The Third Wave

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The Third Wave

• Paul Bacon
• SILS, Waseda University

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Three Waves of Democracy

• In his book The Third Wave, Samuel Huntington
  argues that there have been three waves of
  democratization in modern history.

Samuel P. Huntington
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Huntingtons Definition of Democracy

• Huntington offers two definitions of democracy
  that apply to different periods of time.
• Definition 1
• -Applies to 19th Century.
• 50 of adult males can vote.
• There is an executive that either maintains
  majority support in an elected parliament, or is
  chosen in periodic popular elections.

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Huntingtons Definition of Democracy

• Definition 2
• - Applies to 20th Century.
• Virtually all adults can vote.
• Leaders are selected through fair, honest and
  periodic elections.

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The Three Waves When?
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The First Wave Why?

• Occurred mostly in Northern Europe and white
  settler countries. The causes are
• Economic Factors
• First countries to experience economic
  development, industrialization and urbanization.
• Emergence of middle class.
• Decrease in economic inequality.

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The First Wave Why?

• Historical events and intellectual developments
• French Revolution.
• American Revolution.
• John Locke.
• Montesquieu.
• John Stuart Mill.

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The First Wave Why?

• Religious Factors
• Over 75 of the countries that democratized in
  the first wave had majority Protestant
  populations.
• World War One
• Democratic countries defeated two large
  authoritarian empires, the Austro-Hungarian and
  Ottoman Empires.
• This produced snowballing, or a demonstration
  effect, that encouraged the development of
  democracy.

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The Second Wave Why?

• The second wave is largely related to WW2.
• Imposition of Democracy.
• Allied powers imposed democracy on certain
  defeated countries, such as Japan and Germany.
• Snowballing (demonstration) effect.
• Some countries independently chose to be
  democratic.

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The Second Wave Why?

• Decolonization.
• Countries that had a number of colonies (e.g.
  Britain, France, Holland and Portugal) were
  severely weakened after WW2.
• The United States pressured these countries to
  give up their colonies.
• Many former colonies became independent and
  democratic.

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The Third Wave Why?

• Some 30 countries became democratic.
• Legitimacy.
• Democratic ideas became widely accepted.
• Authoritarian regimes could not solve economic
  problems as efficiently as democratic countries.
• Economic Growth.
• Higher standards of living and education
  contributed to the expansion of the urban middle
  class.

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The Third Wave Why?

• Change in the Catholic church.
• The Catholic church, which used to be a supporter
  of authoritarian regimes, changed its doctrine
  and practice and supported democracy.
• Foreign Policy.
• Expansion of the EU.
• Promotion of democracy and human rights by the
  United States.
• Fall of the Soviet Union.

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The Third Wave Why?

• Snowball (or demonstration effect).
• Early third wave transitions received great media
  attention, which later stimulated transitions in
  other countries.

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Democratic Transition

• Democratic transition requires three components.
• The end of an authoritarian regime.
• The installation of a new democratic regime
  (through elections).
• The consolidation of this democratic regime.

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Democratic Transition A/a-d-D

• A/a-d-D
• A stable, long-lasting authoritarian regime.
• D stable, long-lasting democratic regime.
• a unstable, short-lived authoritarian regime.
• d unstable, short-lived democratic regime.

Stable Authoritarianism
Unstable Democracy
Stable Democracy
Unstable Authoritarianism
Time
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Processes of Democratization

• Huntington identifies three different types of
  democratization process.
• Democratic transformation.
• takes place when powerholders take the lead in
  bringing about democracy.
• Democratic replacement.
• takes place when opposition groups take the lead
  in bringing about democracy. Old authoritarian
  regime is overthrown.
• Democratic transplacement.
• takes place when there is joint action by the
  government and opposition groups to promote
  democratization.

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Prospects for Democratic Consolidation

• The following conditions facilitate democratic
  consolidation.
• Previous experience of democracy.
• Relatively high GNP per capita.
• Favorable external environment.
• Democratic transition at an earlier, rather than
  later, stage in the third wave.
• Democratization via transplacement, rather than
  transformation or replacement.
• The following slides discuss each of these
  conditions more in detail.

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1. Previous Democratic Experience

• Huntington argues that
• Some experience of democracy is better than none.
  
• Longer experience of democracy is better than
  shorter experience.
• The more recent the democratic experience, the
  better.

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Chart Years of Democratic Experience
More than 20 years Uruguay, The Philippines, India, Turkey, Chile
10-19 years Greece, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Korea, Pakistan, Brazil
1-9 years Argentina, Honduras, Guatemala, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Grenada, Nigeria
Less than one year Spain, Portugal, El Salvador, Poland, Romania, East Germany, Bulgaria, Nicaragua, Sudan, Mongolia
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2. Level of Economic Development

• The higher level of economic development, the
  greater the likelihood of stable democracy.
• Economically developed countries have
• More industrialized economies.
• More modern economies.
• More complex societies.
• Better educated populations.
• These factors all help consolidate democracy.

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Chart Democracy and GNP per capita
Higher than 5, 000 Spain, East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria
2, 000 4, 999 Greece, Portugal, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Poland, Romania, Korea
1, 000 1, 999 Ecuador, Peru, Turkey, Grenada, Chile
500 999 Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Bolivia, The Philippines
Less than 500 India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan
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3. The External Environment

• A foreign country can have a positive influence
  on democratic consolidation, if the relevant
  foreign government
• is itself democratic.
• promotes democracy in other countries.
• has close relations with the third wave country
  in question.
• is able to exercise influence in the third wave
  country in question.

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Chart External Environment and Democracy
Extremely favorable East Germany, Spain, Portugal, Greece
Quite Favorable Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Turkey, The Philippines, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Grenada
Favorable Peru, Ecuador, Uruguay, Korea, Chile
Unfavorable Argentina, Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sudan, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia
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4. The Timing of the Democratic Transition

• Early Indigenous
• Earlier democratizations are more likely to be
  the result of indigenous causes, rather than a
  snowball effect.
• Indigenous Consolidation
• Democratic transitions caused by indigenous
  factors are more likely to lead to consolidated
  democracies.
• Therefore, Early Consolidation
• The earlier a country democratizes within the
  third wave, the more likely it is to become a
  consolidated democracy.

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First Dates of Elections and Democracy
Before 1980 Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ecuador, India, Nigeria,
1980 1983 Peru, Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras, Turkey
1984 1987 Uruguay, Brazil, The Philippines, El Salvador, Guatemala, Korea, Grenada, Sudan
1988 1990 Pakistan, Poland, Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Chile
Possible after 1990 Mexico, Soviet Union, South Africa, Taiwan, Nepal, Panama
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5. Process of Democratic Transition

• Huntington identified three processes of
  democratic transition transformation,
  replacement and transplacement.
• Huntington argues
• There is more chance of a successful democratic
  consolidation if elites from the previous
  non-democratic regime are satisfied.
• There is less chance of democratic consolidation
  if the transition involved violence.
• If the above statements are true, it follows that
  transplacement is most likely to lead to
  consolidated democracy.

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Chart Transition Process and Democracy
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Chart Overall Prospects for Democracy
Most Favorable Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay, Turkey
Less Favorable but Supportive Czechoslovakia, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, India, Argentina, Brazil, The Philippines, Poland, Hungary, (Korea)
Less Favorable Guatemala, Grenada, Nigeria, El Salavador, Pakistan, Nicaragua, Bulgaria, Mongolia
Especially Unfavorable Sudan, Romania
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Chart Freedom Classification by Freedom House
(2003)
Free Greece, Portugal, Spain, East Germany, Uruguay, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Brazil, The Philippines, India, Poland, Hungary, Grenada, Bulgaria, El Salvador, Mongolia, Romania, Korea
Partly Free Turkey, Ecuador, Honduras, Argentina, Guatemala, Nigeria, Nicaragua
Not Free Pakistan, Sudan
http//www.freedomhouse.org
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Further Democratization?

• Most currently authoritarian governments do not
  have any previous democratic experience.
• Huntington is not sure whether the third wave
  will continue or not.
• Huntington raises the possibility that some
  cultures may not be amenable to democracy. He
  suggests two versions of this cultural obstacle
  argument.

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Cultural Obstacles to Democracy?

• The two versions of the cultural obstacle
  argument.
• Version 1
• Only Western cultures are amenable to democracy.
  Non-western countries are not.
• Version 2
• Not all non-western cultures are amenable to
  democracy. But there are certain cultures which
  are resistant to democratic transition, such as
  Islamic and Confucian culture.

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Democracy as Western Culture

• There is evidence to suggest that the first
  argument is true.
• Modern democracy originated in the West.
• Since the early 19th century, most democratic
  countries have been western countries.
• Outside of the North Atlantic, democratic
  transition has been most likely in
• Former British colonies.
• Countries heavily influenced by the United
  States.
• Former colonies of Spain and Portugal in Latin
  America.

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Democracy as Western Culture

• In 1973, at the lowest point in the second
  reverse wave, there were only 29 democracies.
  Among them
• 20 were west European or European settler
  countries or Latin American countries.
• 8 were former British colonies.
• Japan.
• Of the 30 third wave countries, 23 were western
  countries, or countries where there had been
  substantial western influence.

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End of Lecture.

• Thank you for your attention.