identify what
  they can change nowbefore the earthquakein
  order to avoid catastrophic impacts after the
  inevitable earthquake occurs.

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GROUND SHAKING 60 SECONDS AFTER FAULT RUPTURE
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THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE

• The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes
  about 1800 deaths and 213 billion of economic
  losses.

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THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE

• These numbers are as low as they are because of
  aggressive retrofitting programs that have
  increased the seismic resistance of buildings,
  highways and lifelines, and added economic
  resiliency.

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THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKE

• The estimates of about 1800 deaths and 213
  billion of economic losses are as large as they
  are because much more retrofitting and
  rehabilitation are still needed.

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NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SCENARIOJUNE 2010 AND
MARCH 2008

• ASSUMPTIONS M7.7
• 200 AM
• http//mae.cee.illinois.edu/news/reportusa2.html

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EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

• A COMPREHENSIVE INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FROM
  GEOLOGY, GEOPHYSICS, SEISMOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHY,
  ARCHITECTURE, CIVIL ENGINEERING, AND EMERGENCY
  MANAGEMENT IN A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL LIKE
  HAZUS-MH

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AN EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO FOR THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC
ZONE

• Based on Increased Scientific and Engineering
  Knowledge and Regional Demographic Changes, and
  
• A continuing dialog sampled in a Regional
  Workshop, March 17-19, 2008
• Mid-America Earthquake Center, Report 08-02

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NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
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NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
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NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

• The New Madrid Seismic Zone covers parts of eight
  states Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Illinois,
  Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
• It was the source of four great earthquakes (M8.0
  to 8.8) in 1811-1812.

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NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
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EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
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INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL
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NMSZ ONE OF WORLDS LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS
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DAMAGE ZONE IS MUCH LARGER IN EASTERN USA THAN
IN CALIF.
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New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk

• Consequences eclipse Katrina
• impact area - 126,575 Sq Miles
• 44M people in eight-State region
• Multiple jurisdictions and Governors

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
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New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk

• Significant loss of infrastructure
• Response problems hindered by long aftershock
  sequence
• Estimated loss -- 300B
• Severe weather evacuation issues

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
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New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk

• Nearly 86,000 total casualties
• 3,500 fatalities
• Estimated loss -- 300B

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
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• MEMPHIS, TN AT RISK

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ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO

• Damage and loss estimates and the planning
  assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of
  a magnitude 7.7 earthquake at 200 am.

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ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO

• The epicenter is assumed to be located
  approximately 33 miles North North-West of
  Memphis, TN.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• The geography of the multi-state area will
  change dramatically as a consequence of
  liquefaction and landslides.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• The most notable changes will occur in and around
  the Mississippi River and other rivers within
  the Mississippi River drainage basin.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• 715,000 buildings will sustain heavy damage , and
  100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong
  ground shaking.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• Damage will occur over a wide area, especially
  in locations underlain by soft soil.
• Multiple fires will occur throughout the area.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• Utilities will be interrupted, leaving 2.5
  MILLION without power, and water, gas, and waste
  disposal outages will occur over a wide area.

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SOCIETAL IMPACTS

• Critical infrastructure (power plants, dams)
  throughout the region will be seriously
  compromised

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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• Essential infrastructure (schools, universities,
  hospitals) throughout the region will be
  seriously compromised

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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• Transportation systems (highways, bridges,
  airports, river traffic) throughout the region
  will be seriously compromised

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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• Communications throughout the region will be
  seriously compromised

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SCENARIO IMPACTS TN

• The State of Tennessee incurs the highest level
  of damage and social impacts.
• Over 250,000 buildings are moderately or severely
  damaged.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS TN

• Over 260,000 people are displaced and over 80,000
  casualties (injuries and fatalities) are
  expected.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS TN

• Total direct economic losses surpass 56 billion.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS MO

• Well over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving
  more than 120,000 people displaced.
• Over 15,000 casualties.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS MO

• Total direct economic losses in Missouri reach
  nearly 40 billion.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS TN

• Total direct economic losses surpass 56 billion.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS MO

• Well over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving
  more than 120,000 people displaced.
• Over 15,000 casualties.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS MO

• Total direct economic losses in Missouri reach
  nearly 40 billion.