Sociology SOCI 20182 Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

1
Sociology SOCI 20182Demography of Russia and the
Former Soviet Union

• Instructors Leonid Gavrilov, Natalia Gavrilova
• Lecture 2

2
Components of population growth in Russia,
1927-2006
Green- Natural increase Pink increase due to
migration Source Demoscope Weekly
3
Publication on the history of Russian population
before 1959

• The most detailed publication on the topic is
  available in Russian
• Andreev, E.M., Darsky, L.E., Kharkova, T.L.
  Demographic History of Russia 1927-1957,
  Moscow Informatika, 1998 (available online at
  Demoscope Weekly)

4
Recent events in Russia
5
First steps of Gorbachev

• May 1985 - Anti-alcohol campaign
• Sales of alcohol were significantly decreased.
  The campaign was highly unpopular. But it had
  very strong demographic impact.
• May 1986 - Campaign against unearned income.
  Directed against unofficial small businesses

6
Effect of anti-alcohol campaign on life
expectancy in Russia
From 1984 to 1987 life expectancy of men
increased from 61.7 to 64..8. Life expectancy of
women increased from 73.0 to 74.3.
7
Disasters during the Gorbachevs term

• April 1986 - Chernobyl accident. Explosion at
  the nuclear plant. Affects mortality many years
  later.
• August 1986 - Nakhimov cruise ship sank within
  minutes. Over 400 dead
• June 1989 two passenger trains exploded because
  of a leak in the gas pipeline. Over 500 dead,
  over 600 badly injured

8
Gorbachev and perestroyka

• Gorbachev introduced sweeping political and
  economic reforms, bringing glasnost and
  perestroika, openness and restructuring, to
  the Soviet system. He established much warmer
  relations with the West, ended the Soviet
  occupation of Afghanistan, and announced that the
  Warsaw Pact countries were free to pursue their
  own political agendas. In 1990 he was awarded the
  Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to ending
  the 45-year conflict between East and West.

9
March 1991 Union-wide Referendum

• 80 of population participated in referendum
• 76.4 voted for the retention of the Soviet Union
  in a reformed form. (from 70 in Ukraine to 98
  in Turkmenia)
• The Baltics, Armenia, Georgia and Moldova
  boycotted the referendum.

10
August 1991 - Military Coup

• On August 19, 1991, four senior officials acted
  to prevent the signing of the union treaty by
  forming the "State Committee on the State
  Emergency." The "Committee" put Gorbachev
  (vacationing in Crimea) under house arrest,
  reintroduced political censorship, and attempted
  to stop the perestroika.
• This action did not receive population support
  and eventually failed.

11
The last days of the Soviet Union

• Bread queue, Moscow (Dec 1991). Waiting for a
  bread kiosk to open in a western Moscow suburb.

http//www.4020.net/eastbloc/
12
1991 - Dissolution of the Soviet Union

• Yeltsin's defiant actions during the couphe
  barricaded himself in the Russian parliament and
  called for national strikesresulted in
  Gorbachev's reinstatement. But from then on,
  power had effectively shifted from Gorbachev to
  Yeltsin and away from centralized power to
  greater power for the individual Soviet
  republics.
• In the end of 1991 the leaders of Russia, Ukraine
  and Belarus made a decision to dissolve the
  Soviet Union at the separate meeting in
  Belovezhska puscha (Belarus).
• Gorbachev resigned on Dec. 25, and Yeltsin, who
  had been the driving force behind the Soviet
  dissolution, became president of the newly
  established Russian Republic.

13
Yeltsin and market reforms

• At the start of 1992, Russia embarked on a series
  of dramatic economic reforms, including the
  freeing of prices on most goods, which led to an
  immediate downturn.

14
Soviet Economy

• The economy of the Soviet Union was based on a
  system of state ownership and administrative
  planning. Gosplan (State planning body).
• After 1930 all industrial property and virtually
  all land were collective.
• Personal property was allowed but private
  property was abolished
• It was a crime to hold and exchange foreign
  currency.

15
Gaydar Reforms of 1992

• Regulated retail prices became free (skyrocketed)
  
• Currency exchange was allowed
• Large and small businesses were allowed
• Privatization of everything
• Now these reforms are called infamous in the
  Russian mass media.

16
Impact of Disintegration of Central Planning
Apparatus

• Distribution system disappears no market to
  replace it.
• Non-cash economy becomes barter economy.
• Dramatic decline of industrial sector,
  particularly military related industry

17
GDP Crisis
18
Effect of market reforms on life expectancy in
Russia
Life expectancy of men dropped from 63.8 years in
1990 to 57.4 years in 1994. Life expectancy of
women dropped from 74.3 years to 71.1 years
19
October 1993

• In September 1993, Yeltsin dissolved the
  legislative bodies. Tanks were used to shoot the
  Russian Parliament
• Bloodshed continued further in Chechnya

20
1996

• Yeltsin won the president elections

21
1998 - new economic crisis

• On Aug. 28, 1998, amid the Russian stock market's
  free fall, the Russian government halted trading
  of the ruble on international currency markets.
  This financial crisis led to a long-term economic
  downturn and political upheaval.

22
1998 crisis stopped demographic recovery
23
The Rise of Putin

• Yeltsin nominated Vladimir Putin as a Prime
  Minister on Aug. 9, 1999, announcing that in
  addition to serving as prime minister, the former
  KGB agent was his choice as a successor in the
  2000 presidential election.

24
Putins rule

• On March 26, 2000, Putin won the presidential
  election with about 53 of the vote. Putin moved
  to centralize power in Moscow and attempted to
  limit the power and influence of both the
  regional governors and wealthy business leaders.
  Although Russia remained economically stagnant,
  Putin brought his nation a measure of political
  stability it never had under the unpredictable
  and erratic Yeltsin.

25
Medvedev the New Russian President

• In December, Putin endorsed Dmitri Medvedev in
  March 2008's presidential election. A Putin
  loyalist who is said to be moderate and
  pro-Western, Medvedev is a first deputy prime
  minister and the chairman of Gazprom, the
  country's oil monopoly. Medvedev said that if
  elected, he would appoint Putin as prime
  minister. Medvedev won the March presidential
  election with 67 of the vote.

26
Putin about populationDecember 2009

• We can say with a high degree of confidence that
  Russia will register a growth in population for
  the first time since 1995.
• Putin said at an end-of-year government meeting
  broadcast on state television.
• The prime minister said official statistics to be
  released later would bear this fact out and his
  spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that Putin
  was referring to 2009 for the change in the trend.

27
Population of Russia after 2000
Source Goskomstat Russia
28
Population changes ( per year) in Russia after
2000
Source Goskomstat Russia
29
Components of population change
Source Goskomstat Russia
30
Changes in Russian fertility rates
Source Goskomstat Russia
31
Changes in life expectancy in Russia
Source Goskomstat Russia
32
What is Russia Now?
33
Economic Performance 1999-2006
34
Real GDP (1989100)
Russia Average, transition countries
35
Changes in GDP
36
Balance of Trade

• 2000 - Surplus of 60 billion
• 2001 Surplus of 48 billion
• 2002 Surplus of 46 billion
• 2003 Surplus of 48.7 billion
• 2006 Surplus of 125.9 euro
• 2007 Surplus of 111.2 euro
• 2008 Surplus of 127.4 euro
• Source IMF

37
Dynamics of Russian Software Exports
As for future, the country is projected to export
software worth over US 15 Billion by 2012.
38
Unemployment and poverty rate
39
Real Wage Growth
40
Moscow City
The Moscow City complex, where Renaissance
Capital has their main offices. RenCap CEO
Stephen Jennings predicts that Moscow will soon
become one of the world's top five financial
centers
41
Final Remarks on Russian History

• Russia is a thing of which
• The intellect cannot conceive
• Hers is no common yardstick
• You measure her uniquely
• In Russia you only believe
• Fjodor Tyutchev, Russian poet
• Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside
  an enigma (Sir W. Churchill)