How do we know what we know? What is science compared to other modes of knowing?

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How do we know what we know? What is science
compared to other modes of knowing?
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Review of Types of knowledge

1. Faith belief without firm evidence, on faith,
   metaphysical
2. Investment we know because that is what we have
   invested in by our past actions and beliefs
3. Logic logic may tell us answers math can
   support, but based on simple assumptions that
   themselves may not be true.
4. Authority figures/agents of authority tell us
   so!
5. Science through repeated observation of senses
   (testing!). Some call this positivism

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• What do we mean by political science?
• It is a field of academic inquiry that applies
  theories, systematic methods, and tests to
  describe, explain, and predict political events
  and behavior.
• This is true of the natural sciences and
  typically other areas that use data analysis
  methods, although the substantive topic is
  obviously not politics.

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What do we mean by systematic?

• Taking steps to be as objective and thorough as
  possible in research and typically by following
  principles of science.
• Key problems arise when one is non-systematic
• Inaccurate observations sloppy or incomplete
• Overgeneralization Frank and Kansas?
• Selective observation typically related to ones
  political biases and ideology. For example,
  conservatives may not recognize when they agree
  with liberals but hear instead what they most
  disagree with.

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Positivism (basis for science)

• An objective reality exists that can be analyzed,
  modeled replicated
• Ideas and theories are confronted with facts
• Regularities and patterns are present
• Social reality can be analyzed systematically
• Social reality can be quantified and measured
  systematically
• Example poverty exists and can be measured

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What is Science?

• In some rough form, common to humans as a means
  of reasoning.
• A systematic way to formulate and test research
  questions. Generalization!
• A means of producing useful and reliable
  empirical information (based on evidence).
  Transmissible
• communicable endeavor research must be
  replicable, verifiable

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Science

1. By necessity we make inferences about the world
   around us populations or systems may be too
   complex to analyze in their entirety. Thus, we
   attempt to generalize about phenomena not
   directly observed or tested.
2. Conclusions are uncertain. WHAT? Can we ever
   know for perfect certainty that we are correct
   about our explanations and predictions?

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• Again, TESTING is very important to science. In
  order to make inferences about the world, we must
  compare our ideas and theories to reality.
• We bring evidence to bear when testing hypotheses
  through the analysis of cases in either
• Case Studies
• Focus Groups, Interviews, etc.
• Statistical Analysis Surveys or aggregate data
  on society, economics, legislatures, or history.

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If our theories are found to properly explain our
phenomena of investigation, then they can be used
for prediction. Prediction is a prominent goal
but very difficult in the non-natural sciences,
why? Prediction is hard because unlike atoms or
molecules, people have free will. People can
sometimes be unpredictable even if they often
follow habits and patterns.
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• There are at least four types of research
  questions and projects
• Description -- Who, what, where and when?
• (starting place for most research)
• Explanation -- Why?
• (sciences, both natural and social)
• If we have good explanations, then prediction may
  be possible.

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types of research questions and projects

• Normative -- Should it be?
  (Philosophy/Ethics/ etc.)
• 4. Prescription -- What should we do?
  (Policy and sometimes philosophy, ideally based
  on empirically verified theories or other
  research)

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• As political scientists or others using
  scientific method, we are usually interested in
  explanation, but description must come first and
  then ideally prediction and well informed
  prescription.
• How do we do this? We explain phenomena by
  applying systematic methodologies based on logic
  and theories.
• Here is where the science comes in!!

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What do we mean by systematic and why do you
think it would be good?

• To be systematic means to attempt to be as
  objective as possible by looking at a varied
  amount of data and types of situations.
• To be systematic means to try to reduce
  subjectivity, opinion, bias, and prejudice, which
  may lurk in conventional wisdom, customs,
  legends, and myths.

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An example of a widely believed assertion of
conventional wisdom War is good for a national
economy

• What do you think?
• How do we know this?
• What types of wars should we examine, if any?
• What types of variables are important, or simply
  it is just that simple?

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Through logical reasoning, it would make sense
that wars lead to the demand for goods (weapons
etc.) that results in a increased production,
jobs, and even wages. However, what about other
variables? What if wars are fought on ones own
territory? What if the economy is not fully
mobilized for war? Considering that many wars
are highly destructive for at least one side, if
not both, war must not pay for at least half the
combatants. Factories and infrastructure, or
social costs, may make war too costly.
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• To really answer such a question we require a
  more systematic empirical analysis.
• My own research suggests that this simple
  assertion is untrue, despite being repeatedly
  echoed by politicians, the media, and others.
• In American history, 3 wars appear to have
  stimulated economic growth Civil War (North),
  WWI, and WWII.

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• Considering that WWII was a monumental conflict
  that had a huge impact on many peoples lives, it
  tends to become an object of generalization when
  it is in fact somewhat anomalous.
• The majority of wars in American history were an
  economic drain or too short to have much effect
  Korea, Vietnam, Gulf War I, War of 1812,
  Spanish-American War, War with Mexico.

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• Actually, my research suggests that for most
  countries economic growth increases the
  probability of war, which is then often followed
  by economic stagnation (inflation, destruction of
  infrastructure, social disorder, etc.)

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Beginning Empirical Research Reasoning

• It is important to start with various puzzles or
  research questions based on whether idea for a
  project is stimulated by theory or observation
• Inductive Observation of phenomena lead to
  theory, and then testing.
• Deductive Theory leads to propositions that are
  then tested.

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Social research strategies
Ideas What we think THEORY
DEDUCTIVE REASONING
INDUCTIVE REASONING
DATA Reality What we observe