On Models and Modeling

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On Models and Modeling
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You may recall this scene from Monty Pythons
Holy Grail
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Camelot!
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Camelot!
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Its only a model
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Why concern ourselves with models?
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Models are pervasive powerful.
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Models guide emergency plans
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Models guide political policy
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Models determineteamstasks rewardsin the
workplace
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Models train pilots
Basic passenger Safety. Mastery of unusual
situations. New equipment.
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Models shape learning.
Everyone visualizes this key relationship as a
model.
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Models interpret cultural behavior
the pursuit of reputation is the overriding
preoccupation of human life.
Social Psychology
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Models interpret cultural behavior
Consumption is always social partitioning of
goods reflects an underlying partitioning of
society.
Social Psychology
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Models interpret cultural behavior
THEORY OF EMULATIONthe upper class is happy all
the time
Social Psychology
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Models interpret cultural behavior
THEORY OF EMULATIONthe upper class is happy all
the time the upper middle class is happy 50
of the time
Social Psychology
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Models interpret cultural behavior
THEORY OF EMULATIONthe upper class is happy all
the time the upper middle class is happy 50
of the time the lower middle class is happy
25 of the time
Social Psychology
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Models interpret cultural behavior
THEORY OF EMULATIONthe upper class is happy all
the time the upper middle class is happy 50
of the time the lower middle class is happy
25 of the time the lowest class is
(relatively) unhappy all of the time.
Social Psychology
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Models guide your financial choices What will I
need to be comfortable 20 years from now?
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Models determine how your personal choices are
tracked and met.
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Models are an important intersection between
technology and human values.
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Models simplify complexity When scientific
knowledge is too complicated for us to fully
understand.
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Models make justifications for past and future
action. Human values are expressed as variables
in the model.
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Models make justifications for past and future
action. What if we do this? What if that
happens? What does the model show?
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If models simplifycomplex information and
offer justifications for action
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then what questions should you ask of a model?
?
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Our goal To develop questions that can be
applied to any model from any discipline.
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1. Types of Models
2. Definitions of Models
3. Questions
4. When to Question

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I. What are the different types of models? (we
encounter all of these in childhood)
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A model is a rough representation of reality.
The purpose is just play, fun, taking on a
challenge.
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A model is an exact representation of reality.
The goal is exactitude. Details scale are
important. A model can become a big project.
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A model is a convenient representation of reality.
Not to scale. Conceptually easier to grasp
because not to scale.
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A model is a normative representation of
reality. Variant forms and details are omitted.
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A model is a focused representation of reality.
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A model is a focused representation of reality.
Among all possible relationships, one is
featured.
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A model can be a meta-metaphorical
representation of reality.
The Circulatory System is the main
transportation and cooling system for the body.
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A model can be a meta-metaphorical
representation of reality.
The Red Blood Cells act like billions of little
UPS trucks carrying all sorts of packages that
are needed by all the cells in the body.
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A model can be a meta-metaphorical
representation of reality.
White Blood Cells are the paramedics, police and
street cleaners of the circulatory system.
Analogous relationships are featured.
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By compiling our experiences, we see 6 aspects of
models Rough artistic, play, fun Exact
artistic, but also predictive use Normative
heuristic, applicable to all cases Convenient
conceptually easier to grasp Focused
conceptually easier to grasp Meta-Metaphorical
conceptually easier to grasp
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We can focus on 4 of these aspects Rough
artistic and fun Exact artistic and
predictive Normative applicable to all
cases Convenient, Focused, Meta-metaphorical
easier to grasp
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The Sony Aibo fun, trainable, the everydog
easier to manage, too!
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1. Types of Models
2. Definitions of Models
3. Questions
4. When to Question

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II. Definitions of models (What do professionals
say about models?)
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The give the elements of models, the rationale
for models, and the uses of models.
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Elements of models
In mathematics, model theory is the study of the
representation of mathematical concepts in terms
of set theory... Wikipedia
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Elements of models
It assumes there are pre-existing mathematical
objects, and asks what can be proven given the
objects, the relationships amongst the objects,
and a set of axioms. Wikipedia
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Elements of models

• pre-existing objects
• relationship amongst the objects
• a set of axioms

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Rationale for models
A method of expressing relationships when
measuring the real world is impractical.
mc2consulting Company
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Rationale for models
Models help us to visualize the problem, to break
it down into discrete, manageable unitsLike any
other instrument, a model assumes a specific
intention of its user. Educational
Design
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Rationale for models

• Measuring the real world is impractical
• Visualizing the problem, making it manageable

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Uses for models
A prototype or surrogate of a complex situation.
It can be a physical model, such as an
architectural model of urban design, or a
mathematical model of interactions of many
variables... Course on Future Studies,
University of Arizona
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Uses for models
It can be a stand-alone tool to evaluate
different approaches using different assumptions.
Course on Future Studies, University of Arizona
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Uses for models
A representation of the components of a process,
system, or subject area, developed for
understanding, analysis, improvement, and/or
replacement of the process. Interoperability
Clearinghouse
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Uses for models

• to evaluate different approaches using different
  assumptions.
• for understanding, analysis, improvement, and/or
  replacement of the process.

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1. Types of Models
2. Definitions of Models
3. Questions
4. When to Question

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How do we question models?
TYPES Rough fun Exact predictive Normative
applicable Convenient, Focused,
Meta-Metaphorical easier to grasp
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How do we question models?

• ELEMENTS
• pre-existing objects
• operations amongst the objects
• a set of axioms

TYPES Rough fun Exact predictive Normative
applicable Convenient, Focused,
Meta-Metaphorical easier to grasp
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How do we question models?

• ELEMENTS
• pre-existing objects
• operations amongst the objects
• a set of axioms
• RATIONALE
• real measuring is impractical
• to visualize manage the problem

TYPES Rough fun Exact predictive Normative
applicable Convenient, Focused,
Meta-Metaphorical easier to grasp
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How do we question models?

• ELEMENTS
• pre-existing objects
• operations amongst the objects
• a set of axioms
• RATIONALE
• real measuring is impractical
• to visualize manage the problem
• USES
• evaluate approaches using different assumptions.
• for understanding, analysis, improvement, and/or
  replacement of a process.

TYPES Rough fun Exact predictive Normative
applicable Convenient, Focused,
Meta-Metaphorical easier to grasp
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• Questions 5 are about information
• What kind of data is being represented?
• Of this set, is all data being shown, or is only
  some data being shown? Is the data exact or
  normative?

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Questions 5 are about information 3) Which data
are being tracked and measured in real time, and
which are generated by the models relationships
and axioms?
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Questions 5 are about information 4) Which
relationship is being highlighted? Is this
relationship linked analogously to another
model? 5) If the ultimate purpose of the model is
predictive, is it possible to prove and/or
falsify the data?
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Questions 3 are about interest 6) Who
commissioned the model? 7) What was the purpose
of the model? Was understanding, analysis,
improvement or replacement of the current system
explicitly mentioned? 8) Is the new model
replacing an existing model?
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Now weve developed some questions.
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How do we apply them?
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Information What kind of data is being
represented?
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Information Is the data exact or normative?
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Information Are the data are being tracked and
measured in real time? Are the data generated by
a model or by instruments?
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Information Is it possible to prove or falsify
the predictions?
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Information Can these relationships be linked by
analogy to another model?
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Interest Who commissioned the model?
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InterestWhat was the purpose of the model?
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Interest Is the new model replacing an existing
model?
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Do all the questions apply to all models?
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YES.
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But if you can only ask 2 questions. Information
Is there any data in the model which is not
falsifiable? InterestIs replacement one of the
stated purposes of the model?
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1. Types of Models
2. Definitions of Models
3. Questions
4. When to Question

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When Models Go Bad
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5 Reasons to question the model 1) When
something just looks wrong.
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Godzilla in the bathtub
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5 Reasons to question the model 2) When there is
only one possible choice to be made.
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(No Transcript)
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5 Reasons to question the model 3) When data
consistently cannot be explained.
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5 Reasons to question the model 4) When the
model is not elegantly economical.
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The Ptolemaic Universe
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The Ptolemaic Universe
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5 Reasons to question the model 5) When the
category human is in question.
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5 Reasons to question the model When a group of
former humans are re-classified as non-human.
(losing rights)
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Cesare Lombrosos criminal types
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5 Reasons to question the model When a group of
non-humans are re-classified as human.
(obtaining rights)
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So long, and thanks for all the fish.
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• Great Model Shifts Happen When
• When something just looks wrong.
• When there is only one possible choice.
• When data consistently cannot be explained.
• When the model is not elegantly economical.
• 5) When the category human is in question.

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IMAGE CREDITS Cindy Crawfordhttp//cutechoice.co
m/cgi-bin/show.pl?celebnameCindy_Crawfordpno8
Limits to Growthhttp//www.healthtreasures.com/li
mits-to-growth-preface.html Monty Pythons Holy
Grailhttp//www.intriguing.com/mp/holygrail.asp
Katrina Track University of Wisconsin-MadisonCoo
perative Institute for Meteorological Satellite
Studieshttp//cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archive/
montage/atlantic/2005/KATRINA-track.gif World
Gas Reserves, Society of Petroleum
Engineershttp//www.spe.org/specma/binary/images/
2919957WORLDGASRESERVES.gif http//www.globalclass
room.org/hemo.html Myers-Briggs Personality
Profileshttp//www.uwsp.edu/education/lwilson/lea
rning/graphics/kirbys1.gif
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IMAGE CREDITS Pilot Training http//www.link.com/
gallery/f22_fmt_high_res.html Supply and
Demand http//www.sci.wsu.edu/math/Lessons/SupplyA
ndDemand/theory.htmlNotes on MillerPersonal
notes from ES 10 Insurance Life
Expectancy http//web2.minnesotamutual.com/IMAGES/
EDUCATE/LIFE_EXPECTANCY.GIF My
Simon http//www.mjweber.com/Confessionsmm/bots/bo
ts.htm Popsicle Projectshttp//pacifi.ca/models.
html http//www.tinypineapple.com/archives/2003/10
/disneyland_day_five_a_theme_park_with_a_theme.ht
ml Car Models www.oakridgehobbies.com
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IMAGE CREDITS Solar System Modelshttp//www.brow
nmunoz.com/Universe/Universe_intro.html Visible
Womanhttp//www.plumcreekmarketing.com/07science/
01images/fullsize/160321.jpg USGS Water
Cyclehttp//ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/watercycle.html
Circulatory System http//www.globalclassroom.or
g/hemo.html Aibo and Aibone http//gamma.cs.unc.e
du/COMP290-58/aibo.jpg http//www.mobilityparty.co
m/mobility_2003/press/ Axiom http//www.jtauber.c
om/blog/2005
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IMAGE CREDITS Ocean http//www.spartanburg2.k12.s
c.us/OES/Ocean20waves20clipart.jpg http//hyperp
hysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/waves/watwav2.html
Replacement Model http//web.pdx.edu/stipakb/down
load/PA557/ReplacementModelExample.gif Mae
Westhttp//photos1.blogger.com/img/96/3696/320/Ma
e20West.jpgGodzillahttp//www.freerepublic.com
/focus/chat/1160331/postsLombroso Criminal
Typeshttp//ledroitcriminel.free.fr/utilitaires/i
conographie/iconographie_1/lombroso_1_jpg_view.htm
Dolphins So Long, and Thanks for All the
Fish http//www.spawar.navy.mil/sandiego/technolog
y/mammals/animals.html Ptolemaic
Universehttp//www.luminarium.org/encyclopedia/me
dievalcosmology.htmhttp//abyss.uoregon.edu/js/a
st121/lectures/lec02.html