Celtic Cultures in Transition (4)

1
Celtic Cultures in Transition (4)

• A Referendum in Scotland?

2
A Referendum in Scotland?

• Norman Davies, historian from the University of
  Oxford, considers that the break-up of the United
  Kingdom is now inevitable.
• Simon Brooks, University of Cardiff, Wales
  (writing in Barn) it would be a disaster for
  Wales if Scotland obtained independence. Wales
  would become an unimportant part of a perverse
  state called EnglandWalesNorthernIreland.
• And probably Northern Ireland would eventually
  become part of the Irish State.

3
A Referendum in Scotland

• This view was also mirrored by the First Minister
  for Wales, Carwyn Jones.
• Is this the only way ahead?
• Certainly, however, the political mood in England
  has changed with the advent of devolution since
  the 1990s.
• The dog that finally barked England as an
  emerging political community (Richard Wyn Jones,
  Guy Lodge, Ailsa Henderson, Charlie Jeffery) 2012.

4
England in an age of devolution

• The attitude in England towards devolution has
  been (perhaps predictably?) mainly negative when
  people are asked about whether the governance of
  the UK has improved or become worse with
  devolution.
• Between 2000 and 2011 people in England became
  more negative about devolution and its effects.
  Especially where Scotland is concerned.

5
England in an age of devolution

• There has for instance been an increase in those
  who belief that Scottish members of the UK
  Parliament should not vote on matters only
  concerning England
• 2000 (18) 2011 (53) (those who strongly
  believe this proposition).

6
England in an age of devolution

• When asked whether Scotland should pay for public
  services from taxes collected in Scotland, the
  following figures emerged
• 2001 (20) 2011 (44) (strongly believed this).
• Also, perhaps even more significantly, there are
  changes in the way English people (in England)
  define their identity

7
England in an age of devolution

• English and not British, 1997 (7) 2011 (17)
• More English than British, 1997 (17) 2011 (23)
• Equally English and British, 1997 (45) 2011
  (34)
• More British than English, 1997 (9) 2011 (7)

8
Independence or devo max?

• Is this the only option however?
• Does everything have to revolve around a
  referendum on independence or are other options
  possible that will reflect the new realities in
  Scotland, England and Wales?
• In fact, the concept of devo max has a strong
  following, and has also been discussed since for
  the last five years.

9
devo max for Scotland? What is it?

• Devo max. In a word (or two), this strange term
  refers to a situation where (eg) Scotland would
  have the maximum number of powers just short of
  independence (ie remain in the UK). Especially
  important would be the right to raise
  considerable taxes, fix taxation rates and to
  borrow on the international markets.
• http//www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15620565

10
Devo Max the idea of it!

• Commission on Scottish Devolution
• This Commission chaired by Prof. Sir Kenneth
  Calman) began its work in 2008. Its purpose was
  to review the experience of Scottish devolution
  since 1998.
• Its final report was published in 2009
• Serving Scotland Better Scotland and the United
  Kingdom in the 21st Century
• http//www.commissiononscottishdevolution.org.uk/u
  ploads/2009-06-12-csd-a5_final-summary_ibook.pdf

11
Calmans Report

• The committee was set up to review the provisions
  of the Scotland Act (1998).
• Significantly, they saw their function as
  advisors on a number of issues to do with the
  Scottish Parliament and to continue to secure the
  position of Scotland within the United Kingdom.

12
Calmans Report

• They emphasized the social union between
  Scotland the rest of the UK. But much of their
  attention was focussed on financial issues.
• The economic union therefore becomes a major
  issue.
• The committee made a number of recommendations in
  this area

13
Calmans Report

• Part of the Budget of the Scottish Parliament
  should now be found from devolved taxation under
  its control rather than from grant from the UK
  Parliament.
• They advocated a new Scottish rate of income
  tax.
• Yet the structure of the income tax system
  should remain entirely the responsibility of the
  UK Parliament.

14
Calmans Report

• They also recommended an extension in borrowing
  powers of the Scottish Parliament.
• Intergovernmental reforms were also a major
  element in the recommendations of the committee.
• For example the UK Parliament and Scottish
  Parliament should have mechanisms to communicate
  with each other.

15
Calmans Report

• Recommendations were also made by the committee
  in relation to the Scottish Parliaments position
  with regard to the EU.
• Scottish ministers and the relevant Scottish
  Parliament committee should become more proactive
  in identifying EU issies of interest to Scotland

16
Calmans Report

• Some recommendations were also made about the
  number of restricted powers that the Scottish
  Parliament has.
• They are mainly lesser issues, eg the
  recommendation that the S Parliament should have
  the power to determine th elevel of the national
  speed limit in Scotland.

17
The follow-up

• The direct result of the Calman Report was to
  encourage the Westminster Government to work on a
  new Scotland Act in place of the previous 1998
  Act (that had brought about the Scottish
  Parliament).

18
The new Scotland Act 2010-2011

• The Bill will implement recommendations of the
  Final Report of the Commission on Scottish
  Devolution (the Calman Commission). 2009
• It would make changes to the finances of the
  Scottish Parliament, including a new Scottish
  rate of income tax, and make a number of
  adjustments to the boundary of devolved
  responsibilities.

19
The new Scotland Act 2010-2011

• This new bill has already been through the House
  of Commons (Westminster), and has had its first
  and second readings in the House of Lords.
• On 26 January 2012, it will go to the committee
  stage.

20
The new (proposed) Scotland Act 2010-2011

• Read Steven Tierneys analysis of the content of
  the new Scotland Bill
• http//ukconstitutionallaw.org/2011/11/23/stephen-
  tierney-the-scotland-bill-before-the-scottish-parl
  iament/

21
The new Scotland Act 2010-2011

• At the same time in 2011, the bill came before
  the Scottish Parliament for consent (this is
  called Legislative Consent Motion).
• The Scottish Parliament created a committee to
  comment on the bill which supported the general
  principles of the bill but asked to see any
  amendments made by the Westminster Parliaments
  (Commons, Lords), and to have the opportunity to
  debate them. This was all before the elections in
  Scotland in 2011.

22
The new Scotland Act 2010-2011- after the SNP
victory.

• After the election in Scotland in 2011, and
  greatly increased number of seats held by the now
  governing SNP, a new committee (to oversee the
  new Act) was convened with a very different
  membership.
• They are now reconsidering the whole issue of
  giving the Bill an LCM.
• In his speech to the Scottish Parliament 18 May
  2011, Alex Salmond (First Minister) called for

23
The new Scotland Act 2010-2011

• Called for improvements to the Bill.
• Alex Salmonds speech to the Scottish Parliament
• http//www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Speeches/Speeches/
  First-Minister/electionfm2011

24
Alex Salmonds speech 18 May 2011.

• He specifically outlined six areas for further
  improvement borrowing powers, corporation tax,
  the Crown Estate, excise duties, digital
  broadcasting and a stronger say in European
  policy.
• On 13 June 2011, the UK Government announced
  proposals to amend the Scotland Bill, and it is
  with a complex mix of the published Bill, plus
  additional provisions proposed both from
  Whitehall and the Scottish Government that the
  Committee (in Scotland) is now concerned.

25
Alex Salmond, MSP

• First Minister of Scotland
• Leader of the SNP
• From Linlithgow, West Lothian

26
Alex Salmond

• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vNC8YGhnZWxg
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?featureendscreenNR
  1vx3xIkZcCTYY

27
Alex Salmond

• Salmond is one of the foremost proponents of
  Scottish Independence, repeatedly calling for a
  referendum on the issue. Salmond has campaigned
  on global warming and in government has committed
  Scotland to legislation on emission reduction and
  the generation of renewable energy..

• Other recurring campaign themes include nuclear
  disarmement and Salmond's strong opposition to
  the2003 Invasion of Iraq.
• Background in economics.

28
Referendum

• Choosing Scotlands Future. Draft Referendum
  (Scotland) Bill Consultation Paper. 2010 SNP
• http//www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/303348/009
  5138.pdf
• Since the electoral victory in 2011, the idea of
  holding a referendum has become governmental
  policy.

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Referendum

• The referendum will be advisory, in that it will
  have no legislative effect. However, the
• Scottish Government would expect the UK and
  Scottish Parliaments and the respective
• Governments to listen to the views of the
  Scottish people and act on them.

30
Referendum

• Two potential approaches to the first question
  one based on the concept of full devolution and
  another based on the limited recommendations for
  financial devolution made by the Commission on
  Scottish Devolution (the Calman Commission).

31
Independence proposals

• the economy, including decisions on the currency
  and the macroeconomic framework
• investment in education, enterprise and
  infrastructure, including transport and housing
• the environment, energy and climate change
• the taxation and benefits system

32
Independence proposals

• the full range of public services, including
  benefits and health
• foreign affairs, defence and security matters.
  For example, Scotland would
• continue membership of the European Union,
  representing its own national interests in the
  same way as other member states, influencing
  directly the overall
• direction of European Union policy. An
  independent Scotland would also have full
• representation on other European and
  international bodies
• equality legislation and human rights and
• the constitution and government of Scotland,
  including Parliament, the courts and
• local government.

33
Independence proposals

• Her Majesty The Queen would remain as Head of
  State. The current parliamentary
• and political Union of Great Britain and Northern
  Ireland would become a monarchical
• and social Union united kingdoms rather than a
  United Kingdom maintaining a
• relationship forged in 1603 by the Union of the
  Crowns.

34
Independence proposals

• Scotland would continue to operate within the
  Sterling system until any decision to join the
  Euro by the people of Scotland in a referendum

35
Independence proposals

• Within this relationship, a broad range of
  cultural, social and policy links would continue
  and it is likely that both an independent
  Scotland and the remainder of the UK would seek
  to maintain and build on a series of cross-border
  partnerships and
• services.
• As members of the European Union, both Scotland
  and the rest of the UK would enjoy full access to
  the others markets and there would be freedom to
  travel and work in either country.

36
The question of questions

• The SNP propose two questions in a referendum.

37
Referendum the two questions. First question

• The first proposal would ask voters whether they
  agree that the powers and responsibilities
• of the Scottish Parliament should be extended so
  that the Parliament becomes
• responsible for a range of matters (either full
  responsibility for domestic matters as set out in
  the full devolution proposal or more
  responsibility for financial affairs as
• recommended by the Calman Commission).

38
Referendum. Second question

• The second proposal asks voters whether they
  agree that the extension of the Scottish
• Parliaments powers set out in proposal 1 should
  be supplemented by a further powers
• to enable independence to be achieved.
• Devo-max or independence?

39
David Cameron defending the Union.
40
Referendum

• Westminster fears that "devo max" will be harder
  to defeat because it will split the unionist vote
  and win over those who otherwise would have said
  no to full independence

41
Referendum

• On January 8 British PM David Cameron stated that
  his government would grant Holyrood Scottish
  parliament the legal authority to hold an
  independence referendum, on condition that it be
  restricted to a simple in/out question. Two days
  later, Scotland's first minister, Alex Salmond,
  announced plans to hold a referendum in Autumn
  2014.

42
Referendum

• A series of clashes between Holyrood and London
  over the wording of the referendum is now
  inevitable. Salmond has hinted that he might put
  more than one question to Scottish voters, full
  independence or devo max devolution that
  would leave little more than defence and foreign
  policy in British government hands..

43
Referendum

• David Camerons view (Prime Minister of the UK)
• http//www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16465704