Web-ATCF, User Requirements and Intensity Consensus

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Web-ATCF, User Requirements and Intensity
Consensus
Presenter Buck Sampson (NRL Monterey) Funded
Participants Ann Schrader (SAIC,
Monterey) Providence Software (Don Hames, Jorge
Rodrigues) NHC Participants Chris Sisko, Chris
Lauer, Alison Krautkramer, James Franklin (NHC)
IHC 2009 St Petersburg, FL
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Overview
1. Web-ATCF ( 90 complete) 2. User Requirements
( 90 complete) 3. Intensity Consensus (complete)
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1. Web-ATCF

• Client
• Windows or Linux (MAC coming soon)
• Launches from web page
• Mobile code (Java Web Start)
• Communication is
• https (SSL) protocol
• works through most firewalls
• Same code base as real ATCF
• Compiled and linked with different libraries
• Some different switches in code

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1. Web-ATCF
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2. User Requirements

• Approximately 50 requirements addressed
• 2007
• Mouse-over Information
• Sidebar
• Run Your Own Consensus dialog
• 2008
• Selectable objective aids
• Partial best track display
• Off-time best track positions
• 2009
• New advisory dialog (in progress)
  

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Partial Best Track Display

IKE (2008) track has been cut off at 00 UTC on
Sep 8th so that the objective aids for that time
can be displayed without clutter.
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Off-Synoptic Positions

IKE (2008) track has a landfall at 02 UTC on
Sep 8th that has been included in the best track.
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NHC Intensity Consensus

• Forecasts are all early models
• Consensus is average (equal weights) forecast
• ICON DSHP LGEM GHMI HWFI
• all must be present to compute
• IVCN DSHP LGEM GHMI HWFI GFNI
• two or more must be present to
  compute
• Baselines for more complex methods
• More info Sampson, C. R., J. L. Franklin, J. L.,
  J. A. Knaff and M. DeMaria, 2007 Experiments
  with a simple tropical cyclone intensity
  consensus. Wea. And Forecasting, 23, 304-312.

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2008 Atlantic Intensity Skill
(381) (326) (262)
(213) (169) (139)


The four top-performing intensity models and
their average (consensus). The consensus
generally outperforms individual models. ICON is
the four-model consensus, and IVCN is a
five-model consensus (IVCNICONGFNI).
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2008 EastPac Intensity Skill
(308) (240) (177)
(121) (80) (50)


The four top-performing intensity models and
their average (consensus). The consensus
generally outperforms individual models. ICON is
the four-model consensus, and IVCN is a
five-model consensus (IVCNICONGFNI).
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Intensity Consensus Summary

• ICON and IVCN both had good years
• GFDN intensity forecasts improvements may
  improve IVCN
• 1D coupling in October 15th , 2008
• 3D coupling in progress