Synopsis of presentation

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Impact of Climate Change on Grenadas Coastal
Zones
Synopsis of presentation
Justification for conducting Vulnerability
Assessment on Grenadas Coastal Zones
Background information on Grenada, Carriacou and
Petite Martinique
Methodology used
Problems and the way forward
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Justification for conducting Vulnerability
Assessment on Grenadas Coastal Zones

• The small size of the island and affinity to
  and dependence of the inhabitants on the sea.

• Growing coastal population and infrastructural
  development

• The high cost associated with the construction
  of new coastal protection structures

• To aid policy formulation and assist in
  structuring the coastal physical development of
  the island to ameliorate SLR repercussions

• To estimate and determine the biophysical
  impact of SLR on socio-economic sectors and human
  population

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View of Pink Gin Beach showing a section of La
Source Hotel.
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SHELL gas plant, Grand Mal Bay, located in close
proximity to beach
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Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment was
conducted under component 9 of the regional
Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate
Change Project (CPACC). Results and findings were
included in the first National Communication.
Main objective of CPACC is to support Caribbean
countries in preparing to cope with the adverse
impacts of climate change particularly sea level
rise, in coastal and marine areas through
vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning
and capacity building linked to adaptation
planning

• Strengthen the regional capability for
  monitoring and analyzing climate and sea level
  dynamics and trends, seeking to determine the
  immediate and potential impacts of global climate
  change.
• Identify areas particularly vulnerable to the
  adverse effects of climate change and sea level
  rise.
• Develop an integrated management and planning
  framework for cost effective response and
  adaptation to the impacts of climate change on
  coastal and marine areas.

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Methodology used by the CPACC Pilot Study was
based on the UNEP VA methodology and utilized a
staged approached, viz Stage One -
Identification of problems and scope of
analysis. Stage Two - Scenarios for Coastal
Vulnerability Assessment. Stage Three - Impact
Assessment. Stage Four - Autonomous and Planned
Adaptation.
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Grenada Screening Assessment Matrix
Biophysical Impact Human Settlements Water Resources Tourism Recreation !nfrastructure Fishing Ports Historic/Cultural
Erosion 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 3
Inundation 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
Eco-system Loss 2 None 2 None None 1 None 3
Salinization 2 2 3 None 3 None 3 3
1 Major Impact 2 Significant Impact 3
Minor Impact
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• Vulnerability analysis focus on the Impact of sea
  level rise and storm surge and flooding on the
  following sectors
• Impact on socio-economic activities.
• Impact on critical infrastructure.
• Beach erosion and inundation.
• Impact on water resources, including potential
  for saline intrusion of the water table.
• Impact on coastal ecosystems.
• Review of institutional arrangement for
  responding to sea-level rise.

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Scenarios for Coastal Vulnerability
Assessment The scenarios used in the analysis
were Sea Level Rise SLR1 0.2 meters for
2020 SLR2 0.5 meters for 2050 SLR3 1 meter
for 2100 100-year storm surge levels SS1
SSpx1.2 (assumes 20 increase) SS2 SSp (assumes
no changes) SS3 SSpx0.8 (assumes 20
decrease) SS2 should be applied to three years
into the future SS1 and SS3 should be applied for
the year 2050 and 2100 Vertical movement VM 0
(assumes no vertical movement along the coast of
Grenada)
These scenarios are consistent with the
predictions for sea level rise in the IPCC Second
Assessment Report
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Storm Surge/Flooding Impacts Associated with
Hurricanes
HURRICANE STRENGTH WIND SPEED (mph) PRESSURE (mb) STORM SURGE FLOODING IMPACT
Category 1 74 95 gt 980 4 5 ft
Category 2 96 110 965 979 6 8 ft 3 ft 1
Category 3 111 130 945 964 9 12 ft 5 ft
Category 4 131 155 920 944 12 18 ft 10 ft
Category 5 gt155 lt 920 gt 18 ft 15 ft
Source National Hurricane Center
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Flooding Impacts under CPACC Scenarios for 12 ft.
Historical Storm Surge (5 ft Flooding)
Year Potential Storm Surge Impact 2020
3.94 5.64 ft 2050 4.27 7.61 ft
2100 5.91 - 9.25 ft
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THE CARTOGRAPHIC MODEL OF THE APPLICATION
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The Vulnerability analysis was constrained by a
number of factors Availability Baseline
Data Bathymetry Data The unavailability of
bathymetry data made it impossible to assess the
full impacts of either sea level rise, or storm
surges. This data on wave dynamics and wave
energy was important to facilitate analysis of
the erosion potential, and the run-off potential
of the waves under the different scenarios. Its
unavailability meant that the analysis that was
done was a static flooding and inundation
analysis. It also meant that the impacts of the
various reefs and headlands that protect
Grenadas coasts on wave action and energy were
not taken into consideration
Contour Maps The unavailability of contour maps
below the 25 ft. contour made it impossible to
model any impacts within the 0 1 m range
Geo-referenced Cadastral Information The
unavailability of census or cadastral information
for households, location of coastal
infrastructure and levels for groundwater wells,
in a format that could have been inputted into
the GIS models limited the ability to assess
socio-economic impacts.
Unavailability of Relevant Models The technical
team did not have many sea-level rise models to
work with. It therefore had to conduct most of
its analyses from first principles, relying on
the technical capacities of the sectoral
consultants and their abilities to incorporate
climate change considerations into their
technical analyses.
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Storm surge impact on coastal Zone
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Stage Four involves an assessment of adaptation
options, which are feasible . Autonomous
Adaptation refers to responses that will happen
spontaneously without policy intervention for
example the moving inland of coastal wetlands.
Planned Adaptation refers to policy
suggestions, which could be put in place as a
result of the outputs vulnerability studies, for
example setbacks for buildings or new building
codes.
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NEXT STEPS Despite its limitations, this Pilot
Study has demonstrated that Grenada is very
vulnerable to the potential negative impacts of
climate change. It is important therefore that
measures be initiated immediately to begin the
process of adaptation to climate change.
Sensitization of Policy Makers and Key
Stakeholders It is important that the
policy-makers and key stakeholders be sensitized
to the potential consequences of climate change
at the earliest opportunity. This is necessary,
as the implementation of any response measures
will require their approval and support
Public Awareness and Education It will facilitate
their participation in the process of developing
a national response strategy and It will
provide a supportive basis for the implementation
of national policies and measures initiated in
response to the threat of climate change.
Development of an Adaptation Framework The
development of an Adaptation Framework, within
the context of a National Climate Change Policy
Framework, is therefore a necessary first step
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• Capacity Building to Enhance future VA Analyses
• This will require a strengthening of the capacity
  of the current national technical team in the
  short run and a broadening of the skill base to
  include other technical personnel in the medium
  to long term. Such capacity building should
  include.
• Training in the use of modeling techniques
  relevant to the respective sectors.
• Training in the establishment and use of
  systematic monitoring and observation processes
  to enhance data collection for their respective
  sectors.
• Training in the assessment and analysis of
  climate change impacts, including the analysis of
  climate variability to assess its implications
  for understanding the longer-term impacts of
  climate change
• Technical and human resource needs
• The immediate technical needs include

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Technical and human resource needs (Technical
needs)

• An identification of the available models that
  can be used to further enhance the various
  components of the vulnerability and adaptation
  analysis.
• An identification of the data needs required
  for the utilization of these models.
• An identification and initiation of the
  systematic observation and monitoring processes
  required for the collection of the required data
  on a systematic basis.
• An identification of all relevant equipment
  required for the data collection and analyses.
• The establishment of an institutional framework
  for the management of the overall Vulnerability
  and Adaptation process

• Human resource needs (capacity building at two
  levels)
• The capacity building needs for the members of
  the technical team include
• Further training in the VA methodologies that
  are relevant to their respective sectors.
• Training in appropriate VA modeling techniques
  relevant to their respective sectors.
• Training in data collection and analysis
  techniques relevant to their respective sectors.

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• The capacity building for the managerial and
  technical personnel in the affected institutions
  include
• Understanding the causes and effects of climate
  change in general.
• Understanding the potential impacts of climate
  change on their respective sectors, the causes of
  the specific impacts and the options available
  for responding.
• Training in techniques for monitoring and
  analysis of the impact of climate change on their
  sectors, including data collection and modeling
  techniques.
• Training in implementing options for responding
  to climate change, including monitoring the
  impact of response measures that have been
  initiated.
• Support for integrating climate change
  considerations into the day-to-day management of
  their institutions and sectors.