GSM: A European Success Story.

1

• GSM A European Success Story.
• Interaction between major players within National
  Systems of Innovation in a Nordic Perspective
  (and an Outsider Perspective on China)
• Syros seminar, 11 July 2008
• Bent Dalum
• DRUID/IKE and Center for TeleInFrastructure
• Department of Business Studies
• Aalborg University, Denmark
• bd_at_business.aau.dk - www.business.aau.dk/bd

2
Technological life cycles Mobile Technology.
The Nordic-EU track 1
3
Wireless history 0G (landmobile)

• Major boost during WW2
• Boost of non-military applications after WW2
• The commercial fleets maritime
  radiocommunications
• Landmobile police, firefighters, transport
  companies (truck fleets, taxis etc.)
• Major companies in landmobile General Electric,
  Motorola (focused entirely of wireless
  technologies)
• Danish Storno (founded 1947) No. 3 producer of
  equipment world wide 1960s and 1970s

4
Wireless history 1G a US invention, but

• ATT introduceed first mobile telephony system
  in 1946 in St. Louis.
• Bell Labs scientist Ring invented the concept of
  cellular systems in 1947
• 1971 ATT, RCA and Motorola filed proposals to
  use 800 MHz band for cellular systems
• 1983 FCC granted first commercial cellular
  licenses
• 1983 Ameritech launched first commercial cellular
  system in Chicago.

5
Wireless history 1G the Nordic market became
the lead user

• NMT standardization began in 1970 among the
  Nordic PTOs.
• NMT 450 MHz implemented in Sweden October 1980
  and in Denmark, Finland and Norway in early 1981.

6
Wireless history 1G (analogue) the various
standards

• NMT 450 from 1980 and 900 from appr. 1985
• 1993 NMT introduced in 36 countries
• AMPS actually introduced in more countries (e.g
  Latin America)
• But the penetration ratios in the Nordic
  countries significantly larger than anywhere else
  in the world.
• TACS in the UK and C-450 in West Germany

7
Wireless history 2G (digital) the various
standards

• GSM from 1992 an EU effort. NMT copied - as an
  institution - and enlarged to the entire EU. ETSI
  formed in 1988.
• GSM the world winner (Ericsson and Nokia).
  Operated in 103 countries already in 1996.
• D-AMPS (Motorola and ATT) and CDMA (Qualcomm) in
  the US.
• PDC in Japan.

8
Wireless history 2G a family of ETSI standards

• GSM 900 and GSM 1800 (called DCS 1800)
• DECT cordless phones. Never a breakthrough in
  integration of GSM and DECT, although this will
  fulfill evident user needs.
• TETRA a public, but closed system for police,
  firefighters, ambulances etc.
• ERMES paging

9
Wireless history 2.5G

• GPRS always on makes WAP possible, higher
  transmission speed
• EDGE makes transmission in the 50-100 Kbit
  within reach
• GRPS and EDGE are extensions of the existing
  GSM networks
• EDGE is growing fast in the US GSM market

10
Wireless history 3G not a world standard

• IMT2000 a great ITU vision but did not succeed
• ETSI decision in January 1998 on WCDMA UMTS.
  The 3GPP group.
• CDMA2000 Qualcomm. 3GPP2
• TD-SCDMA China?
• 3,5G HSPA

11

• WCDMA-HSPA Key Facts (GSA March 08)
• 211 commercial WCDMA operators in 91 countries
• WCDMA technology in use by over 72 of 293
  commercial 3G operators
• Over 179 million WCDMA subscribers (Q4 07) 6.9
  million monthly growth in 2H 07
• Over 62 of commercial HSDPA operators support
  3.6 Mbps peak or higher
• Over 1.1 billion GSM WCDMA-HSDPA subscribers in
  HSDPA-enabled networks

12
The present Turbo 3G hype 4G

• 3.5G (Turbo 3G) is being rolled-out massively
  world-wide
• Turbo 3G The wireless Internet or wireles
  broadband, i.e. after some 7-8 years 3G can
  finally deliver the hype-dreams from 1999/2000
• ATT, Vodafone, Verizon and China Mobile gave a
  joint announcement of 4G LTE of the WCDMA
  technology in early 2008.
• Where is a 4G version of TD-SCDMA in this pattern?

13
Technological life cycles Mobile Technology.
The Nordic-EU track 2
14
China (1)

• 3G not launched yet. Probably three versions
  WCDMA, CDMA2000 and TD-CDMA
• China Mobile the largest wireless operator in
  the world measured by subscribers. Vodafone is
  the largest by revenue and a minority shareholder
  in China Mobile
• Huawei has leapfrogged into the global Premier
  League. Recently No. 3 in wireless
  infrastructure, only surpassed by Ericsson and
  Nokia Siemens. ZTE also a strong player
• Datang is the TD-SCDMA specialist, not Huawei and
  ZTE (?)

15
China (2)

• Will the postponement of 3G potentially dampen
  the growth of such companies as Huawei and ZTE?
• Will a 4G version of TD-SCDMA be compatible with
  WCDMA-LTE?
• In short, the entire wireless world is discussing
  whether China will become a superpower in
  wireless in consumption as well as in RD and
  technology or just a very big player?