Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

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Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

• Lecture 10
• Sociology SOCI 20182

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Current trends in life expectancy
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Current trends in life expectancy in Moscow and
some Eastern European countries
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Main features of recent improvement

• Highest gains in working ages (15-64)
• Main improvements due to causes directly related
  to alcohol, accidents and respiratory diseases
• These improvements may be related to the recent
  measures of increased control after alcohol
  production adopted in 2005

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Additional factor fluctuations in
alcohol-related mortality
Age-standardized mortality of men (per 100,000)
from accidental poisoning by alcohol
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Improvement in life expectancy in 2005-2006, Men
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Improvement in life expectancy in 2005-2006, Women
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Migration

• Different types of migration
• International migration
• Internal migration
• Labor migration
• Forced migration
• Repatriation

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Migration statistics in the Soviet Union

• Soviet Union had unique and very accurate system
  of migration statistics (for internal migration)
• This system was closely related to the passport
  system and residence registration (propiska).
  Data were collected by the Ministry of Internal
  Affairs (MVD)
• Change of address was accompanied by departure
  registration and arrival registration
• The system was totalitarian (migration required
  permission from police)

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Migration statistics in Russia (1990s)

• Soviet system of migration statistics was
  destroyed
• Main changes happened in 1995 when the system of
  registration was modified. All migrants were
  divided into two categories
• (1) those who change their permanent
  address
• (2) those who register for temporary
  residence.
• Migration statistics covers only permanent
  migrants.
• Main limitation incomplete coverage

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Staying in Russia required registration in police
Police could stop person without any reason and
ask for registration
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Problems with migration statistics in Russia
(continue)

• Problems also existed in registration of external
  migration (migration to/from other countries)
• Restrictive laws about obtaining permanent
  residence in Russia were adopted in 2000 and then
  in 2003. As a result, many immigrants registered
  as temporary migrants and were not accounted by
  the state statistics (migration underestimation)

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Migrants often have problems with police
Deportation of illegal immigrants
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Migration flows in the FSU countries
Until recently only Russia and Belarus had
positive migration rates
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Migration in FSU countries

• Migration rates are declining in most countries.
  Exception Kazakhstan
• Migration outside FSU countries is also
  declining. Most emigrants go to USA, Germany and
  Israel
• Over 80 of migrants are at working ages

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Migration between Russia and FSU countries

• In 1980-1989 positive migration flows to Russia
  from all FSU countries except for the Baltic
  countries
• In 1990-1994 positive migration flows from all
  FSU countries except for Ukraine
• In 1995-1999 positive migration flows from all
  FSU countries except for Belarus
• With outside world (non-FSU countries) migration
  rate was always negative (out-migration exceeded
  in-migration)

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Labor migration in Russia

• Most labor migrants come to Russia illegally.
  Researchers estimate over 4 million illegal
  migrants in Russia.
• Until 2005 the number of official migrants
  comprised no more than 5 of all labor migrants
• In January 2007 new legislation was adopted,
  which facilitated official registration for labor
  migrants

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Labor migrants in Russia
Migrants often occupy low-skilled jobs
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Growth of official labor migrants in Russia
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Labor migrants to Russia in 2006 (official data)

• 16.9 came from Ukraine
• 10.4 came from Uzbekistan
• 9.7 came from Tadjikistan
• 10 came from Turkey
• 20.8 came from China
• 40 work in construction
• 30 work in trade

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According to surveys

• 70 of migrants are men
• Mean age 32-33 years
• 35-40 have 3 or more dependents
• About 50 had no stable work in their country of
  origin
• 40-50 could be called very poor before
  migration

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Recent tendencies in labor migration in Russia

• Proportion of migrants from Central Asia is
  increasing
• Cultural distance between migrants and local
  population is increasing 3 of migrants in
  Moscow and 17 in Astrakhan (Southern city) know
  Russian poorly
• Educational level of migrants is decreasing

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Education of migrants
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Foreign labor migrants by industry
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Russia will depend on labor migrants

• By 2015 labor force in Russia will decrease by 8
  million people by 2025 by 18-19 million

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New migration policy in Russia

• On March 17 2005 President Putin called
  stimulation of migration processes to be one of
  the most important task
• New laws On migration accounting of foreign
  citizens and persons without citizenship in
  Russian Federation and On legal status of
  foreign citizens were adopted on July 18 2006
  and significantly facilitated migration to Russia

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New migration policy in Russia

• Registration at the place of residence (all
  immigrants) simple procedure, which does not
  require permission (in the past it required
  personal visit to police for all persons living
  at the registration address)
• Permission to work (non-visa immigrants) simple
  procedure (in the past permission was given to
  employer)
• Migrant quotas separately for visa and non-visa
  immigrants. No quotas for qualified specialists.

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Registration among migrants to Russia before and
after the new migration laws (survey results in
2007)
Question Have you registered?
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Obtaining work permit among migrants to Russia
before and after the new migration laws (survey
results in 2007)
Question Have you obtained your work permit?
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Gender differences in registration and obtaining
work permit among migrants to Russia (2007)
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Age differences in registration and obtaining
work permit among migrants to Russia (2007)
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Education differences in registration and
obtaining work permit among migrants to Russia
(2007)
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Ethnic differences in registration and obtaining
work permit among migrants to Russia (2007)
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Positive results of new migration policy in Russia

• More accurate data about total number of
  immigrants including labor migrants. During 2007
  eight million entries to Russia were registered
• Significant decrease of illegal immigration,
  increase of legitimate status of temporary labor
  migrants. Two-fold increase of taxation base
• Better estimation of the number of labor
  migrants, which is about 4.5 million in Russia in
  2007

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Russia and international standards of migration
statistics

• International standards consider two major
  statistical categories
• flows (number of persons changed their place of
  residence during the studied period) and
• stocks number of migrants at the particular
  territory on a specific date.

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Russia and international standards of migration
statistics

• Flows are registered by the current migration
  statistics (number of persons changed their place
  of residence during the current year), border
  statistics (number of departures and entries
  during the year), statistics of foreign workers
  getting their jobs, statistics of foreign
  students, etc.

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Improvement of migration statistics after 2007

• Since 2007 Rosstat (former Goskomstat) gets data
  from the Federal Migration Service about foreign
  migrants
• Since 2008 Rosstat gets data from the FMS about
  migrants-Russian citizens registered at their new
  residence for more than a year (information about
  ethnicity removed but info about the purpose of
  migration added)
• In the forthcoming 2010 census more questions
  related to migration are added

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Improvement of migration statistics after 2007
(continue)

• Since 2007 Federal Migration Service presents
  information on its activity at FMS website
  http//www.fms.gov.ru
• Administrative systems became more open (e.g.,
  statistics on obtaining Russian citizenship)
• Development of these information systems is at
  the beginning now, so we will see the results
  later.

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Russia and international standards of migration
statistics

• Stocks can be estimated by census (number of
  foreign citizens living in the country or number
  of persons born abroad), by FMS (persons with
  residence permit or work permit, refugees).
• Standard methods of migration statistics are not
  completely applicable to Russia and other FSU
  countries, which were a single country in the
  past (e.g., number of persons born abroad).

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Russia and international standards of migration
statistics

• In the past moving from one part of the country
  to another one was made by the citizens of the
  same country within the boarders of one country
• Most migrations occurred before the Soviet Union
  dissolution. For example, censuses in Ukraine and
  Belarus showed that 85 and 68 of persons born
  outside these countries migrated before the
  Soviet Union dissolution (so cannot be considered
  as international migrants).

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New citizens in Russia
In 1992-2006 Russian citizenship obtained more
than 6 million people
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New citizens in Russia by the country of previous
residence
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Internal migration in Russia

• Five zones (migration in 1991-2003)
• European accepting zone. Accepted 1.9 million
  people due to migration from other parts of
  Russia
• European North and Republics of Northern Caucasus
  lost population (about 20 of population
  received by European accepting zone)
• Eastern out-migration zone 60 of the Russian
  territory but only 10 of population. Provided
  about 60 of population received by European
  accepting zone (strong Western drift)

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Major migration zones of Russia
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Migration rate per 100,000 in 1997
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Proportion of migrants in population ()
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Migration flows in Moscow
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Growth of Moscow population
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After WWII migration to Moscow exceeded natural
increase (rates per 1000)
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Net migration in Russia and Moscow (in thousand)
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Natural and migration increase in Moscow in
1989-2002 (in thousand)
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Migration to Moscow compared to other Russian
regions

• In 2006 only 22 regions out of 80 had positive
  migration rate (increase). Migrants to Moscow
  comprised 46.5 of all migrants.
• In 2007 Moscow migration rate was 48.6 persons
  per 10000 inhabitants. Migration rate in Moscow
  oblast was 111 persons per 10000 (easier to
  register, cheaper housing, lower police racket,
  etc.).
• Few regions are able to compete with Moscow for
  migrants St Petersburg, and Leningrad oblast,
  Krasnodar kray, Tumen.

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Moscow is a city of migrants

• According to 2002 census, 47 of Moscow residents
  were not born in Moscow. This is similar to
  Russia 45 of persons living in Russia were not
  born in Russia (2002 census)
• 27.7 of them arrived in Moscow in 1992-2002
• This is similar to Russia 45 of persons living
  in Russia were not born in Russia (2002 census)
• 2002 labor migrants predominantly from Ukraine,
  Transcaucasia, Moldova and China.
• 2007 labor migrants predominantly from
  Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan

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Structure of permanent and temporary migrants in
Moscow by country of departure in 2007
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Migrants from Transcaucasia
Relative changes in ethnic groups between
censuses. 1989 1.00
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Family status of migrants from Transcaucasia
coming to Moscow
Many migrants (mostly men) come alone and with
friends
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Type of occupation by ethnicity in Moscow
Many migrants from Transcaucasia occupy top
positions
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Proportion of Russians in Moscow and Russia
population is declining
Unlike many world capitals, population of Moscow
still remains very uniform (for example,
proportion of ethnic minorities in Paris is over
29)
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Proportion of men per 1000 women of marriageable
age (20-34) by ethnicity in Moscow (2002 census)
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Ethnic tensions

• According to surveys, 67 of moscovites believe
  in the existence of ethnic tensions
• However, only 12-14 personally encountered
  xenophobic actions
• Unlike many world capitals, migrants to Moscow
  are more complementary to the resident
  population, most of them know Russian. Their
  children born in Moscow lose native language (61
  of Armenian children, 24 of Azerbaijan children)

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Refugees and forced migrants in Russia, 1997
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Forced deportations during Stalin period

• 1941-1942 preventive deportations of
  Germans, Finns, Greeks (about 1.2 million people)
• 1943-1944 deportations of retaliation.
  Crimea tatars, Chechens, Ingush, Balkar,
  Karachaev, Kalmyk
• 1944-1945 preventive deportations in the end of
  WWII (to clean-up the borders). Turks-meskhi
  from Georgia, many nations of Crimea, Western
  parts (Ukraine, Baltic countries). Totally about
  260 thousands

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Forced compensation migrations

• Lands left after deportations showed decline in
  agriculture productivity.
• Forced migration of Russians from nearby regions
  to keep production of collective farms. Many
  forced migrants fled the territories later.